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Old 03-12-2010, 07:37 AM   #421
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I've been following a very bearish blog since last March and they are now starting to take long stock positions.

Textual Healing - Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
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Old 03-12-2010, 07:44 AM   #422
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All I can say is that the rally will continue until TheSweetLife takes a long position
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Old 03-12-2010, 08:11 AM   #423
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I've been following a very bearish blog since last March and they are now starting to take long stock positions.

Textual Healing - Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
OMG! They waited until NOW to start going long!?!?!?!

Audrey

P.S. Read the blog and some of the comments. Those people are in a universe I can't even imagine! Is it just SoCal?
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Old 03-12-2010, 08:17 AM   #424
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Audrey, don't be dissing the 'experts'...
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Old 03-12-2010, 08:27 AM   #425
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Audrey, don't be dissing the 'experts'...
Ooops! Yes - shouldn't do that. My bad!


Audrey
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Old 03-12-2010, 08:43 AM   #426
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I've been following a very bearish blog since last March and they are now starting to take long stock positions.

Textual Healing - Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight
Let me guess: they went short a year ago?
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Old 03-12-2010, 02:58 PM   #427
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The "slopers" are from all over the US. They don't seem to be much of a political bunch so I'm not sure where all the pessimism about the stock market comes from. I think it was just too easy to short the market for too long and make a lot of money.

Hopefully I won't hang on too long but, for right now, I don't think it's over.

Sure has been fun though! What made you guys realize the market had hit bottom? I was getting ready for a cruise last March and I like to read the message boards at cruisecritic. On the Royal Caribbean board was a thread that RCL stock had hit $5. The amount of $5 was insane and so was the fact that I was reading about a stock on a leisure forum. RCL has the most loyal customers - ever....borderline personality, I'll kill the Carnival cruise captain and you watch my back, loyal. No way is that company failing.

It took me two weeks to set up a brokerage account and I bought my first stocks on 3/20 (Then we left on the cruise and I was glued to CNN above the pool the whole time - lol).
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Old 03-12-2010, 03:45 PM   #428
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What made you guys realize the market had hit bottom?
I didn't realize it had hit bottom. I had already rebalanced (buying equities) on Jan 15, after catching two falling knives in 2008. Even though my portfolio was again screaming "rebalance" on March 9, I was literally out of ammo to rebalance with.

Audrey
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Old 03-12-2010, 03:51 PM   #429
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Hopefully I won't hang on too long but, for right now, I don't think it's over.
I can't complain. OK, I could but won't. I'm down roughly 5% from 12/31/07, not including new money. Not the high, but the nearest year end peak. I scaled way back when the DOW rebounded to 9,600. I thought I would get a jump on the next down turn. Heh heh.....still waiting on the next down turn. Oh well......still can't complain. Enjoyed a good comeback and now at a pretty conservative allocation, 25/75.

So you guys could see a bull market for quite sometime seeing I'm in conservative mode.
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Old 03-12-2010, 06:42 PM   #430
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Seems to be real for us Canucks. TSX closed above 12,000
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Old 03-13-2010, 06:03 AM   #431
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Sure has been fun though! What made you guys realize the market had hit bottom?
.
I think the question is a good one. The reality is virtually nobody on the board called the bottom, or if they did it was their 2nd, 3rd or 4th calling of the bottom. There were a couple of folks who predicted the crash based on some very sound analysis. However, what distinguishes this group based on surveys and posting compared to many (most?) retail investosr is the relatively few who completely abandoned stocks during the crash and fled to cash or bond funds.

As I was reading my Schwab investment magazine which featured what investors learned during the crash, I reflected back on this forum.The main take away from the article was that investor who survived the best weren't kids 60s for the Schwab article and that keeping a rein on your emotions was the critical.

Thinking back on the mood of the forum in Oct 08 through March 09. It seems that while most all of us were scared, and many case somewhat shell shocked, there wasn't panic. Rather I saw a fair amount of grim determination to stay the course.

Broadly speaking there are two type of investors on the board. The passive indexers and the active stock or mutual fund pickers. (Although a fair number of the passive investors are reformed active investors.) Among the indexers I recall a lot of people saying I picked my asset allocation and I am sticking to it. A fair number of talked about FIREcalc and pointed out the Trinity study went all the way back to the Great Depression and while this was crises looked really bad it was Great Depression level.


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I was getting ready for a cruise last March and I like to read the message boards at cruisecritic. On the Royal Caribbean board was a thread that RCL stock had hit $5. The amount of $5 was insane and so was the fact that I was reading about a stock on a leisure forum. RCL has the most loyal customers - ever....borderline personality, I'll kill the Carnival cruise captain and you watch my back, loyal. No way is that company failing.
The second type of investor board is the stock picker like myself. I spent a lot of time looking a company balance sheets and income statements during those months, comparing the absurdly low market capitalization with actual company assets. Somewhat like your Royal Caribbean line example. A couple of examples come to mind. Back in Nov 08, Apple was trading in the $80/share. Even though I don't follow Apple closely I looked at the balanced sheet and looked at the 25 billion in cash they held and concluded that Mr. Market was valuing Apple and their great iPhone, iPod, iTunes business and good computer business at ~$50/share. Now I have no clue what Apple stock is worth, but I was confident that was worth a heck of lot more than $50 because the company was generating almost $10/share in cash flow a year. So I invested accordingly.

I also looked at tiny obscure Ohio Waste disposal/Golf course operator. I first bought the stock at $8 because it had $12 worth of assets (Book Value). During the crash the stock dropped to just over $1.50 a share after subtracting out the $1 share in cash, I calculated that I was buying the Golf course, landfill at around $.10-.20 on the dollar. Both stocks have almost tripled since their lows.

I think the key learnings for me is that it isn't really critical to pick the bottom. What is important is to have a clear understanding of what you own and sense of investment history. For me one of the breakthrough moments in investing was realizing that stocks weren't quotes on computer screen who's value seems change almost in a random fashion. Instead they are actual pieces of company,. A company has an intrinsic value based on its current and future profit potential and while Mr. Market will constantly tell you the price of company and the price will fluctuate constantly and rapidly the actually value changes at much slower rate.
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Old 03-13-2010, 07:02 AM   #432
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...Rather I saw a fair amount of grim determination to stay the course.

Broadly speaking there are two type of investors on the board. The passive indexers and the active stock or mutual fund pickers. (Although a fair number of the passive investors are reformed active investors.) Among the indexers I recall a lot of people saying I picked my asset allocation and I am sticking to it.

The second type of investor board is the stock picker like myself. I spent a lot of time looking a company balance sheets and income statements during those months, comparing the absurdly low market capitalization with actual company assets.

...What is important is to have a clear understanding of what you own and sense of investment history.
Excellent post, Clifp.
I will be the first to admit that I do not understand the majority of what goes into individual stock picking. Compared to the general forum membership, I'll assess myself at novice level in that domain. And that's OK.
So I stick with mutual funds, a mix of indexed and actively managed, all low cost. I was looking very hard at the bear market performance of some of the mutual funds I own. Real time data is a glorious thing for an analytical person like me.
I definitely fall into the "sticking with my asset allocation" crowd, although I did do a minor adjustment from 50/50 to 40/60 due to seeing in real time that my theoretical risk level was exceeded in 4Q08.
What I took away from the experience of watching the market go bonkers is a firmer grasp of what I do know, what I don't know, and a better sense of what I need to learn.
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Old 03-13-2010, 07:22 AM   #433
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I was literally out of ammo to rebalance with.
Luckily I had more cash on hand then I normally do but I still had to pare down the number of stocks I wanted to purchase. My insides were screaming mortgage the house and cash out all the I bonds, instead I limited myself to only risking cash on hand *sigh*.

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However, what distinguishes this group based on surveys and posting compared to many (most?) retail investosr is the relatively few who completely abandoned stocks during the crash and fled to cash or bond funds.
You're right about the most. I left my 401K fully invested at 90% stock index funds and rode it out but the majority of people in my daily life went to cash or equivilent in their retirement accounts.

I have learned a lot the last year and I love this forum btw. I had completely forgot it existed .
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Old 03-13-2010, 09:07 AM   #434
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What made you guys realize the market had hit bottom?
Here's what I said then (3/7/09) . . .

Why I'm not selling stocks now


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Many of us have been planning on below average stock returns because of high valuations. Well, those below average returns have already been realized and are now in the rear-view mirror. It's time to start raising your expectations for future returns.
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Old 03-13-2010, 10:24 AM   #435
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Awesome post Clif!
As previously said, very few if anyone 'called the bottom'. It just may seem that way because in this case, staying the course worked very well.
And if you were in the stage of continuing to DCA into stocks/stock funds it most likely worked out really really well for you.
Doing your best to analyze without fear or panic or greed will, in most cases serve you much better than jumping in and out of the market based on fear or panic or greed.
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Old 04-12-2010, 10:55 AM   #436
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Ummm - just noticing that:

The DOW is above 11,000 and the S&P500 is within kissing distance of 1200.

When this thread started on 5-8-2009, the DOW had had a big swing day, ending with a pretty decent rally to close around 8575, and the S&P closed around 930.

Audrey
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Old 04-12-2010, 12:20 PM   #437
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But the S&P will 'soon' be at 740;P
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Old 04-12-2010, 06:10 PM   #438
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The DOW is above 11,000 and the S&P500 is within kissing distance of 1200.
Oh, great, W2R will be along in a moment to administer the coup de grace for yet another bull rally.

It's OK-- I took a little more off the table today. Hard to watch the limit orders blow right through what you thought was an outrageously high number...
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Old 04-12-2010, 06:47 PM   #439
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Oh, great, W2R will be along in a moment to administer the coup de grace for yet another bull rally.
Well, it IS looking pretty good! It just might be time for that pretty soon. (Wheeee!!!)
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Old 04-12-2010, 06:59 PM   #440
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Well, it IS looking pretty good! It just might be time for that pretty soon. (Wheeee!!!)
There it is!
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