KMI - On the road to disaster?

Isn't today an options expiration Friday? That usually generates high volatility.
 
aja8888 said:
I've done the same with XOM since the drop to $72 last Fall. If it goes further down, I'm buying again.

I have a very small position in KMI and was thinking about swapping it for the preferred issue that is around $40. Any thoughts on that strategy?
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With the assumption the dividend will not be suspended KMI-A or KMIPA depending on what platform you look it up on has a minimum present value of $30.46 today, so your potential loss her is 7 points or 18.6 percent. If the price of KMI gets to 20 at the end of the conversion period - 3 years the total return would be 30 percent or a 9 percent annual gain, this is a very reasonable conservative expectation for KMI and a way to play the stock without much risk as you get almost twice as much upside as downside risk. This is why I purchased the preferred @32, anything in that area is a very good value unless upon quarterly earnings the possibility of dividend suspension becomes evident.
 
kmi just seems to have no bottom . 12.55 today
 
exxon and kmi are the only ones I trade in so I watch those 2 .
 
COP now is at 33.77 and is down 28 percent on the year, AMLP down 9% on the day with an 8 handle oil stocks getting a wash out today
 
mlpl is getting slaughtered . down almost 29% today
 
Running_Man said:
KMI/PA should trade between 41 and 45 and then you earn dividend of 12% on top of that. Looks like the opportunity to avoid any losses with purchase in low 30's on preferred is now gone.
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KMI.PA has dropped back down again, to a low of $34.68 today. Maybe it will still go lower, but I felt OK about going in to pick up a few hundred shares at $35 midday.
 
hesperus said:
KMI.PA has dropped back down again, to a low of $34.68 today. Maybe it will still go lower, but I felt OK about going in to pick up a few hundred shares at $35 midday.
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With earning announcement yesterday, investors are feeling better about Kinder Morgan and I think you made a profitable purchase for yourself yesterday, well done!
 
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Two trades today

Bought 1000 KMI for 13.98. Sold for 14.47 today ..quick flip

Bought 20 March call 15 strike KMI 0.59 and sold today for 1.10..quick flip

Holding 400 X AMLP @ 9.97 Let's see... A couple other MLP ETFs crashed and this one may benefit from that weakness.
 
Still waiting for KMI to fall back down. That Warren Buffett stepped in and ruined everything! Maybe I will get a dip during the summer doldrums.
 
Today I purchased KMI, for the following reasons:

1) Richard Kinder has a horrible reputation among investors with most claiming they will never be burned by him again after believing his claims of dividend growth via borrowings.

2) The dividend is announced to go up 60% in January to $0.80 per share. When announced in October KMI could not have been sure a tax bill would be announced but the tax bill will more than fully pay for this dividend increase.

3) Budget is based on $53 West Texas Crude, with WTI now at $59.68 KMI should have upside on the income side and with the lower tax rates KMI gets to keep more. The new tax law makes this company much more valuable and due to #1 above it is not presently being recognized.

4) Cold winter weather should greatly increase natural gas volumes and increase KMI tolling services quite positively.

I am optimistic in a return to $25-$30 a share in price and can see where the dividend to be near $1.25 by 2020 as KMI is giving in forward projections, which is 6.9% on today's stock price.
 
I also bought KMI for the first time, about three weeks ago.
 
Old thread resurrected... I got burned with the KMP - KMI conversion a while back, both with the unexpected tax hit and reduced dividend. Left a sour taste. My last post above was before I decided to pull out my position completely later in 2016.
 
RM, Speaking of pipelines, I am surprised you havent jumped on NSS and ride the wave as long as its outstanding... Trading right around par and went exd yesterday. Past call now...Goes adjustable float next income payment in April which will jump to around 8.4%. They got a hard maturing debt issue that needs to be addressed in April, so I suspecting this subordinated debt will have some life in the legs...If Im wrong,I already made money, and will make more as no call notice has been issued. Its a bit frisky with debt and needs to get this acquisition rocking but I am usually a nervous Nellie, but Im in pretty solid on this one.
 
KMI - yes, count me among those burned. :( Never again.
 
I bought KMR 10 or 12 years ago and loved it until the conversion. Rode it down and still own it. Too much in capital gains to sell. I guess I'll hang on and hope it recovers.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
 
Theoretically KMI will raise the dividend 60% this year to .80 and then another 25% in 2019 ($1) and 2020 ($1.25). If they actually do that and keep the div around 50% of DCF, then the stock price will theoretically go up significantly.

Assume a $1.25 div... if share price went up to $30 you'd still have a 4.17% div yield. Based on this I would guesstimate that $30 per share in 2020 is not unreasonable if KMI is compared to other C-corps like a utility for example.

They may also theoretically buy back around 5% of shares with the $2 billion for stock buybacks.

I was not in KMI for the last 75% div cut (the kindering) so maybe I am stupid to believe anything they say. lol
 
DCF is a totally misleading and useless term. It is the most useless of all statistics and will lead anyone to a wrong conclusion. Actual dollars of revenue, earnings after expenses, net debt position changes and capital investment are the only thing that matters. You will save yourself a lot of money if you throw any DCF calculations away
 
Running_Man said:
Today I purchased KMI, for the following reasons:

1) Richard Kinder has a horrible reputation among investors with most claiming they will never be burned by him again after believing his claims of dividend growth via borrowings.

2) The dividend is announced to go up 60% in January to $0.80 per share. When announced in October KMI could not have been sure a tax bill would be announced but the tax bill will more than fully pay for this dividend increase.

3) Budget is based on $53 West Texas Crude, with WTI now at $59.68 KMI should have upside on the income side and with the lower tax rates KMI gets to keep more. The new tax law makes this company much more valuable and due to #1 above it is not presently being recognized.

4) Cold winter weather should greatly increase natural gas volumes and increase KMI tolling services quite positively.

I am optimistic in a return to $25-$30 a share in price and can see where the dividend to be near $1.25 by 2020 as KMI is giving in forward projections, which is 6.9% on today's stock price.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the info. Your argument was convincing so I bought some at 18.25 about the time of your post. Bought some more today when my ridiculously low limit order for 15.25 filled. Bargain time?
 
Free To Canoe said:
Thanks for the info. Your argument was convincing so I bought some at 18.25 about the time of your post. Bought some more today when my ridiculously low limit order for 15.25 filled. Bargain time?
Click to expand...



I surely hope so. All these mlps seem severely snakebit.

Ha
 
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