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Old 08-25-2015, 04:27 PM   #521
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NW, I have to man up an admit I caved...
So, it was you! You, you, who sold out to the devil.



Just kidding.

A guy's got to do what he's comfortable with. Perhaps tomorrow, I will regret not joining you.

Nah! I lost 50% in the tech rout of 2000-2003. In 2008-2009, I lost 37%. So far, there's nothing in the fundamentals to indicate a repeat of the previous two market sell-offs. But if there is, well, been there, done that.

If "this time is different", I still have my class C for housing of last resort. Me worry?
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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter
Old 08-25-2015, 04:32 PM   #522
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Fermion, I 100% agree with you a normal investor shouldn't. But I don't use my investments to live on. I trust my pension fund manager to professionally run my retirement as I know I couldn't handle it! I only invest in transmission and distribution utilities. No power... They are all "fenced in" from parent company with guaranteed ROE. In fact the ones I have most of my money in are getting a bonus ROE from the Feds for improving infrastructure. The grid will always need to be protected and they are already circling the wagons concerning "off the griders". They don't care who they get the power from whether it be nuke, wind, coal, or solar as they are "pass through" entities. And as 1% of the capital structure wedged in between bonds and stocks there is a lot of common divis that have to dry up before they can come after me.
That being said I definitely understand where you are coming from!


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Old 08-25-2015, 04:37 PM   #523
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
So, it was you! You, you, who sold out to the devil.



Just kidding.

A guy's got to do what he's comfortable with. Perhaps tomorrow, I will regret not joining you.

Nah! I lost 50% in the tech rout of 2000-2003. In 2008-2009, I lost 37%. So far, there's nothing in the fundamentals to indicate a repeat of the previous two market sell-offs. But if there is, well, been there, done that.

If "this time is different", I still have my class C for housing of last resort. Me worry?

You in the long run, NW are the smart one. I just cant help it. I can go drop $1k on a bet in Vegas and lose it and not bat an eye as it comes out of my gambling fund. But losing $1k in the stock market? It really
pi$$es me off!!! I cant help it....

But yet....After I get off the Vanguard suspension list in October, I will dutifully contribute my $500 a month again.

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Old 08-25-2015, 06:01 PM   #524
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I am completely the reverse. The few times I went to Vegas, it was to look around and not to gamble. I believe the most I ever dropped in a slot machine was $10 one such visit, and I just wanted to lose all those quarters quickly for the game to be over. If I lost as much as $100, I would be pissed, but I didn't lose because I don't gamble. Note they used real quarters then, not playing by electronic cards.

On the other hand, the market has been doing me well even though I am not a good market timer. Looking at my stash now, even with a $200K hair cut and what I have spent, I can see that there's no way I could have saved up that much money (I kept no records of my savings through my work life), so much of it must have come from the market.

Maybe one of these days, it "will be different this time", and my life will be irreversibly changed (cue the class C motorhome ). But for now, I just try to do what has worked, that is to buy low, and sell high.
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:26 PM   #525
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I am completely the reverse. The few times I went to Vegas, it was to look around and not to gamble. I believe the most I ever dropped in a slot machine was $10 one such visit, and I just wanted to lose all those quarters quickly for the game to be over. If I lost as much as $100, I would be pissed, but I didn't lose because I don't gamble. Note they used real quarters then, not playing by electronic cards.

On the other hand, the market has been doing me well even though I am not a good market timer. Looking at my stash now, even with a $200K hair cut and what I have spent, I can see that there's no way I could have saved up that much money (I kept no records of my savings through my work life), so much of it must have come from the market.

Maybe one of these days, it "will be different this time", and my life will be irreversibly changed (cue the class C motorhome ). But for now, I just try to do what has worked, that is to buy low, and sell high.

I agree with you, but loss aversion has really hit me hard in retirement. Having a nice pension probably doesn't help that attitude either I imagine. Besides Im stuck with the fund anyways. I am not losing my 2k tax credit over capital gains and paying those taxes on top of the loss of the tax credit.
As far as the gambling goes, NW....It is only sports betting I have been to Vegas 50 times and still haven't put a penny in a slot. I have been betting way longer than I have been investing. I had to talk the principal out of a spanking when the teacher busted my gambling ring. She noticed the line in front of my desk exchanging quarters and dollars. I was the bookie!


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Old 08-25-2015, 08:36 PM   #526
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The only game I will play in Vegas is tournament poker. The casino takes a portion of the entry fee but other than that, you are playing against other people with no house advantage. I actually have come in first place in one tournament and several times been at the final table. Small games though, no more than about $30 to $60 buy in.
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:41 PM   #527
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The only game I will play in Vegas is tournament poker. The casino takes a portion of the entry fee but other than that, you are playing against other people with no house advantage. I actually have come in first place in one tournament and several times been at the final table. Small games though, no more than about $30 to $60 buy in.

I admire that Fermion. But I cant play poker for 3 reasons... 1) It requires thinking 2) Beer drinking doesn't improve likelihood of winning 3) and cussing loud when things go wrong probably isn't as accepted there as it is in the Sports Book. In fact it appears very quiet in those poker rooms when I walk by.


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Old 08-25-2015, 08:48 PM   #528
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The poker room is awesome as it is usually the only place they don't allow smoking. The only sports betting I do is at the horse track, because my wife likes to watch the horses run. She always bets on the low odds winner, winning 50 cents on a 2 dollar bet, while I always go for the trifecta (go big or go home is my motto). She does better. We haven't been in about 8 years though.
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:50 PM   #529
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I have been betting way longer than I have been investing. I had to talk the principal out of a spanking when the teacher busted my gambling ring...
By giving him part of the vig?
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Old 08-25-2015, 09:25 PM   #530
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By giving him part of the vig?

I was only a fifth grader so I did not even know that part yet. But the spreads killed them I remember. I remember telling the principal how could this be illegal when I am getting the point spreads from the newspaper. He gave me a break. If I remember correctly I didn't even know it was illegal to even bet then, because Jimmy the Greek was always in tv sundays picking the spreads. That is where I am sure I got the idea from.


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Old 08-25-2015, 10:47 PM   #531
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I think I may rebalance tomorrow... sell bonds and buy stocks.... so I hope it is another down day. Opportunistic rebalancing is about the extent of my market timing.
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Old 08-25-2015, 11:16 PM   #532
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The Shanghai index just flat lined, so not sure what is up with that. Maybe the government cut the feed (if you can't see or hear the tree fall, did it really happen?)
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Old 08-26-2015, 12:03 AM   #533
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It is frozen but up from previous close, right? Maybe the Chinese gummint says "Hey this is good enough. All trades have to be at this price from now on."
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Old 08-26-2015, 03:18 PM   #534
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Sorry for being late with the following orders, but they were executed in the last hour except for one which was executed yesterday.

This is just pure luck: My wife's 401(k) plan started offering a new fund this week, so she moved her entire 401(k) from a money market fund to an S&P500 index fund. The order said it would take 3 days to go through, but it went through yesterday at the market close. Her 401(k) must be up 4% today.

I found out this afternoon that her 401(k) was now 100% S&P500, so that and all the other buys in the past few days made our portfolio way way overweighted to equities, so I started selling since market was going up.

I also noticed that Vanguard Total US Bond Index fund in the form of the ETF BND was down about 0.5% today and down about 0.85% since Monday when I sold shares of it. Such staid bond funds should not move that much in a few days, so that meant buying opportunity for me.

Trades:
Sold IVV (S&P500) and bought BND (total US bond).

Exchanged from VTSAX (total US stock market) to VBTLX (total US bond)

Exchanged from VLCAX (large-cap index) in a taxable account to money market. These were lots that had small losses, so this is a tax-loss harvesting move. I have to decide what to do with the cash. Maybe pay vacation bills?

Sold some of the EWX I had bought this past week and bought BND.

We are still overweight in equities with these trades since on Friday and Monday I had moved almost 15% of the portfolio from fixed income to equities.

I'd like to think I've made some money by all this action this week over doing nothing, but I am sure my overall portfolio is down from last Thursday. I just hope it is not down as much as it would be without these trades.
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:46 AM   #535
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I still have a few hundred thousand dollars in equities to sell, so I have submitted some limit orders this morning. I'm selling VTI that I bought in the past week. With the proceeds, I will buy BND. So still unwinding the purchases made on Monday.

Time to go walk the dog. After I come back, I will survey the scene and probably submit more orders.
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:58 AM   #536
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My weekly SPY 188.5/184.5 put spread has just about reached full value of $1.50 with SPY at 196.90 Its about as safely above the 188.50 strike with expiry tomorrow as you can get so I will do nothing and let everything expire worthless and keep my premium. As it turns out I would've made more money buy not spreading and just sticking with the naked 188.5's but thats results oriented thinking The move was the correct one on a risk / reward basis.

I don't post my day trading results because I do too many of them but this one was interesting. I put in an order to buy WSM at 76.25. I got half the order filled and the stock immediately popped. I sold it 15 secs later at 77.10 for a 1.1% profit. Too bad the whole order didnt get filled
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:48 AM   #537
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Back from dog walking and I was pleasantly surprised to see that my limit order had gone through. So prices have exceeded the closing prices of last Friday when I started buying.

Now that others are not fearful, there is no reason for me to be greedy, so I am submitting more orders to sell VTI and as I type, VTI is going for a nice little uptick.
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Old 08-27-2015, 12:53 PM   #538
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I just opened a Sep/Oct 105 put calendar trade on Apple for $1.39. I'm short the Sept 105 puts and long the Oct 105 puts. I'm looking to profit on another short term dip.
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:21 PM   #539
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Now that others are not fearful, there is no reason for me to be greedy...
Are you saying the market timers on this forum have been "Wheee'ing" too much? If so, not from this guy. I did not buy much, and what I bought have not made much money. No Wheee'ing here.
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:58 PM   #540
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Are you saying the market timers on this forum have been "Wheee'ing" too much? If so, not from this guy. I did not buy much, and what I bought have not made much money. No Wheee'ing here.

Dont feel bad that you are apparently the only one who doesn't score big riches in a falling market on this forum.... As you know, NW, I sold 10k out of my mutual fund at the absolute bottom on Tuesday. The only fool here, and I will stand up and own it! But I am "rich" up $140 in 2 days on my NGHCZ trade from Monday.


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