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Old 07-20-2015, 07:06 PM   #441
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The railroads /transports look interesting with oil prices continuing to stay down.

Maybe get into a transport or railroad ETF.
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Old 07-21-2015, 12:22 PM   #442
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The railroads /transports look interesting with oil prices continuing to stay down.

Maybe get into a transport or railroad ETF.
They carry coal also, so keep that in mind!
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Old 07-21-2015, 01:35 PM   #443
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I think the volume of crude oil and coal transported by rail will decrease in coming years. That market will be offset by intermodal traffic.
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Old 07-21-2015, 05:30 PM   #444
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I don't see any major news on the schedule until the FOMC meeting in mid-September. There is a FOMC meeting next week, but it should be a non-event.

So it looks to me like a time to button up and go on another vacation as far as the portfolio and market timing is concerned.

Let's see:
Greeks check.
China check.
Iran check.
Iraq check.
Buffoons jockeying in Washington, DC. . check.

Is anyone aware of some possible earth-shattering news to be expected in the next 8 weeks?
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Old 07-21-2015, 09:48 PM   #445
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Is anyone aware of some possible earth-shattering news to be expected in the next 8 weeks?
Houston Astros win their division? (that would be a shocker)!
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Old 07-22-2015, 08:29 PM   #446
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Nothing earth shattering. Lots of politics and a few with terrible hair dos who just need to shut there yappers. I see a bit of politico fund-raising but nothing in terms of earth shattering. I put a premarket Limit in for AAPL for what I had sold it for a while back. I think AAPL still has some room to run. I use APPL as my "emergency fund" heh prob not the best idea I get it, but hey it forces me to really improvise before selling an asset. not too many emergencies these days.
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Old 07-27-2015, 10:56 PM   #447
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I think the volume of crude oil and coal transported by rail will decrease in coming years. That market will be offset by intermodal traffic.
I had been thinking of railroads, but then as I was reading on the brutal year coal mining companies have had, it said how coal accounted for 20% of rail cargo.

And that coal was an extra profitable cargo for rails (maybe because it is weather proof, theft proof etc) so losing this 20% is probably worse than losing same % for some other cargo.

Plus with diesel so cheap, and going to be cheaper in couple of months, it means truckers can be more competitive to the trains

It made me hold off on the trains.
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Old 08-14-2015, 11:06 AM   #448
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Last week, before heading up to the high-country home, I sold off enough equities to lower my stock AA from 70% down to 60%. I still have to decide what to do with this new 10% in cash.

I am now back in town, and with Internet access, just now start to look at the effect of China's yuan devaluation.
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Old 08-20-2015, 10:43 PM   #449
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With the market dropping like it does today, of course I wish I had sold off even more.

Still, as the S&P drops -2.11% today, my individual stocks drop -1.51%, and my MFs -1.87%. If everyday is like this, I guess I have no right to complain.
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Old 08-21-2015, 07:02 AM   #450
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Now appears to be the best time since December 2014 to put new money into the market. SP500 is now negative for the year.Still paying a 2 percent dividend yield.

Adding to VTI. Total U.S. Market. Capture the industries that have been beaten up - market reflects weak financials / banks and commodities and oil.

VXUS continues to struggle too and may be worth adding to that as well given stimulus money now flowing. It yields about 2.8 percent and is very well diversified in equities across many countries

I'm an equities buyer here. Cash position down from 15 percent to now 8 percent. May do more today ...

Now through thanksgiving will be interesting - Could be a setup for a old fashioned pre election strong rally ..
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Old 08-21-2015, 08:44 AM   #451
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I'm quite surprised that my AA is so close to target given that I rebalanced just before year end 2014. Equities are 59.7% vs 60% target. Fixed income is 35.2% vs 34% target. Cash is 5.1% vs 6% target.

Cash is lower due to living expense withdrawals YTD so at this time of year it would be expected to be below target and equities and bonds would be expected to be above target. However, even adjusting for the drift expected from YTD living expense withdrawals balances are quite close to target. If I adjust for withdrawals equities are 59.7% vs 60.6% target, fixed income is 34.8% vs 34.3% target and cash is 5.1% vs 5.0% target.

Some amounts may not add due to rounding.
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Old 08-21-2015, 08:45 AM   #452
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Now appears to be the best time since December 2014 to put new money into the market. SP500 is now negative for the year...
Should I not wait for the best time since Oct 2014? That's a better bargain.
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Old 08-21-2015, 09:47 AM   #453
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It is getting close to time to wade in and buy a bit. I don't have as much cash set aside as NW but we are selling our house this year and it is paid off, so essentially I do have a large portion coming available soon.

I have about 150k now that is not in the market and would be a buyer when Netflix is $90 (that would signal that the current euphoria with next decade PE is over). I wouldn't buy Netflix at that point but I would buy the cheap stuff that got mixed in with the decline, like Disney, Merck, Gilead, Exxon, Apple.
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Old 08-21-2015, 09:56 AM   #454
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In my opinion, the Fed has been propping up this market for years, with QE1, QE2, etc.. I don't think it is a coincidence that the S&P 500 has been basically flat since the last QE ended in October 2014. I see very little upside potential for this market in the near-term, and I think we have a lot further to fall. The huge drop in commodity prices (especially oil) and the problems China is having only add to the current volatile situation, IMO. If I had some spare cash that I wanted to put into the market, I would wait a while and see how this plays out before jumping in. I may be all wrong, but it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months or more.

I'm going to watch this one from the sidelines, for now anyway.
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Old 08-21-2015, 10:02 AM   #455
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Another play might be to start selling SPY cash secured puts at sub $200 levels. At least it would give you some spending money and establish a buy-in point for the future crash.

$190 Jan 2016 puts are getting $6 or more.

$6,000 payment for selling 10 of those which is a greater than 6% annualized return on your investment.

Buying in at $190 wouldn't be a horrible thing either.
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Old 08-21-2015, 10:21 AM   #456
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I am currently at 57% stock, 6% bond. That leaves 37% cash, and rising! The Dow just drops 300 points as I wrote. Fun time!

I had cleared out much of the more volatile stocks, such as EM, material, and energy stocks. It may be a while until a good time to get them again. It's China that drives the demand for much of the natural resources, and they spent all their money on ghost cities already. Countries that export raw material like Australia, Canada, Brazil have been feeling the impact for some time now.
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Old 08-21-2015, 10:29 AM   #457
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Just a bump in the road to me, not a meltdown that one might expect reading the headlines. As of yesterday I'm down ~4% in total since the 12 month high of my portfolio back in mid-May after adding back monthly withdrawals for living expenses.
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Old 08-21-2015, 10:40 AM   #458
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Just a bump in the road to me, not a meltdown that one might expect reading the headlines. As of yesterday I'm down ~4% in total since the 12 month high of my portfolio back in mid-May after adding back monthly withdrawals for living expenses.
4% though is a brand new Tesla with the crazy mode thing option.
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Old 08-21-2015, 10:52 AM   #459
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Just a bump in the road to me, not a meltdown that one might expect reading the headlines. As of yesterday I'm down ~4% in total since the 12 month high of my portfolio back in mid-May after adding back monthly withdrawals for living expenses.

This is what everyone should be thinking. The market has been so calm for so long its easy to get fidgety when it suddenly drops a few percent. Of course that is easy for me to say only having about 25% of my money in VTSAX and the rest in utility preferreds. They are doing now what they always pretty much do....nothing.


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Old 08-21-2015, 10:54 AM   #460
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Busy morning. I like to use these periods to buy in to continue to get closer to my asset allocation goals. Financial & tech sectors looking beaten up. Putting cash to work, but with a suspicious eye that this can go lower. We've been breaking through some long standing resistance thresholds now.

After this I'm going for a hike in the mountains
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