Jim Rogers warns of meltdown

[street]

Just wondering if anyone else read this article. I usually don't take the time to read things with a headline of a prediction but I did. I would say right or wrong we all should have a plan and know our risk limits. I can speak just for myself but I still won't change anything and will not panic and wait out the storm for portfolio to regain numbers.
The Coming Meltdown Will Rock Your Life in Unimaginable Ways, Jim Rogers Warns

 

[Dawg52]

I'm not discounting his prediction, but he has been a bear for a while. Hope he's wrong.

 

[pb4uski]

Well he said this in 2010:

Speaking in an interview with business television channel CNBC, the septuagenarian investor said that "since the beginning of time" there has been a recession every four-to-six years, and that's mean another one is due around 2012.

He's a quack who is milking past glory... there are a lot of them out there.

 

[Nemo2]

Well, there's this:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/e...ke-jim-rogers-provide-no-value-144747654.html

 

[REWahoo]

I think this sums up Mr. Rogers credibility very nicely:

I Just Accidentally Discovered That a World-Renowned Investor Is Full of Sh!t

https://thehustle.co/jim-rogers-recession

 

[MichaelB]

This is really about market timing so the thread was moved to the appropriate forum.

 

[Lcountz]

Shotgun approach.

Sooner or later the market WILL crash.

And then, he will crow that "See I was right!!!!"

 

[pb4uski]

Sounds like someone who is frequently in the news over the last 6-12 months.

 

[street]

Lol! I like the phrase "it is just noise" which I learned here. Anyone can make a prediction or has an opinion but no one knows the future. These article can do one thing and that is to make us aware of a down time and how we can survive and handle the situation.

 

[Senator]

Even if the market crashed by 50%, I will still be up by staying in the market as long as I have.

At some point, he will be right. Other countries will have a bad time first, that can be a canary in the coal mine.

 

[atmsmshr]

This one idiot has scared my parents (in their 80's) so much they have gone to 100% CDs.

 

[MichaelB]

I think this sums up Mr. Rogers credibility very nicely:

https://thehustle.co/jim-rogers-recession

Based on that article, I'd wait until Rogers predicts smooth sailing and good times for all, then sell everything.

I think there's nothing wrong with listening to and even following the advice of profesional financial advice-givers. It only makes sense, though, when you listen to the same individual or organization over a long period of time, and find their advice useful across that entire period.

No matter what fear we have or view we hold, we can always find someone to tell us we're correct, and feed that flame. IMO this is the absolute worst mistake an investor can make. This is why it is so critical to filter out all the noise.

 

[braumeister]

No matter what fear we have or view we hold, we can always find someone to tell us we're correct, and feed that flame.

And what few realize is that we are far, far more likely to believe those sources than others.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

 

[wmc1000]

no worries here - no need to touch investments until 2034 and then only if SS takes a haircut.

 

[Koogie]

A predilection for doom and gloom also seems to increase with age. Especially in males.

My business partners father has been predicting the collapse of markets and broader society for years. He is a survivor of the post war years in Germany though, so can be forgiven it to a certain degree because of his experiences.

 

[Chuckanut]

Never heard of the guy.

We really need a Luis Rukeyser like figure to step in and start talking some sense when the self-appointed gurus start shooting off their mouths.

luis rukeyser on 20% market crash - Bing video

 

[Midpack]

Shotgun approach.

Sooner or later the market WILL crash.

And then, he will crow that "See I was right!!!!"

+1. Sad, reminds me of Elaine Garzarelli and many, many others. Being right once on a major move can make an FA wealthy even if they're never right again...

 

[jollystomper]

I never see these people held accountable for their wrong predictions. I can never recall anyone of the financial shows who are predicting something being asked "but you predicted such-and-such 5 times in the past and it never happened, why should we listen to you now?" Or even "what percentage of your past predictions were accurate and can you document that?"

 

[Midpack]

I never see these people held accountable for their wrong predictions. I can never recall anyone of the financial shows who are predicting something being asked "but you predicted such-and-such 5 times in the past and it never happened, why should we listen to you now?" Or even "what percentage of your past predictions were accurate and can you document that?"

The shows make all their money by currying favor with everyone (sponsors and guests), going after someone they helped give exposure and therefore credibility makes them look bad too. They'll just ignore people who've been wrong too many times, not expose them and themselves in the process.

And it gets the audiences attention when some suit says it's the end of the world or we're in for a major uptick, not so much for anyone saying business as usual - most people don't care what Bogle has said all his life. And we love to be told why this time is different though the market outcome itself is the same time after time. So those who regularly read or watch CNBC and the like get what they seem to want. [I did for a few years long ago before I caught on, it's the same stories year after year with new faces]

However the financial sector is good about trotting out people to calm fears when there really is a big correction.

 

[Out of Steam]

A predilection for doom and gloom also seems to increase with age. Especially in males.

There's an entire genre of internet content and books to cater to their needs for "doomer porn". I won't promote any of them by linking.

 

[Rianne]

As much as I like Mark Cuban, I think he's cute, he said the market would crash when Trump is elected. He said he's selling his stock if this happens. Really? He's not saying much these days.

 

[Running_Man]

This thread contains much criticism of what Jim Rogers said but no discussion. The major points are:

1) Declines and problems are not unusual in the US historically have come every 4-8 years

2) The next decline will be the worst in our lifetimes, so that to me would signify a call for a decline worse than the 1973-1974 economy.

3) There is little one can do to protect against a decline but investors should be careful and only invest in what the investor themselves know about - in other words do not invest based on another’s advice only based on your own intellect.

4) He owns gold but is neither buying or selling at the present time but expects big up and down moves in gold and if gold were to drop $1,000 an ounce he will load up on gold.

5) He is primarily invested in agriculture and US dollars - (short term treasuries), Rogers is not advocating those as investments of choice.

I think he has his opinion that the market is set to have a major decline, and from listening to him before he is of the opinion because central banks have not allowed natural corrections to run their course. This is basically in opposition to those who believe no matter how bad economy gets the FED will protect investors. Other than that his advice is to learn about investments and invest in what you know, I think that is actually solid advice.

I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline, as they are not that unusual in the world of investments. If one is panicked, or believe he is somehow making a living by being a scare-monger then I think that is a mischaracterization of Jim Rogers and missing his major points. Discussion of finance topics should one area in the world to withstand a discussion of ideas without leading to an idea that somehow the financial investing science has been “settled"

 

[Midpack]

I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline, as they are not that unusual in the world of investments.

Good advice, but '70-80% decline is not that unusual' might be overstated - only once in US history so far. Despite his major points, Rogers has been wrong since 2010 (see post #5). If you predict doom every year, you have to be right eventually.

 

[pb4uski]

.... The major points are:

..... 2) The next decline will be the worst in our lifetimes, so that to me would signify a call for a decline worse than the 1973-1974 economy.

..... I think any investor should give thought to how they would endure a 70-80 percent decline, as they are not that unusual in the world of investments....

Where is your proof for the statement that the next decline will be the worst of our lifetimes? While some people may think that will happen it is probably more likely that it will not be the "worst" of our lifetimes.

I have no idea what will happen but it doesn't really matter much.... I'll just keep with my 60/35/5 AA, rebalance opportunistically and hope for the best.

WADR, to say that a 70-80% decline is "not that unusual in the world of investments" is crazy talk. There has only been one decline anywhere near that severe... in 1929... and there are many protections put in place after that crash. Besides, if one has a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, the decline would be mitigated by the stability of bonds.

 

[Spock]

Apparently mine is a minority opinion around here, but I'm amazed it hasn't crashed already. Interest rates were dropped to near zero (in some countries below zero) to combat the financial crisis 10 YEARS AGO and STILL haven't risen (suggesting we're still in a crisis??).
Sure the stock markets bounced nicely after the '07-09 crash... but at the same time we have central banks/governments are now among the largest market owners (printing the money to buy assets):
"Back in April, Bank of America noted that central banks had purchased $1 trillion in assets this year alone. Now, that includes bonds more than it does stocks; but globally it tells us that quantitative easing continues at a massive scale,"

it all looks like a casino and "the house always wins".