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Old 04-14-2010, 07:07 PM   #481
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If we have good numbers on the continuing unemployment claims and earnings keep coming in good...

1225 S$P could be here soon

Y'all better start sellin
Yes it could, but then, the numbers on commercial loan defaults and the impact to the banks will be released. Some say, Q1 gains will be offset by Q2 losses.

Business & Technology | Commercial mortgage delinquencies spike in March | Seattle Times Newspaper
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Old 04-14-2010, 09:15 PM   #482
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Hey now Comrade, I think you need to forget all that bad old free market capitalist fundamental stuff...

Get yourself a big cup of media propaganda and BUY BUY BUY!!!
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Old 04-15-2010, 07:55 AM   #483
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Wow that job number sucks, forclosures are up... Good earnings on the backs of people working harder for less money...

Illinois wants to cut the state police by 1/3, fire 450 cops... My small Chicago suburb is proposing 38 firings...

Rally On!!!!

Oil and stocks up for the time being...
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Old 04-16-2010, 09:57 AM   #484
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Thank god I sold the open slightly in the $$$ this AM

I almost bought Goldman Sucks yesterday figuring they were down a bit and they were gonna have good earnings....

Glad I didn't

I want to see some perp walks...
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Old 04-16-2010, 10:05 AM   #485
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Thank god I sold the open slightly in the $$$ this AM

I almost bought Goldman Sucks yesterday figuring they were down a bit and they were gonna have good earnings....

Glad I didn't

I want to see some perp walks...
No kidding.

S.E.C. Sues Goldman Over Housing Market Deal - NYTimes.com
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Old 04-16-2010, 10:22 AM   #486
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Damn this could get REAL ugly
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:18 AM   #487
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I don't see what the big deal is about GS being charged. The entire world stock market is down because of this?? I guess GS really is all powerful.

The SEC is not going to do anything to harm the banks and hurt the recovery. It will be a slap on the wrist. There must be more to it.
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:24 AM   #488
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Damn this could get REAL ugly
Just a little aftershock.

It's a friday. We've already had "too many" up days in a row. I think it's also an expiration day? A little bad news surprise and a sharp selloff is an expected knee-jerk reaction.

Not clear to me that this has staying power however. Earnings have been fantastic so far and apparently not already in the market and I expect more positive news this month.

Later in the year? Who knows? I am inclined to think that we will have less good news later on and the big rally won't be sustained.

Audrey
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:30 AM   #489
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How scuzzy is Goldman (and others probably too)? You package up a bunch of securities selected by a short seller because he thinks they're garbage and then sell the package to investors as a good security.
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:34 AM   #490
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I guess GS really is all powerful.
Doesn't GS stand for GodSent?
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:34 AM   #491
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Interesting the Asian markets sold off last night, maybe the big boys getting out on inside information...

Isnt GS part of the PPT

Did Blankfiend short his own stock options

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and the FED are gonna be working overtime running the PPT this afternoon

I was looking at a quote for GS yesterday and I could almost feel the evil coming from the screen...

So who's gonna do "Gods work" now

I can't wait for the movie
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Old 04-16-2010, 11:39 AM   #492
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Could this have anything to do with the FINREG bill and beating down Republican opposition

Support is at 1125 S$P

Monday?
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Old 04-16-2010, 12:06 PM   #493
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Could this have anything to do with the FINREG bill and beating down Republican opposition

Support is at 1125 S$P

Monday?
That was my hunch on why the SEC is doing this. I just don't understand the market reaction. Ultimately GS will get a small fine and nothing more.
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Old 04-18-2010, 01:22 PM   #494
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It's just profit taking. A normal reaction to rapidly improving market conditions. I've said this in some other places, and I bet someone's going to step in right away and say it's just crazy, but I think the Dow is going to get to 15,000 within the next 18 months. I say that not because of any economic news that's coming out, but what's happening internally to many companies balance sheets.

I've been going through dozens of annual reports recently and most of them are showing a similar trend of paying off older, more expensive debt with fresh, low interest financing. As a result, even without having more people to sell products to, these companies are showing improvements in net income because there is less interest expense to them. When Intel announced a 4x increase in income, I wasn't at all surprised by that.

So rising corporate income should start to get the hiring process booted up again, and then those people spend, etc., it's a big cycle that just restarts. I'd maintain a hedge in fixed income as the markets rise, at least 25% in a bond aggregate fund should be good. Take profits along the way but don't exit the markets completely, you'd regret that.
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New Shiller Interview
Old 04-18-2010, 01:27 PM   #495
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New Shiller Interview

New Shiller Interview:

WealthTrack Video on Demand
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Old 04-18-2010, 01:45 PM   #496
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It's just profit taking. A normal reaction to rapidly improving market conditions. I've said this in some other places, and I bet someone's going to step in right away and say it's just crazy, but I think the Dow is going to get to 15,000 within the next 18 months. I say that not because of any economic news that's coming out, but what's happening internally to many companies balance sheets.

I've been going through dozens of annual reports recently and most of them are showing a similar trend of paying off older, more expensive debt with fresh, low interest financing. As a result, even without having more people to sell products to, these companies are showing improvements in net income because there is less interest expense to them. When Intel announced a 4x increase in income, I wasn't at all surprised by that.

So rising corporate income should start to get the hiring process booted up again, and then those people spend, etc., it's a big cycle that just restarts. I'd maintain a hedge in fixed income as the markets rise, at least 25% in a bond aggregate fund should be good. Take profits along the way but don't exit the markets completely, you'd regret that.
Wow that is extremely bullish!

It's very nice that someone actually reads the annual reports and can give us a macro view. Thanks!

I've been expecting large cap US stocks to outperform over the next couple of years. For several reasons - one being that they have access to commercial credit markets in our current tight credit environment whereas small companies are more reliant on banks who have not been eager to lend. Another is that with all the cost cutting and slow growth/low inflation environment there is little need for expansion to beat competition, therefore the big caps get to behave more like cash cows. You give me yet another reinforcement of my thesis.

Audrey

P.S. MWaterman - why don't you introduce yourself? (Over on the "Hi, I am...." forum)
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Old 04-18-2010, 01:52 PM   #497
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New Shiller Interview:

WealthTrack Video on Demand
Excellent interview. Quite bearish on both stocks and housing. Thanks for the link.
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Old 04-18-2010, 04:46 PM   #498
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In honor of the excellent Schiller interview, I give you the PE10 chart from the downloadable data on his website.
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.xls
schiller pe10.gif
The current value of 22 is well above the mean of 16, but only a little above the trend line of 20. Well, Schiller doesn't mention a trendline at all. I just put that in to make the bulls feel better.
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Old 04-18-2010, 09:37 PM   #499
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It's very nice that someone actually reads the annual reports and can give us a macro view. Thanks!
+1
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Old 04-19-2010, 12:39 AM   #500
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Wow that is extremely bullish!

It's very nice that someone actually reads the annual reports and can give us a macro view. Thanks!
There's other things too, stuff like lots of new "investors" entering the market or working without a professional adviser for the first time, thinking they made the right decision in firing them. I wouldn't expect them to have a good sense of when things are overpriced.

Interesting to note also in these reports, the companies that are going to benefit the least are the ones carrying very little debt. But then, they never really felt all the pain to begin with I suppose so that seems fair.

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P.S. MWaterman - why don't you introduce yourself? (Over on the "Hi, I am...." forum)
There you go, I put one in.
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