Is this rally for real?

James5v said:
What do you guys think of this opinion?
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I think his disclaimer says it all:
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.
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The rally is a SUCKER rally........you heard it here first........
 
It just seems to me that the news reports such as on CNBC sound much more positive than the data suggest. And since most of the people they interview are people who make money from trading stocks it makes one wonder.
 
James5v said:
It just seems to me that the news reports such as on CNBC sound much more positive than the data suggest. And since most of the people they interview are people who make money from trading stocks it makes one wonder.
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CNBC is hype. A few months ago it was hype that we're doomed and stocks are going to zero. We rally for a couple of months, and it's hype extolling irrational exuberance.

The best thing a long-term individual investor can do for their "inner peace" and their blood pressure is to turn off CNBC unless they recognize it as 100% entertainment value and 0% financial advice.
 
FIREdreamer said:
I wonder if 'treasury bubble' is as funny now as it was back then...
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I was going to say something mean about long term treasuries being the worst performing asset class year to date, but I decided not to be mean.

Maybe if Honobob and Architect team up to downplay the existence of bubbles in the future, then we won't have any more burst bubbles.
 
If it is not real, then I can still sell. I am still 16% above the bottom in Nov 08.

So, what is the problem? :whistle:
 
REWahoo said:
You've obviously not been reading the board (or this thread) in the last couple of months...

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/showpost.php?p=795808&postcount=6
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/showpost.php?p=796050&postcount=12
http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/showpost.php?p=814185&postcount=15
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I meant "FIRST" as "MOST RECENT". The euphoria over statements folks are getting mailed to them over previous months mean a lot of folks think things are "getting back to normal". That is FAR from the truth.........;)

You could try being nicer to people, it might help......:angel:
 
FinanceDude said:
I meant "FIRST" as "MOST RECENT".
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Ahhhh. You meant "first" as in "last". :cool:

first: 1. being before all others with respect to time, order, rank, importance, etc., used as the ordinal number of one: the first edition; the first vice president.

last: 1. occurring or coming after all others, as in time, order, or place: the last line on a page. 2. most recent; next before the present; latest: last week; last Friday.
FinanceDude said:
You could try being nicer to people, it might help......:angel:
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Hey, I'm willing to try anything if it will keep the market going up. You need any help getting across the street? Carrying your bags? ;)
 
Yeah but - it's not football yet.

Right?

Are we supposed to watching something? - I mean it is off season.

heh heh heh - 85% Target Retirement 2015, 15% Norwegian widow stocks with divs swept to MM.

Ya gotta love full auto. Geaux Saint's, go stocks -this season's for real. :ROFLMAO::angel:.
 
FinanceDude said:
The rally is a SUCKER rally........you heard it here first........
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First, really? That's strange, because just about everyone else I know also says its a sucker's rally. Funny thing is that they're all waiting to buy the next leg down . . . wonder how that's going to work out when everyone seems to be playing from exactly the same play book.
 
I also believe that the worse is not over; however, I watch as the market continues to move in an upward direction while I receive less than 1% on my government MMFs'.

So when does the market begin its retreat or is it just going to stay around current levels for another year or so? Also, what about the credit card debt in the country? What about future inflation? I could go on and on.
 
James5v said:
So when does the market begin its retreat or is it just going to stay around current levels for another year or so? Also, what about the credit card debt in the country? What about future inflation? I could go on and on.
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The "conventional wisdom" is that this is already "baked in" to the markets. And to a significant degree, I think it is. The question then becomes: will these potential negative factors wind up being worse than expected or not? If the market is expecting bad news that registers '9' on a 10 scale (10 being the worst) and it only gets news that registers a '7', even though it's still bad news the markets can rally because it's not as bad as the market was pricing into it. Similarly, if it came in as a '10', it could fall hard.
 
The worst is not over. Since "everyone knows" its a sucker rally, why are stocks being bid up? There must be more suckers than I ever imagined. The market is ripe for a 20-25% correction by the end of summer. Not EVERYTHING is pirced into the market........
 
With the advent of the inverse ETF's (bearish funds that go up as their underlying indices go down), investors can easily short anything they like. The "nice" things about these ETFs are that they are safer than traditional shorts, in that you can lose only all of what you put down. There are even 2x and 3x bearish funds that supposedly go up much more than their indices going down (in the short term that is). Hurray!!!

So, bears like thesweetlife can even use these funds to short the market inside an IRA, which was not possible before. It is a free country, and we still have free speech and can invest however we like. It is great. I love it.
 
I can't help but wonder how much these "inverse" ETFs and these "ultrashort" leveraged bear market funds (and for that matter the leveraged "ultralong" ETFs) are having on market volatility. We're making it so much easier for the average (and sometimes uninformed) investors to short the market and use leverage, and I'm not sure that's a good thing for those individuals or for the stability of the market as a whole.
 
I am not sure, but the few I looked at have relatively small market caps ($1B or so). Surely they can cause some ripples in the market, but probably not tsunami waves.
 
The inverse ETFs aren't the cause of the down swings. There are so many economic factors causing the market down swings that it is ridiculous. I believe the worst is yet to come....just my opinion. No, I'm not a pessimist, just a realist.
 
NW-Bound said:
I am not sure, but the few I looked at have relatively small market caps ($1B or so). Surely they can cause some ripples in the market, but probably not tsunami waves.
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I think you're right under normal, relatively calm market conditions. But not too many months ago when the VIX was hitting all time highs, I was seeing a huge spike in volume on these leveraged ultralong and short ETFs (mostly the short).
 
ziggy29 said:
I can't help but wonder how much these "inverse" ETFs and these "ultrashort" leveraged bear market funds (and for that matter the leveraged "ultralong" ETFs) are having on market volatility. We're making it so much easier for the average (and sometimes uninformed) investors to short the market and use leverage, and I'm not sure that's a good thing for those individuals or for the stability of the market as a whole.
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What's not to like? Higher volumes, higher liquidity, more active markets, lower bid/ask spreads. More price discovery. Higher revenues due to higher transaction costs for the market intermediaries = more profits for owners of financials like us. :)

At the end of the year, does it really matter whether the market was up or down more than a percent half the days during the year? For buy and hold types, the answer is generally no.
 
One can argue that the sellers or bears may do good deeds by reducing the growth of any potential bubble. In 2000, I was swept up in the tech bubble, and I swore no more. Came 2007 and the housing bubble, I knew enough to stay away from home builder stocks and financial stocks, but still got hurt. There might have been inverse ETFs on these crooked financial companies then, but I did not think of it. Yeah, short them to the ground, all these bankers. I would not make much money, but at least enough to cancel out the losses on my other "innocent" stocks.

PS. Wouldn't short financials now. In fact I should look into buying some. They have fallen off their horses, and the ones that did not die after being dragged deserve another life. :LOL:
 
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