Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 08-12-2017, 08:53 AM   #21
Recycles dryer sheets
Rianne's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Milwaukee
Posts: 175
As much as I like Mark Cuban, I think he's cute, he said the market would crash when Trump is elected. He said he's selling his stock if this happens. Really? He's not saying much these days.
__________________

__________________
Rianne is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-13-2017, 11:48 AM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,662
This thread contains much criticism of what Jim Rogers said but no discussion. The major points are:

1) Declines and problems are not unusual in the US historically have come every 4-8 years

2) The next decline will be the worst in our lifetimes, so that to me would signify a call for a decline worse than the 1973-1974 economy.

3) There is little one can do to protect against a decline but investors should be careful and only invest in what the investor themselves know about - in other words do not invest based on another’s advice only based on your own intellect.

4) He owns gold but is neither buying or selling at the present time but expects big up and down moves in gold and if gold were to drop $1,000 an ounce he will load up on gold.

5) He is primarily invested in agriculture and US dollars - (short term treasuries), Rogers is not advocating those as investments of choice.

I think he has his opinion that the market is set to have a major decline, and from listening to him before he is of the opinion because central banks have not allowed natural corrections to run their course. This is basically in opposition to those who believe no matter how bad economy gets the FED will protect investors. Other than that his advice is to learn about investments and invest in what you know, I think that is actually solid advice.

I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline, as they are not that unusual in the world of investments. If one is panicked, or believe he is somehow making a living by being a scare-monger then I think that is a mischaracterization of Jim Rogers and missing his major points. Discussion of finance topics should one area in the world to withstand a discussion of ideas without leading to an idea that somehow the financial investing science has been “settled"
__________________

__________________
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 11:58 AM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,844
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline, as they are not that unusual in the world of investments.
Good advice, but '70-80% decline is not that unusual' might be overstated - only once in US history so far. Despite his major points, Rogers has been wrong since 2010 (see post #5). If you predict doom every year, you have to be right eventually.

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 12:06 PM   #24
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 15,700
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
.... The major points are:

..... 2) The next decline will be the worst in our lifetimes, so that to me would signify a call for a decline worse than the 1973-1974 economy.

..... I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline, as they are not that unusual in the world of investments....
Where is your proof for the statement that the next decline will be the worst of our lifetimes? While some people may think that will happen it is probably more likely that it will not be the "worst" of our lifetimes.

I have no idea what will happen but it doesn't really matter much.... I'll just keep with my 60/35/5 AA, rebalance opportunistically and hope for the best.

WADR, to say that a 70-80% decline is "not that unusual in the world of investments" is crazy talk. There has only been one decline anywhere near that severe... in 1929... and there are many protections put in place after that crash. Besides, if one has a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, the decline would be mitigated by the stability of bonds.

__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 12:11 PM   #25
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 39
Apparently mine is a minority opinion around here, but I'm amazed it hasn't crashed already. Interest rates were dropped to near zero (in some countries below zero) to combat the financial crisis 10 YEARS AGO and STILL haven't risen (suggesting we're still in a crisis??).
Sure the stock markets bounced nicely after the '07-09 crash... but at the same time we have central banks/governments are now among the largest market owners (printing the money to buy assets):
"Back in April, Bank of America noted that central banks had purchased $1 trillion in assets this year alone. Now, that includes bonds more than it does stocks; but globally it tells us that quantitative easing continues at a massive scale,"

it all looks like a casino and "the house always wins".
__________________
Spock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 05:38 PM   #26
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,372
Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr View Post
This one idiot has scared my parents (in their 80's) so much they have gone to 100% CDs.
Be grateful. They could do much worse.
__________________
foxfirev5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 06:31 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 1,633
As a believer in contrarianism, the more people who are worried or calling for crashes, the better. Markets top out when people are giddy and complacent, not when they are scared.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 06:34 PM   #28
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Bend
Posts: 228
Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr View Post
This one idiot has scared my parents (in their 80's) so much they have gone to 100% CDs.
Well I think Jim would prefer they go to Gold.

Noticed this line at the bottom of the article:
This expert take on gold and the markets is brought to you by Live Gold Prices | Gold News | Gold Market Insights | KITCO.

Kitco is a Gold company. Jim may not even know that he wrote that article. It's an advertising piece
__________________
Scrapr is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 06:49 PM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 458
If I would have changed my investment strategy based on the gloom and doom crowd my net worth would be 50% less that what little I have now.

I'm surprised that folks don't call these folks out more often on their past predictions. IMHO there is a big difference between investing and "trading" or market timing. If I were into that I'd test my luck at the roulette table in Vegas. Ha.
__________________
56 now ER'd at 55 (Megacorp 31 yrs). Still figuring out *retirement*. Company pension and 70/30 asset mix. New to the ER game....
supernova72 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 08:04 PM   #30
Dryer sheet wannabe
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Central FL
Posts: 22
These folks, and the networks that control the volume of their megaphone, depend on this sort of headline to ring the cash register. I'm not real keen on participating for their enrichment. Sooner or later the market will give back some of its past gains. We don't know when, or how much. It's always good to think about how much risk you are taking in light of these certainties.
__________________
swguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 08:24 PM   #31
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Cobra9777's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Texas
Posts: 1,099
DW and I structured our early retirement plan to have very little reliance on portfolio withdrawals. We both elected the annuity option on our pensions, even though one is non-COLA, one is partial COLA, and both have very average payout ratios. FIRECalc history says we probably would have been better off investing the lump sums. We both started collecting immediately as well. We paid off the mortgage and bought two rental houses. Again, history says we likely would have been better off keeping all that money invested.

We also tilted the taxable portfolio toward real estate and high-dividend ETFs so that the average yield is 3.2%. Once again, history says we likely gave up some growth potential for steady cashflow. We do have a gap that requires selling some shares in taxable from time to time. But that selling activity is more than offset by reinvestments in the tax-deferred accounts. So in reality, our WR is less than the overall portfolio dividend rate. We are 56 and 57 currently, so SS FRA is still way off in the future, but could be pulled in to 62 if the SHTF.

This was all driven by fear of a major correction right after we retired. Whatever happens, and whenever it happens, all I know is that we'll still be a bit panicky. But knowing that all that cash is flowing in without selling shares will hopefully help us get through the ordeal without doing something dumb. Time will tell if the price was too high. But I'm not the type to risk the whole game to run up the score.
__________________
Retired at 52 in July 2013. On to better things...
AA: 55% stock, 15% real estate, 27% bonds, 3% cash
WR: 2.0% SI: 2 pensions, some rental income, SS later
Cobra9777 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 08:34 PM   #32
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,662
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Where is your proof for the statement that the next decline will be the worst of our lifetimes? While some people may think that will happen it is probably more likely that it will not be the "worst" of our lifetimes.

I have no idea what will happen but it doesn't really matter much.... I'll just keep with my 60/35/5 AA, rebalance opportunistically and hope for the best.

WADR, to say that a 70-80% decline is "not that unusual in the world of investments" is crazy talk. There has only been one decline anywhere near that severe... in 1929... and there are many protections put in place after that crash. Besides, if one has a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, the decline would be mitigated by the stability of bonds.

First I did not make a statement that the next decline will be the worst in our lifetime — I was merely stating one of the points Rogers made. I did make the statement that a 70-80 % decline is not that unusual in the world of INVESTMENTS. Investments are not the US stock market

By 1948 the German stock market fell 99 percent, which had been the world’s second largest free market economy in 1913 -- 35 years earlier (Great Britain was third) and this was the second 90+ decline for Germany during that 35 year period


In 1980 Silver fell from $49 per ounce to under $8.00 an ounce a few years later a wipeout of over 80 percent.

in 1990 Japan had the world’s second largest economy with a GDP exceeding 3 Trillion dollars, their stock market was 66% of the total capitalization of the world stock market EX-US. From the peak of 39,000 the Nikkei fell to under 8,000. a fall of 80 percent. Today the GDP of Japan is a little over 4 trillion.

In 2000 the NASDAQ reached 4,688 it would fall to 1,139 a fall of about 75 percent.


In 2007 Iceland was rated the top country in the world by the Human Development Index of the United Nations. Tops in the entire world for economic and civic life. Between 2008-2011 the Iceland stock market fell over 90 percent as the financial crisis devastated Iceland as the overburden of debt destroyed the financial system


In 2014 West Texas Intermediate oil was priced at over $110 per barrel, it fell to under $26, a 76% drop.

These examples are only a few from major world economies and major investments. The belief that it is “crazy talk” to think that the world stock market or the US market — with a demographic and debt pattern remarkably similar to Japan in the 1980’s could occur is to me wrong.

Unlike Rogers I do not see any immediate cause that will result in a drop of the magnitude he forsees, and I would not be surprised he is totally wrong, in fact I truly hope he is totally wrong, but that is easy to plan for. Equally I would not be surprised if he was correct. I think the rapidity in which financial fortunes can change are adequately displayed in the charts shown. Rogers advocates farm land and short term cash, something a man of his wealth can afford to do, I cannot see dropping ever going forward below my 25% minimum common stock holdings and I am above this level as of right now.

In general I see a world that is deflationary in nature with an aging US population spending less as time goes on being reinforced by technology dropping costs over a wide swath of the economy, and expect very low rates to continue for some time, but I am quite willing to admit this forecast could go wrong at any time, but I do have a portfolio plan to handle this.
__________________
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 09:31 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,338
Quote:
Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
F

Unlike Rogers I do not see any immediate cause that will result in a drop of the magnitude he forsees, and I would not be surprised he is totally wrong, in fact I truly hope he is totally wrong, but that is easy to plan for. Equally I would not be surprised if he was correct. I think the rapidity in which financial fortunes can change are adequately displayed in the charts shown. Rogers advocates farm land and short term cash, something a man of his wealth can afford to do, I cannot see dropping ever going forward below my 25% minimum common stock holdings and I am above this level as of right now.

In general I see a world that is deflationary in nature with an aging US population spending less as time goes on being reinforced by technology dropping costs over a wide swath of the economy, and expect very low rates to continue for some time, but I am quite willing to admit this forecast could go wrong at any time, but I do have a portfolio plan to handle this.
Very well said. A certainty on this forum is that any public figure (like Rogers) who questions the happy days ahead, or at least reasonably contained days ahead gets called out with various attempts to undermine his/her credibility. Jimmie Rogers is no mere talking ahead, he has success as an investor. It is hard to get these things right, and the likeliest bet is almost always more of the same. This however is not necessarily the safest bet. Many of us are retired, others while not retired taste it in our mouths, and realistically would have real difficulty recovering on schedule from a decline like 1973-74, 1999-2002, or 2007-2009. And furthermore, there is a usually unspoken assumption that markets are like amusement park rides. The cars plummet down, and then they rise right back up. That has been our experience here in US markets, during the investing lifetimes of anyone here and our parents' investing lifetimes too. So we have learned not only to hang on, but to buy the dips. But what happens if the next dip is like Japan in 1989? We tend to have a glib but perhaps shallow understanding. Every cycle is a new experience, and our lives are depressingly finite.

Successful investors like Jeremy Grantham admit that the market is quite high, but say that unless inflation jumps or profit margins fall it likely will not crash. My question to me is, "Do I feel lucky?". Maybe not that lucky, so I am going much lower on equities than other recent times. I might feel disappointed if I miss another up-move, but what I really don't want to ever feel is colossally stupid. If I took a 40-50% total portfolio hit, I would cry, and not just once.

Ask yourselves, do I /we have pensions and inflation protected annuities to make all my necessary commitments? I know I don't.

Ha
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 10:22 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 15,700
Yup.... when you lose a world war your stock market gets creamed.... hardly a surprise. I guess I'll be a stupid redneck and take my chances that the US will NOT lose a world war during my lifetime... a risk I'm willing to assume.

Second, what relevance does German stocks, silver, Japanese stocks, crude, Icelandic stock or even just the NASDAQ have to do with the investments of people on these boards?

You said "I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline"... given that you are writing to people on this forum, who generally invest in diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds, why would we think that you were referring to someting as narrow and irrelevant as German stocks, or crude oil or the NASDAQ when you used the term "investments". Did you spend all afternoon congering up this lame defense of what you wrote?

The only sensible thing that you have said is that you would not be surprised if Rogers were totally wrong.... given his recent history of dire predictions that never come true... you got yourself a winner there.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 10:35 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
timo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Rio Rancho
Posts: 1,426
alarmists are always right....eventually. It just depends upon which alarmist gets lucky with their scary predictions.
__________________
"The natural inclination of every boat everywhere is to sink".......Nicole Pasulka
timo2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2017, 10:38 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 15,700
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha View Post
..... Jimmie Rogers is no mere talking ahead, he has success as an investor. ...
Jim Rogers is worth about $300 million... hardly a successful investor. It takes over $1.5 billion to crack into the top 400 richest on Forbes list. Rogers is a true wacko if you read what he has written and said.

Meanwhile, his co-founder of the Quantum Fund, George Soros, is worth $25 billion, #19 on the list.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2017, 05:01 AM   #37
Full time employment: Posting here.
dixonge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Ajijic
Posts: 838
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrapr View Post
Well I think Jim would prefer they go to Gold.

Noticed this line at the bottom of the article:
This expert take on gold and the markets is brought to you by Live Gold Prices | Gold News | Gold Market Insights | KITCO.

Kitco is a Gold company. Jim may not even know that he wrote that article. It's an advertising piece
This article would fit right in at ZeroHedge. I'll be *shocked* if they haven't already linked to it...
__________________
dixonge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2017, 05:19 AM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,621
Quote:
Originally Posted by jollystomper View Post
I never see these people held accountable for their wrong predictions. I can never recall anyone of the financial shows who are predicting something being asked "but you predicted such-and-such 5 times in the past and it never happened, why should we listen to you now?" Or even "what percentage of your past predictions were accurate and can you document that?"
I wish there was a website somewhere that tracked all these predictions! Market crashes, political issues, doom, gloom and even booms.

30 years ago they said that we were supposed to be completely out of oil by now, freezing due to global cooling, eating dog food due to a massive market crash and the Japanese were going to own everything in this country!
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2017, 05:22 AM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,621
One man's meltdown is another man's massive buying opportunity!
__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2017, 07:46 AM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,338
Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
Jim Rogers is worth about $300 million... hardly a successful investor. It takes over $1.5 billion to crack into the top 400 richest on Forbes list. Rogers is a true wacko if you read what he has written and said.

Meanwhile, his co-founder of the Quantum Fund, George Soros, is worth $25 billion, #19 on the list.
True I guess, if you are worth $400 million. Otherwise, I'll take his opinion.

Ha
__________________

__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Mr. Rogers Remixed Purron Other topics 7 06-09-2012 06:30 PM
Ginger Rogers at 92 (NOT) Alan Health and Early Retirement 13 03-15-2012 10:01 PM
Jim Rogers Sells Manhattan Home FIRE'd@51 Other topics 25 02-17-2008 03:33 PM
Jim Cramer meltdown - hilarious!!! wildcat Other topics 38 08-25-2007 03:56 AM
Poor Jim Rogers wildcat Other topics 2 10-19-2005 05:27 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:33 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.