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Old 09-10-2008, 02:43 PM   #201
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I suppose there may be fear of political change and an expansion of federal direct loan programs, but that is a possibility not at all a reality yet. This kind of thing can get very expensive to an already overburdened treasury.
That's my guess...... Fear of a Dem win and them having the gov't grow it's involvement with student loans in direct competition with SLM.

But gee..... these prices are attractive to us greedy folks! If SLM caved in and the bond holders got only 60% ($15) of PAR, they still make a capital gain.... and collect 12% - 13% interest in the meantime.

It's kind of falling into the "too good to be true category" for me.
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Old 09-10-2008, 02:45 PM   #202
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There is an unusually large offer of 3000 shares at $13.98.
Where are you looking to see that info?
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Old 09-10-2008, 02:59 PM   #203
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Where are you looking to see that info?
Just go to your broker's internet page and a bid size and offer size should be shown as part of the quote. I just looked at Vanguard and the market for ISM was:

13.82 - 13.97 the size was 1 x 6 which means 100 shs bid and 600 shs offered at those prices

For OSM it was:

14.60 - 14.78 the size was 10 x 3
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Old 09-10-2008, 03:54 PM   #204
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Just go to your broker's internet page and a bid size and offer size should be shown as part of the quote. I just looked at Vanguard and the market for ISM was:

13.82 - 13.97 the size was 1 x 6 which means 100 shs bid and 600 shs offered at those prices

For OSM it was:

14.60 - 14.78 the size was 10 x 3
Thanks! I went and checked and sure'nuff, there it was.
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Old 09-10-2008, 07:07 PM   #205
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It might mean that the bond holders know more than the equity holders.
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Old 09-10-2008, 07:13 PM   #206
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It might mean that the bond holders know more than the equity holders.
Have you seen the trading volume on these things? Hard to put much confidence in that.

Ha
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Old 09-10-2008, 07:32 PM   #207
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Maybe the bondholders are just more terrified than the equity holders.

I figure people who bought the bonds in the last two years since just before the CEO went batshit bought them planning to keep them until maturity. Hence the volume.
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Old 09-10-2008, 07:38 PM   #208
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The interesting thing will be to see what happens to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bond holders. Has anybody looked the prices of their bonds or other SLM bonds?
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Old 09-11-2008, 11:25 AM   #209
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I've been following this one for a while. Just arbed 500 sh of ISM out at 13.63 and got into OSM at 13.70 to replace the 500 sh of ISM, plus I added another 100 sh of OSM on the same trade to bring me to 600 sh OSM. The spread between ISM and OSM when ISM is at 13.63 works out to about $0.60 in OSM's favor (ie OSM at 14.23 ~ ISM at 13.63). So I picked up maybe $0.50 a share in "value" after commissions. And a nice juicy short term capital gains loss (that's been happening a lot this year...).

All play money, BTW. Looks like the spreads are widening back out now. Let's hope this one doesn't go belly up. The common holders must not be worried about that...

Anybody look at JSM? It was selling at half off par last I checked earlier today.
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:06 PM   #210
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I am sure you ISM/OSM Diehards have been glued to this one. I've been glued, and also buying some. Today for example all the debt that trades on the NYSE-ISM, OSM, JSM went down pretty strong. But SLM, the common, went up on good volume.

As far as I can tell, though there have been some negative news items, there are more important positive ones. Plus, money for college has to come from somewhere since not too many save adequately for it.

One thing for sure- I am really glad I got out of my oversized position a year ago or whenever the JC Flowers thing first hit. Still, I am happy to build a part of it back. We'll see if I am right or wrong.

Ha
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Old 09-16-2008, 06:15 PM   #211
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Holy frijoles...ISM under $12...

How low can she go?
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Old 09-16-2008, 08:04 PM   #212
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The interesting thing will be to see what happens to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bond holders. Has anybody looked the prices of their bonds or other SLM bonds?
This has to be compared to unsecured debt. From quantum online (http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm) on ISM:
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The Notes are Medium Term Notes, Series A, which are unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the company and will rank equally with all existing and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the company.
A typical Fannie Mae unsecured is NYSE, New York Stock Exchange > Listings > Listings Directory
which closed today about $2.50 (this was a $50 preferred)

Regarding ISM, I feel folks pain on this one. I have 500 ISM, $10,600 cost basis, $5950 current value...sitting in an IRA so no tax loss
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Old 09-16-2008, 08:28 PM   #213
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This has to be compared to unsecured debt. From quantum online (http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm) on ISM:
A typical Fannie Mae unsecured is NYSE, New York Stock Exchange > Listings > Listings Directory
which closed today about $2.50 (this was a $50 preferred)
This really isn't comparable, since it is preferred stock, not unsecured debt. As I understand it, the way the conservatorship will work is, no preferred dividends on FNM or FRE will be paid until the gov't receives its 10% on its Senior Preferred. Also, the FNM preferred is non-cumulative, so any missed dividend is gone forever. ISM/OSM rank ahead of any SLM preferred in the pecking order.
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Old 09-16-2008, 10:20 PM   #214
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This really isn't comparable, since it is preferred stock, not unsecured debt. As I understand it, the way the conservatorship will work is, no preferred dividends on FNM or FRE will be paid until the gov't receives its 10% on its Senior Preferred. Also, the FNM preferred is non-cumulative, so any missed dividend is gone forever. ISM/OSM rank ahead of any SLM preferred in the pecking order.
Don't confuse us with facts, common sense, and SEC documents...
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Old 09-16-2008, 11:38 PM   #215
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This really isn't comparable, since it is preferred stock, not unsecured debt. As I understand it, the way the conservatorship will work is, no preferred dividends on FNM or FRE will be paid until the gov't receives its 10% on its Senior Preferred. Also, the FNM preferred is non-cumulative, so any missed dividend is gone forever. ISM/OSM rank ahead of any SLM preferred in the pecking order.
You're right. In my haste to answer the question of how it might compare to Fannie/Freddie, I picked a bad example (the FNM preferred stock). So, if SLM goes down the tubes it most likely won't trade @ 2.50/50 = 5 cents on the $. However, it is unsecured.
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Old 09-16-2008, 11:40 PM   #216
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Don't confuse us with facts, common sense, and SEC documents...
Do you have a current opinion on this at this price?
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Old 09-16-2008, 11:51 PM   #217
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You're right. In my haste to answer the question of how it might compare to Fannie/Freddie, I picked a bad example (the FNM preferred stock). So, if SLM goes down the tubes it most likely won't trade @ 2.50/50 = 5 cents on the $. However, it is unsecured.
Would you expect to get a 15% yield on adequately secured debt? (JSM)

Ha
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Old 09-17-2008, 12:02 AM   #218
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Would you expect to get a 15% yield on adequately secured debt? (JSM)

Ha
Brilliant!

that is all/Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know

15% yield pretty much tells the story, don't it?

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Old 09-17-2008, 12:14 AM   #219
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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
This has to be compared to unsecured debt. From quantum online (http://www.quantumonline.com/search.cfm) on ISM:
A typical Fannie Mae unsecured is NYSE, New York Stock Exchange > Listings > Listings Directory
which closed today about $2.50 (this was a $50 preferred)

Regarding ISM, I feel folks pain on this one. I have 500 ISM, $10,600 cost basis, $5950 current value...sitting in an IRA so no tax loss
I got an info email from Schwab saying that unsecured debt of AIG is currently estimated to pay owners 60% to 80% of par when it all washes out. If SLM craps out and I got 70% of par, I'd be OK.
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Old 09-17-2008, 12:16 AM   #220
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Anyone else find it hilarious that some folks are wigging out about losing 10-20% on their equities, while others are okay with a 30% loss on a bond?
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