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Old 08-27-2015, 03:11 PM   #541
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And a great day to unwind things. A little head-fake in the afternoon, but strong through the close.

I'm glad I bought BND early in the day before someone mouthed off about interest rates and made it go up.

I am now back to Asset Allocation nirvana, so unless something drastic happens … I go back to waiting for the September FOMC meeting.

Portfolio is UP from close of last week, so not a a bad week at all. Not at all.
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:57 PM   #542
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Dont feel bad that you are apparently the only one who doesn't score big riches in a falling market on this forum.... As you know, NW, I sold 10k out of my mutual fund at the absolute bottom on Tuesday. The only fool here, and I will stand up and own it! But I am "rich" up $140 in 2 days on my NGHCZ trade from Monday.


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I think we all lost in the falling market but a few had some cash to deploy at the right time. NW would have been in that crowd but he was playing golf, or fishing, or polishing his Class C or something. I made $7400 so far cash since Monday in trading account but I think our 401K + IRA is down about $35,000 still.
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Old 08-27-2015, 05:09 PM   #543
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I went up to my high-country place to escape the heat. ATT had data roaming agreement up there with the local carrier a few months ago, but suddenly there's only voice and no data anymore. So, I missed out on all the fun.

I will be going up again soon. Wonder how much money I will miss out once more.
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Old 08-27-2015, 06:08 PM   #544
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I went up to my high-country place to escape the heat. ATT had data roaming agreement up there with the local carrier a few months ago, but suddenly there's only voice and no data anymore. So, I missed out on all the fun.

I will be going up again soon. Wonder how much money I will miss out once more.

Don't worry - charts suggest we will retest the lows around 182 on SPY, so you'll have another shot at buying ...


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Old 08-27-2015, 06:45 PM   #545
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Not so sure about that. My tea leaves this morning said we may have already had the low for the year.
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Old 08-27-2015, 06:49 PM   #546
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Either way is fine with me. If it goes down, I may buy some. If it goes up, I may sell some. And I do not necessarily buy or sell the same stuff. I have different stocks and ETFs in different sectors, and buy/sell as it fits my fancy.
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Old 08-31-2015, 06:09 AM   #547
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Exited ERX position late on Friday for a gain of 1.75 per share. Taxable account.

Gain offset by a prior short term loss that carried forward from prior year.
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Old 08-31-2015, 07:49 AM   #548
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My weekly SPY 188.5/184.5 put spread has just about reached full value of $1.50 with SPY at 196.90 Its about as safely above the 188.50 strike with expiry tomorrow as you can get so I will do nothing and let everything expire worthless and keep my premium. As it turns out I would've made more money buy not spreading and just sticking with the naked 188.5's but thats results oriented thinking The move was the correct one on a risk / reward basis.

I don't post my day trading results because I do too many of them but this one was interesting. I put in an order to buy WSM at 76.25. I got half the order filled and the stock immediately popped. I sold it 15 secs later at 77.10 for a 1.1% profit. Too bad the whole order didnt get filled
All of my weekly SPY options expired worthless allowing me to keep all of my $1.50 premium per spread. I will most likely make a similar trade this week.
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Old 08-31-2015, 07:51 AM   #549
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I just opened a Sep/Oct 105 put calendar trade on Apple for $1.39. I'm short the Sept 105 puts and long the Oct 105 puts. I'm looking to profit on another short term dip.
I also opened a Sep/Oct 70 put calendar spread on WYNN on Thur. WYNN was trading at 78.25 and I paid $1.37 for the spread. WYNN is a total dog of a stock and I fully expect it to drop close to 70 sometime soon.
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Old 08-31-2015, 12:32 PM   #550
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I sold weekly SPY 192.5 puts for $1.15 earlier when SPY was at 197.67. I normally never use a strike that far OOM, but the VIX is high enough to collect good premium with less risk.
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Old 08-31-2015, 12:59 PM   #551
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Are you ready to pony up $19,000 for every $100 of profit on those puts? To me the return is just to meager for the risk and money, unless you are willing to go on margin if we spiked down to $180 and you were assigned a ton of shares.
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Old 08-31-2015, 01:28 PM   #552
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Are you ready to pony up $19,000 for every $100 of profit on those puts? To me the return is just to meager for the risk and money, unless you are willing to go on margin if we spiked down to $180 and you were assigned a ton of shares.
Risking $19,000 for every $100 of profit? Really? You think SPY is going to Zero?

My break even is 191.35 which is a 4% drop for the week. I think the odds of falling that far are low. If we spiked down to 180 I would lose $1135 per put, but the odds of that are low. That's more than a 10% drop in a week. If I did this every week and SPY dropped that far once every 11 weeks I would break even. How often does SPY drop more than 10%? You and I both know its a hell of a lot less than once every 11 weeks.
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Old 08-31-2015, 02:21 PM   #553
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Risking $19,000 for every $100 of profit? Really? You think SPY is going to Zero?

My break even is 191.35 which is a 4% drop for the week. I think the odds of falling that far are low. If we spiked down to 180 I would lose $1135 per put, but the odds of that are low. That's more than a 10% drop in a week. If I did this every week and SPY dropped that far once every 11 weeks I would break even. How often does SPY drop more than 10%? You and I both know its a hell of a lot less than once every 11 weeks.
Yes, but it does happen occasionally. I am not saying it is a problem, but for me to get excited about selling $1 puts, I would want to sell at least 10 of them. Technically you need $190,000 in cash to cover this. Realistically the most you might lose is $10,000 or so if it dropped to $180 and stayed there long term.
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Old 08-31-2015, 04:07 PM   #554
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I actually did sell 10 of them and I need $190,000 in cash or $40,000 in what OptionsHouse calls margin buying power. I don't need any cash in my account at all. Just the collateral from my other holdings.

Back of the envelope calculations say this:
SPY moves up, stays flat or even drops 3% to 192.5 and I make $1150.
SPY drops below 192.50 and I still make money down to 191.35
Below 191.35 I start losing money
If it drops to 180 I lose $11350.

So I have a 10-1 max loss to max profit scenario and my max profit includes up to a 3% drop in SPY (on top of the 1% it was already down today when I made the trade).

I like my odds on the trade or I wouldn't have made it. So far SPY dropped a tad since I made the trade and I have made $230. I already made 20% of the max profit with a tad of a drop in SPY. This is a winning trade long term no matter what happens this time. Some people would say its break even long term if the options are priced correctly, and I guess thats true, but I dont think we will see nearly as much volatility as we did the last 2 weeks which means the options are priced higher than I think they should be.
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Old 09-01-2015, 02:43 PM   #555
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OK, I said I was going back to waiting, but something dramatic happened. So I submitted an order to buy VTIAX (Vanguard Total Int'l Stock Index) a moment ago which will execute at today's closing NAV which should be down more than 3% from yesterday.

I want this to be a short-term foray into overweighting a little bit, so tomorrow I will sell an equivalent amount of an international fund in an IRA or 401(k) if the ETF share class goes up tomorrow for a small gain. If things go down tomorrow, I don't know what I will do.
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Old 09-01-2015, 02:47 PM   #556
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I actually did sell 10 of them and I need $190,000 in cash or $40,000 in what OptionsHouse calls margin buying power. I don't need any cash in my account at all. Just the collateral from my other holdings.

Back of the envelope calculations say this:
SPY moves up, stays flat or even drops 3% to 192.5 and I make $1150.
SPY drops below 192.50 and I still make money down to 191.35
Below 191.35 I start losing money
If it drops to 180 I lose $11350.

So I have a 10-1 max loss to max profit scenario and my max profit includes up to a 3% drop in SPY (on top of the 1% it was already down today when I made the trade).

I like my odds on the trade or I wouldn't have made it. So far SPY dropped a tad since I made the trade and I have made $230. I already made 20% of the max profit with a tad of a drop in SPY. This is a winning trade long term no matter what happens this time. Some people would say its break even long term if the options are priced correctly, and I guess thats true, but I dont think we will see nearly as much volatility as we did the last 2 weeks which means the options are priced higher than I think they should be.
Not going to beat you up because I have lost money today too (just bought Gilead again at $102 and it is already $101) but the weekly SPY puts you sold are now in the money. It is a crazy market though and maybe SPY will be back above $191 by Friday (heck, or even in the last minutes today)
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Old 09-01-2015, 03:05 PM   #557
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Yeah, the position took a substantial hit today but its a long week. SPY could drop a little more the rest of the week without me losing any money on the position. My 2 put calendar spreads on AAPL and WYNN just about made up for the today's loss on the SPY puts though. They are up over 40% so far in just 3 days.

I also opened a Call calendar spread today on Google. Its a Sep/Oct 620 call spread that I paid $12.30 for when GOOG was ta $600. I expect at least a short term pop in GOOG over the next week or two.
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Old 09-01-2015, 05:10 PM   #558
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I wrote some 180 Oct Puts today, it looks like a missed $.25 a contract. If we get another 50 or 100 points down,I'll probably buy back some of the calls I wrote earlier.
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Old 09-02-2015, 08:30 AM   #559
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[…]
I want this to be a short-term foray into overweighting a little bit, so tomorrow I will sell an equivalent amount of an international fund in an IRA or 401(k) if the ETF share class goes up tomorrow for a small gain. If things go down tomorrow, I don't know what I will do.
EFA is trading up about 1.6% before the market opens, so I will try an experiment. I've submitted a small order to sell VEU before the market opens. I just want to see what the opening cross will do for this order. Later on, I will sell several hundred shares of VEU to unwind the purchase of VTIAX yesterday.

I expect to have made at least 1.5% in this 17+ hour trade.

[update] Opening cross for VEU was 43.93, so nice!
[update2] Sold rest of desired amounts and bought some BND with the proceeds. Back to waiting patiently for easy opportunities while losing money.
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Old 09-02-2015, 09:12 AM   #560
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EFA is trading up about 1.6% before the market opens, so I will try an experiment. I've submitted a small order to sell VEU before the market opens. I just want to see what the opening cross will do for this order. Later on, I will sell several hundred shares of VEU to unwind the purchase of VTIAX yesterday.

I expect to have made at least 1.5% in this 17+ hour trade.

[update] Opening cross for VEU was 43.93, so nice!
[update2] Sold rest of desired amounts and bought some BND with the proceeds. Back to waiting patiently for easy opportunities while losing money.
Details please? What do you mean by "opening cross"?
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