Is this rally for real?

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 I sure as heck don't see the S&P getting as high as 1350 any time soon.

Me neither. However, the market is more likely to go up than down from here. For a CMT like myself, it is good enough reason to buy. No?

[Dawg52]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound Ah, you are talking about me! But I always consider myself a CMT. PS. Portfolio 22% below Oct 07 personal high watermark. Still only 57% in equities. Buy, buy, buy.

I'm now down 'only' 16.5%. A couple of high octane stocks have come back pretty well. So I'm cautiously optimistic with emphasis on 'cautious'. Tough dealing with the target pasted on back.

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg54 I'm now down 'only' 16.5%. A couple of high octane stocks have come back pretty well. So I'm cautiously optimistic with emphasis on 'cautious'. Tough dealing with the target pasted on back.

Nice to see that dent on your forehead is starting to heal.

[REWahoo]

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound However, the market is more likely to go up than down from here. For a CMT like myself, it is good enough reason to buy. No?

Maybe yes, maybe, as these posters point out, no:

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Originally Posted by bsmup In this scenario stocks lose, bonds lose, commodities lose and cash wins simply because everything else loses its value relative to cash.

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Originally Posted by TheSweetLife There are so many economic factors causing the market down swings that it is ridiculous. I believe the worst is yet to come....just my opinion. No, I'm not a pessimist, just a realist.

[NW-Bound]

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Originally Posted by Dawg54 I'm now down 'only' 16.5%.

That's it? Gee, it's only a finger cut, and you made it sound like dismemberment.

Perhaps it's time to start another thread to see who has been down how much.

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ziggy29 Nice to see that dent on your forehead is starting to heal.

Med's baby.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Maybe yes, maybe, as these posters point out, no:

I saw their posts, but I have my own SWAG.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dawg54 A couple of high octane stocks have come back pretty well. So I'm cautiously optimistic with emphasis on 'cautious'.

Watch those high-octane stocks. They make your life exciting, yes?

Having some of the high-octane stocks (materials stocks like metal mining, fertilizer, energy, drybulk shipper and solar energy, etc...) was what allowed me to triple my portfolio from 2003 to 2007, despite being only 70-80% invested. These stocks are very sensitive to the world economy. No, I was not solely invested in them, only a good concentration, else would be a multi-millionaire.

There was no way I could have known to get out at the top, but if I didn't get out in early 2008, would have gotten hurt bad. No finger cut! You are talking dismemberment or disembowelment here, trust me.

You can tell that I like to live dangerously. After surviving a couple of hi-tech startup failures and the tech stock melt-down in 2000, this current downdraft didn't scare me that much.

As Soros (not a hero of mine, but an interesting man) said, your investment decisions reflect your understanding of the real world. My understanding of the world is a bit fuzzy, but sometimes I can see some shadows or shapes through my cataracts.

Sorry for the metaphors, but that has always been my nature.

[REWahoo]

Always interesting to follow up on market prognostications...

5/9:

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Originally Posted by TheSweetLife I think the bear market rally is over. I think next week will be the beginning of a downturn.

5/10:

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Originally Posted by TheSweetLife The rally is over. The downturn will start this week.

5/16:

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Originally Posted by TheSweetLife ...Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks.

5/16:

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Originally Posted by TheSweetLife Yeah, my crystal ball is great....downturn to continue for about a month.

Four and half weeks later, S&P 500:

[NW-Bound]

OH NO! Please, not another "Wheee" post!

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound OH NO! Please, not another "Wheee" post!

No, nothing of the sort. Merely a follow up on market predictions. I'm looking at yours at the moment.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo No, nothing of the sort. Merely a follow up on market predictions. I'm looking at yours at the moment.

Well?

My disclaimer is that I could follow the news around the world -- not just in the US -- to see if the fundamentals were improving, but I could not predict the next "Wheee" outburst.

PS. Portfolio is 21% below high water mark in Oct 07. Could have been a couple of percents better if I did not have to dip into it to pay for college tuitions and for food.

[REWahoo]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Well?

Never mind.

[W2R]

(Wheee!!!?!)

It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood... Just another 500 points or so for the Dow and I will be feeling really great about things.

[NW-Bound]

What!??

That's it! I will sell everything at market open tomorrow, then go short.

[CuppaJoe]

I bought a chunk of S&P index on 6/9. Past performance indicates there will be an immediate dip, a nice buying opportunity, then there will be fluctuations.

[MichaelB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by REWahoo Always interesting to follow up on market prognostications... 5/9: I think the bear market rally is over. I think next week will be the beginning of a downturn 5/10: The rally is over. The downturn will start this week. 5/16: Downturn will continue for the next 4 weeks 5/16: Yeah, my crystal ball is great....downturn to continue for about a month Four and half weeks later, S&P 500:

Hey! Keeping track and actually paying attention takes all the fun out of always being right - and also makes it hard to be smug and always know more than everyone else. Gee whiz. You're no fun to play with. When you were a kid and all your friends were out playing and stuff, I bet you were always the scorekeeper ...

[Running_Man]

Budget woes have Oakland mulling bankruptcy

While I am not as sure that the market will go down now as I was in early March that it would go up, and do think it quite possible this rally has run out of steam. In any case yesterday I reduced my equity to 15 percent from 30 percent after a nice 27 percent run up for the equity portion.

State and city budget preparations for 2010 are going to be reflecting some very painful choices, tax increases, layoffs and service cutbacks all of which will tend to drag the economy and with it the stock market down for another leg. On top of that the continued need to fund the "stimulus plan" will be resulting in some interesting financing needs.

With good fortune I will be totally mistaken but that is not the risk I want to take at this time.

[unclemick]

Hmmm - Target Retirement 2015 on full auto - those Vanguard computers don't talk much - they just rebalance away.

I think the Norwegian widow may wait til fooball season before shifting deck chairs on the Titanic - I mean selling a few fallen angels and buying a few more good dividend stocks.

Soooo - where does one buy those plastic D-fense signs fans wave in the stadiums on tv?

heh heh heh - Ballpark back to within -12% of peak 2007 but I plan to spend another 3% (to make it -15%) cause I'm not getting any younger. .

Stay the course. Press on regardless. Hurry up, just stand there. A little Bogle to buck ya up. Anywise hormones require that I dink with a few Norwegian widow stocks - especially if the Saints look a little punky at the start of the season.

[TheSweetLife]

Hey, it's the lady with the crystal ball. I realize the downturn has been an upturn; however, my last post said downturn to continue for about a month. The month ends on 16 June. Can you at least give me until then to see where we're at? Anything's possible in this market!