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Old 08-06-2018, 08:20 AM   #21
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There was another thread about a month ago where I went (Hypothetically)short Bitcoin at about $6200. I think it rallied shortly after to about $8500 before heading back down to $7,000 or so.
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Old 08-06-2018, 09:28 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Elbata View Post
Wasn't it Krugman, upon Trump winning the election, say something like we'll never see stock valuations go any higher, or something to that effect?
Yep: Nov 9, 2016 - "The economic fallout of a Donald Trump presidency will probably be severe and widespread enough to plunge the world into recession."

Another gem: "By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's." 1998

The former Enron adviser has been so spectacularly wrong so often that I can't imagine why anyone would waste their time reading his stuff.
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Old 08-06-2018, 10:40 AM   #23
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Now that almost half the respondents have identified their political leanings by vilifying Krugman without addressing the substance of the article can't we just bring in Porky and end this thread?
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Old 08-06-2018, 10:43 AM   #24
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Why don't we try just staying on topic, which is the virtues of bitcoin, as expressed by Mr. Krugman.
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Old 08-06-2018, 11:01 AM   #25
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I also don’t know who he is.
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Old 08-06-2018, 02:55 PM   #26
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while many dislike zerohedge, this was an interesting rebuttal of Krugman's opinion
(and the Krugman meme pics are funny).
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...urrency-solves
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Old 08-06-2018, 03:19 PM   #27
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Why don't we try just staying on topic, which is the virtues of bitcoin, as expressed by Mr. Krugman.

OK, so staying on topic....I read the article, and was struck by this tidbit:

Quote:
If you like, fiat currencies have underlying value because men with guns say they do. And this means that their value isn’t a bubble that can collapse if people lose faith.
A fiat currency only has value because of trust. Venezuela is a perfect example of when trust in the buying power of the currency goes away. The "men with the guns" can say it has value, but that is meaningless if the people lose faith.

Crypto currencies calling card is in great extent found through decentralization and getting away from single party (single country) control of captial, i.e. moving from the men with the guns saying so. Whether it will be successful at that remains to be seen (I am somewhat skeptical even though I have a modest amount of Bitcoin & Bitcoin Cash).
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Old 08-06-2018, 03:36 PM   #28
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Bitcoin and other cryptos have a long way to go IMHO before they are usable by the average man in the street. The lack of oversight is touted as a plus by many but its the wild west out there. I thought this WSJ article yesterday was informative:
https://www.wsj.com/graphics/cryptoc...d=hp_lead_pos5
Quote:
Dozens of trading groups are manipulating the price of cryptocurrencies on some of the largest online exchanges, generating at least $825 million in trading activity over the past six months—and hundreds of millions in losses for those caught on the wrong side, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.
I know not all can read this but if you can its informative. It describes the pump-and-dump operations coordinated by groups using telegraph.

Until this is corrected some how (i.e. regulated) it's hard for me to see how cryptos can become mainstream and hold their value
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Old 08-06-2018, 03:59 PM   #29
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Dang, I was going to buy some bitcoin! But, those that have it won't sell me any. To quote one seller I contacted, "The USD is obsolete and soon to be worthless. Why would I want your stinky paper fiat money?". Who knew? Man, missed another sure thing.

Do you think the people on TV that sell gold will take my USD? On second thought, I doubt it. They also say my stinky paper fiat money will soon be worthless.
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Old 08-06-2018, 04:40 PM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock View Post
while many dislike zerohedge, this was an interesting rebuttal of Krugman's opinion
(and the Krugman meme pics are funny).
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...urrency-solves
Nice piece, thanks for posting!
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Old 08-06-2018, 07:41 PM   #31
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Ask Venezuela what they think of their fiat currency. Bitcoin for them is remarkably stable.

It's a complex domain, and we're slowly entering the disappointment phase. Once regulation kicks in in addition we'll see what the staying power is.

My current guess is that we'll end up with bits and pieces of the technology, and maybe one or two coin(types), everything else will disappear in a puff of logic.

Cryptokitties for example, the biggest application for ETH and a sort of Pokemon collectible card game, has collapsed in recent months. Bitcoin itself is sort of holding up, to my own surprise.
In preparing for a Venezuela scenario, I'd rather gold, silver, and real estate than crypto.

I can't pay my health insurance, real estate taxes, or grocery shop with bit coin. Gold is easy to sell in a medium sized city for a relativly low spread.

I know of one person who made a legal transaction with Bitcoin... Not that I know everyone
One person on here who made a quasilegal Bitcoin purchase of prescription drugs in the US from a European vendor.
One person that bought illegal drugs with Bitcoin....
Not a great endorsement.
If you think the me with the guns are not going to shut down cryptos if the dollar tanks and that's the common safe harbour people flee to than I believe we disagree.
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Old 08-06-2018, 08:55 PM   #32
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In preparing for a Venezuela scenario, I'd rather gold, silver, and real estate than crypto.

I can't pay my health insurance, real estate taxes, or grocery shop with bit coin. Gold is easy to sell in a medium sized city for a relativly low spread.

I know of one person who made a legal transaction with Bitcoin... Not that I know everyone
One person on here who made a quasilegal Bitcoin purchase of prescription drugs in the US from a European vendor.
One person that bought illegal drugs with Bitcoin....
Not a great endorsement.
If you think the me with the guns are not going to shut down cryptos if the dollar tanks and that's the common safe harbour people flee to than I believe we disagree.



One problem with crypto is that if we get as bad as the survivorlists say then there will not be any place that will be able to read your crypto.... heck, the computer that holds it will probably be destroyed...


I still shake my head at all the people that keep talking this up...
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Old 08-07-2018, 05:20 AM   #33
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One problem with crypto is that if we get as bad as the survivorlists say then there will not be any place that will be able to read your crypto.... heck, the computer that holds it will probably be destroyed...


I still shake my head at all the people that keep talking this up...
Seems a pretty good investment if you're the one starting up a new crypto-currency that you then manage to hype like a penny stock.
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Old 08-07-2018, 05:33 AM   #34
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In preparing for a Venezuela scenario, I'd rather gold, silver, and real estate than crypto.

I can't pay my health insurance, real estate taxes, or grocery shop with bit coin. Gold is easy to sell in a medium sized city for a relativly low spread.
It's harder to get robbed (gold, silver) with crypto, and the government can claim your houses and/or tax its value away.

Not saying it is the be-all end-all, I'd go precious metals or foreign currency too for day to day transactions and living. Hope the nightmare ends for them soon.
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Old 08-07-2018, 06:43 AM   #35
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In preparing for a Venezuela scenario, I'd rather gold, silver, and real estate than crypto.
Wouldn’t help much. No form of currency - crypto, fiat or hard asset, is of value in a lawless state where fundamental property rights do not exist.

Based on reports from friends and family, the most desirable currency now in Venezuela is food.
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:22 AM   #36
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I find some of the post here kinda ironic. Any asset class that isn't traditional is essentially laughed at. I find it ironic in that people who are poor or struggling to have enough to retire should/need stay with traditional, proven techniques. But once you have enough, it gives you the freedom to further diversify.

Now that I know I have enough, I have:
1. Bought some precious metals (Gold, Silver). Some in ETF form, some in physical form.
2. Bought land, with enough trees to keep the house heated if needed.
3. Made sure I have a good food supply, of which some is canned and some is in long term (Mylar sealed) containers. (BTW, although I am not LDS, the LDS Home Storage Centers are an excellent source for some of the basics).
4. A good supply of Ammo.

Did I do these things because I think the world is going to end tomorrow or because the United States will be in chaos next week? No, but I did do these things as a small hedge against that low probability event. (It is a different story as to whether I would want to be around if it happened...)

I put Bitcoin in this category. I bought a small amount a few years ago ($100) and promptly forgot about it, it is now worth around $3500, enough to keep me interested.
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Old 08-07-2018, 07:23 AM   #37
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In Nov 2016 this guy Krugman said the stock market would crash and never recover. Virtually at that moment the S&P 500 began a year long 20% + climb. Why trust him? Maybe he is right this time, or maybe not, but I would not waste my time listening to him ever again.
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Old 08-07-2018, 08:20 AM   #38
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I find some of the post here kinda ironic. Any asset class that isn't traditional is essentially laughed at. I find it ironic in that people who are poor or struggling to have enough to retire should/need stay with traditional, proven techniques. But once you have enough, it gives you the freedom to further diversify.

Now that I know I have enough, I have:
1. Bought some precious metals (Gold, Silver). Some in ETF form, some in physical form.
2. Bought land, with enough trees to keep the house heated if needed.
3. Made sure I have a good food supply, of which some is canned and some is in long term (Mylar sealed) containers. (BTW, although I am not LDS, the LDS Home Storage Centers are an excellent source for some of the basics).
4. A good supply of Ammo.

Did I do these things because I think the world is going to end tomorrow or because the United States will be in chaos next week? No, but I did do these things as a small hedge against that low probability event. (It is a different story as to whether I would want to be around if it happened...)

I put Bitcoin in this category. I bought a small amount a few years ago ($100) and promptly forgot about it, it is now worth around $3500, enough to keep me interested.



But you just made the point that bitcoin is NOT an investment... you risked a whole $100 on it... I doubt that would move the needle any vs your whole assets...


So let's compare... how much did you invest in precious metals, land, food and ammo... you can use pcts if you want...


BTW, I do not laugh at metals or land... those are strong known investments that some just choose not to buy... I am not into long term food options since at some time you will either have to eat it or throw it away... and I do not think it tastes good... but you can get some use out of it... with crypto there is no real utility to it...
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Old 08-07-2018, 08:49 AM   #39
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With bitcoin we invested what we were prepared to lose to see how it worked out and got lucky and made money. I don’t think anyone is arguing that it should be your main investment strategy or plan.
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Old 08-07-2018, 10:06 AM   #40
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I think Ben Graham would say bitcoin is speculative and not an investment. Here is his explanation of the difference between the two.

“An investment operation is one which, on thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and a satisfactory return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.”

Cryptocurrencies, unlike most stocks and bonds, do not have a "return". The purchaser is speculating the price will be higher in the future. Graham goes on to propose situations where "intelligent speculation" might be warranted.

"Intelligent speculation presupposes at least that the mathematical possibilities are not against the speculation, basing the measurement of these odds on experience and the careful weighing of relevant facts."

IMHO, cryptocurrencies don't meet the definition of an investment or an intelligent speculation. I would put them clearly in the gambling category.
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