LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[bmcgonig]

Lets us know if the calls get executed early. I think its a good trade.

Will do.

Although the worst that can happen is that I have a gain of a little over 1.5%, even if they called it tomorrow.

(that kinda sounds too good to be true)

 

[LOL!]

@bmcgonig, thanks for posting this trade. I like it. Good luck!

 

[Fermion]

Recentcomments about drug pricing control plan created some bargains in biotech land today. I am in for a few ten k of various bios that dropped 3%...I expect they will bounce back later this week if the market continues up.

As expected, my biotech trades bounced back, especially Gilead, hitting $106.50 from a low of $102 something (I purchased calls when it was $103.80.

$7,900 in 24 hours. I should get a room comp'd or something.

 

[NW-Bound]

Wow, your timing is impeccable.

I only look at the stock screen a few times a day, and do not follow any individual stock in the biotech sector. However, I saw that the bear ETF biotech that I still had closed up yesterday. Trying to make money trading intraday is too tough for me.

 

[Fermion]

Actually, timing it perfectly is very hard. I could have made a lot more if I could buy exactly at the bottom and top for the day. The important thing is to buy at a lower price than you sell

Also important in this volatile period is to not get greedy. If the stock is going to bounce up and down up and down, you sell when you have a profit, because it will be going back down soon. I abandon the stock if it breaks out...I don't chase it higher.

For Gilead, I would be buying at $102 to $104 area and selling at $106 to $108. If I sell at $106 and it goes to $112, I don't buy it, I just sit in cash until it goes back to $103. It seems to do that quite often, but eventually it will get above $110 and stay there.

 

[papadad111]

I bought some ERX at the close today. One of my favorite short term trades.

The volatility being a 3x ETF is significant That it's an oil ETF makes it even more interesting.

 

[utrecht]

I closed my long term SPY trade just now. I originally sold 10 SPY Dec199 puts for 15.25 back in mid January when SPY was at 199. Its at 192.25 and I bought them back for 11.25 giving me a $4000 profit (2.2% profit) while SPY was down about 3.5%. At one point I had somewhere near a $10000 profit in this trade.

I'll look to re-enter a similar trade later. I see more downside coming.

I still have my SPY Oct 1X2 189/180 put spread open. Max profit is at SPY 180.

 

[Fermion]

I think different. I think we see a bottom today and level or slightly up tomorrow.

I am looking to rebuy Gilead in the low $103 range today. Celgene is down 2%...if Gilead drops 2% it will be at the $103 level.

 

[utrecht]

I think different. I think we see a bottom today and level or slightly up tomorrow.

I am looking to rebuy Gilead in the low $103 range today. Celgene is down 2%...if Gilead drops 2% it will be at the $103 level.

I think you are talking very short term. Im talking about the market continuing to sink slowly over the next month or two.

Which calls are you trading? I like GILD a lot better at 100

 

[utrecht]

Just sold weekly SPY 189 puts for 0.62 with SPY at 191.10

 

[Fermion]

I think you are talking very short term. Im talking about the market continuing to sink slowly over the next month or two.

Which calls are you trading? I like GILD a lot better at 100

I have been trading the Jan $95 calls.

I sure like GILD at $100 too. Almost a sure thing at $95 with $12 a share in earnings.

 

[YeahNo]

S&P just hit my next tier of buy in so looks like I'll be loading up today if this remains through the day. My action point is 1917.

 

[fanmail]

Thank you guys for this very insightful thread. I was inspired to sell some Dec oom puts on SPY this morning when the Dow was down about 250 anf SPY was 191ish.

 

[utrecht]

GILD dropped below 100. I created a call calendar by selling Oct 105 calls and buying Nov 105 calls. This is a bullish strategy that maximizes profits if GILD is at 105 at Oct expiration. Trade cost $2.11

It is lower risk and lower reward than just buying calls, and makes profit a higher percentage of the time.

 

[Fermion]

I rebought the Jan $95 calls just now too...although I did not create a spread. Hope it doesn't crash *too* much more but maybe we could actually see $95.

 

[Fermion]

I also just bought 200 shares of AMGN at $137

I think biotech is quite oversold...well some of biotech.

 

[utrecht]

I just did something I do about once every year or two. I just sold some of my long term holdings. I trade all the time, but that's just a small part of my total portfolio. I just went from 60/40 to 50/50. Like I said, I almost never try to time the market like this with my long term holdings but I have a really bad feeling and I believe the the downside risk is much higher than the upside potential for the rest of the year.

I reserve the right to change my mind as I watch the charts.

My last trade in my long term account was at the very beginning of this year when I sold all of my Energy fund and bought VDC (consumer discretionary ETF). The energy fund is down 21% since then and VDC is down 4.5%.

 

[papadad111]

I have been sitting on a lot of VXUS. It's down about 12% from where I bought. It pays a 3 percent dividend. Really thinking to hang on as at some point the European QE has to kick in. But this think keeps drifting down and down.

Overall markets headed lower now through year end. Not much Santa rally. No panic in the streets which concerns me most.

Fed uncertainty. Political uncertainty. Global uncertainty.

 

[Fermion]

Gilead and Amgen remain very oversold but creeping lower. $95 may be a possibility now, maybe even $85 or $90 for Gilead. It is really hard to believe biotech is overvalued when Gilead trades for $96 with $11 or $12 per share in earnings and paying a dividend. It is trading like an oil stock. I just have to figure out where the bottom is and buy heavy there

 

[utrecht]

Ive saved a chunk so far by selling a pile of my long term hold SPY shares on Friday. I'll mostly likely re-buy if the markets falls another 5%. Ive been wanting to exchange them for VTI anyway.

I just sold weekly SPY 187 puts for $1.10.

 

[LOL!]

Just sold at a small gain the BND shares (bond index fund) bought on 9/15 (link) in anticipation of buying some shares of VXF (extended market index) with the proceeds if VXF drops a little bit more later today.

VXF went ex-dividend last week and the payable date is tomorrow, so I dunno but maybe it will go up tomorrow from folks having their dividends automatically re-invested.

 

[Fermion]

Going to go out on a limb here and predict the market closes down 400 points today.

 

[aja8888]

Going to go out on a limb here and predict the market closes down 400 points today.

I guess the market is correcting like everyone wanted it to.

 

[utrecht]

Going to go out on a limb here and predict the market closes down 400 points today.

I would bet you it doesnt. Nevermind. I already bet by selling the SPY weekly 187 puts.

 

[LOL!]

OK, bought VXF a moment ago. It was down 3.5% for the day which is about 1% more down than VTI (total US market index) and 1.5% more down than IJS (small-cap value index).

I don't have time to track down which company or companies made VXF lower than expected today.

Update after market close: Looks like biotech might have been the culprit to drag VXF lower than some mid/small-cap index funds.