Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 11-05-2015, 02:49 PM   #781
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,532
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
I am not short-term trading BND. It is part of my long-term asset allocation.

Can't one do a little market timing when purchasing long-term holdings?

... I do not mind moving a 6-figure amount from one holding to another.
OK, so you are doing a much milder form of market timing by making judgement call on when to rebalance. What I am doing is pure market timing, but I am chicken so do not dare trade a big portion of portfolio with 2x or 3x leveraged ETF.

Still, in the end analysis, what we are doing may not be that different. I still have $65K out on various leveraged ETFs on high-beta sectors, and that is equivalent to playing $200K with S&P 500.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-05-2015, 04:12 PM   #782
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,352
I carved out $100K to do the CapitalOne360 thing for both of us. Yeah it is only $1200 or so for 90 days hold but it is 100% guaranteed unlike most of my dealings. This leaves me with not a lot of trading money until I get rid of these 45 Corning Jan 2017 $13 call options. Corning just keeps going up for some reason (could be the 50% buyback?) so I guess not trading is actually making me money. Who would have thought we would be back to DOW 18,000 so fast?
__________________

__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2015, 07:22 AM   #783
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,532
Yesterday, I bought a few $K of a 3x leveraged EM ETF. Markets around the world have been knocked quite a bit since the US job report came out and fortified the chance of the Fed raising rate in December. The movement was overdone, and I think it is turning around.

I do not want to do more than a bit of money just as a lark, because I still have a lot more tied up in trades that have not unwound due to their options not yet expiring. When these covered calls expire, depending on whether the shares get called or not I may have more money to gamble, er, invest in these short-term plays.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2015, 11:59 AM   #784
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,759
Interesting that you bought a 3X leveraged EM ETF here. I am patiently waiting for the interest rate tick to work its way through the markets.

In the meantime, I am fully invested in my asset allocation except for a little bit of cash from dividends sloshing around that I have to move from one account to another, then invest. My portfolio managing this month will be to convert some to a Roth IRA and then recharacterize another Roth IRA.

I think patience will be rewarded here.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2015, 12:05 PM   #785
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,532
It's for a very short-term move, playing on a bounce. When I make a few hundred bucks with this bet of a few $K, I am going to book it. It may happen in just a few days, if I call it correctly. These leveraged ETFs are not suitable for long-term holding anyway.

PS. Today, it has not moved much. I hope it will not resume the slide. Maybe mentioning it here will jinx it.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-11-2015, 12:32 PM   #786
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 731
Been reviewing individual holdings against my target asset allocation.


Must say that overseas holdings have been underwhelming. My 4yr holding of VWO has been dismal.


I may take Bogle's crystal ball prediction and reduce my overseas allocation so that I can say I'm 'in', but no longer be a continual downward drag.
__________________
BBQ-Nut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2015, 04:00 AM   #787
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
We are below water for the year again SP 500 below 200 day moving average.

Lots of retail anxiety in Q4 and the Black Friday deals are now being pulled up to earlier in the month of November : singles day.

So here is my forecast.

Near term we will keep bleeding 0.25 - 0.5 percent per day. Small down days will land us lower-- will end the year we will be down 3-5 percent for the year. 1950 or so ..


Long term. 2016 will be another down year and 2017 will start off down too and end up about where we are today - SP 2100. New market highs not til 2018. Interest rates will rise , but less than 75 basis points from where we are today.

Position yourself in equities that pay dividends and probably better to hold cash vs Bonds. Dollar will move up just a bit from here. Not a lot more.

The upside bet is for stabilization in oil and related energy shares. 55 will be the norm for a barrel of crude.

I don't like it. Looking into a long dated out of the money SP500 or similar broad market put strategy.

Hmmm.
__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2015, 06:27 AM   #788
Recycles dryer sheets
jfn111's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Bloomington, MN
Posts: 182
Quote:
Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
We are below water for the year again SP 500 below 200 day moving average.

Lots of retail anxiety in Q4 and the Black Friday deals are now being pulled up to earlier in the month of November : singles day.

So here is my forecast.

Near term we will keep bleeding 0.25 - 0.5 percent per day. Small down days will land us lower-- will end the year we will be down 3-5 percent for the year. 1950 or so ..


Long term. 2016 will be another down year and 2017 will start off down too and end up about where we are today - SP 2100. New market highs not til 2018. Interest rates will rise , but less than 75 basis points from where we are today.

Position yourself in equities that pay dividends and probably better to hold cash vs Bonds. Dollar will move up just a bit from here. Not a lot more.

The upside bet is for stabilization in oil and related energy shares. 55 will be the norm for a barrel of crude.

I don't like it. Looking into a long dated out of the money SP500 or similar broad market put strategy.

Hmmm.
With the amount of excess oil looking for storage space-
Something Very Strange Is Taking Place Off The Coast Of Galveston, TX | Zero Hedge
and Iranian oil coming online $55 per barrel might be optimistic.
__________________
jfn111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2015, 08:25 AM   #789
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,532
Yesterday, the EM market was holding up well initially while the S&P started dropping. Then, midday the whole world market succumbed, so my latest bet lost me money. Good thing the bet size was small.

There's a report out of OECD saying the world growth will continue to be subpar. Some of the smaller countries have not done well this year. Who would have thunk that lower oil prices would not help some of the smaller countries who import oil?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-13-2015, 06:06 PM   #790
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 658
Quote:
Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post

So here is my forecast.

Near term we will keep bleeding 0.25 - 0.5 percent per day. Small down days will land us lower-- will end the year we will be down 3-5 percent for the year. 1950 or so ..


Long term. 2016 will be another down year and 2017 will start off down too and end up about where we are today - SP 2100. New market highs not til 2018. Interest rates will rise , but less than 75 basis points from where we are today.

Position yourself in equities that pay dividends and probably better to hold cash vs Bonds. Dollar will move up just a bit from here. Not a lot more.

The upside bet is for stabilization in oil and related energy shares. 55 will be the norm for a barrel of crude.

I don't like it. Looking into a long dated out of the money SP500 or similar broad market put strategy.

Hmmm.
Yeah, I would not be surprised if most of your predictions come true, or pretty close anyway. I've been saying for a while now that this market is overdue to run out of gas. It's been artificially manipulated/propped up by the Fed for 6+ years now (with QE 1,2,3, zero interest rates, etc). All of that is coming to and end now, and as we (finally) get back to reality, earnings are just not there to support the significant gains we have seen. I have prepared myself (as best I can) for several years of sub-par market performance, as that is what I expect to see going forward from here. I do not think inflation will increase very much (if at all) from where it is right now, over the next few years.
__________________
RAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2015, 04:12 PM   #791
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 6,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by RAE View Post
Yeah, I would not be surprised if most of your predictions come true, or pretty close anyway. I've been saying for a while now that this market is overdue to run out of gas. It's been artificially manipulated/propped up by the Fed for 6+ years now (with QE 1,2,3, zero interest rates, etc). All of that is coming to and end now, and as we (finally) get back to reality, earnings are just not there to support the significant gains we have seen. I have prepared myself (as best I can) for several years of sub-par market performance, as that is what I expect to see going forward from here. I do not think inflation will increase very much (if at all) from where it is right now, over the next few years.

That has been pretty much what my cheap crystal ball has repeatedly said. So I have pretty much been all in mostly on investment grade preferred stocks and ETD. I just collect the 6-7% dividends and move on. They have been very good, safe and relatively immune to any of the market volatility. I don't see much in the future that will change it and hopefully there will not be.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Mulligan is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-14-2015, 09:13 PM   #792
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,352
I bought Seadrill at $5.95 Friday morning and sold it at $6.42 the same day. Incredible swings in this market. Unfortunately I also bought Gilead at $103 Friday and it closed at $102. So about even on Friday, maybe a little ahead.
__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2015, 04:16 PM   #793
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,532
Two weeks have gone by, and nobody traded anything?

I have not done any trade since the bitty purchase of a leveraged EM ETF. I lost a bit of money on paper, then made money also on paper. Then, yesterday, it dropped big and I am back to being slightly in the red.

But there was action going on my account nevertheless. A bunch of covered call options expired, some in the money, some worthless. I now have 25% cash in that account to play with.

Don't know what to do yet. Most likely, more of the same: buy some ETFs and write out-of-the-money covered calls on them as well as the ones I still hold.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2015, 06:34 PM   #794
Recycles dryer sheets
jfn111's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Bloomington, MN
Posts: 182
I bought some PFF for the wife's IRA. My individual stock picking has sucked this year so I'll take some dividends.
__________________
jfn111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-28-2015, 06:41 PM   #795
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,759
Since my last trade on 10/29, my portfolio is up a mere 0.06%. I think patience is still the watchword here.

I've been mostly reviewing my tax situation this holiday. I have donated some shares to charity, given my college kid some shares to sell (no taxes) and put the money in a Roth IRA. I've also asked my spouse to change her 401(k) contribution to capture more employer-match, and to increase tax withholding since we've paid less than $1,000 in income taxes up to now which is way too little. I've worked out how much of my teaching income to contribute to my solo 401(k). Finally, I've done some tax "What if?"s to figure out if I need to recharacterize a Roth conversion and the answer will depend on whether or not my spouse gets a bonus in mid-December, so I will have to do it all again in a few weeks.

Trades? In all this excitement I kinda forgot what those are.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2015, 11:16 AM   #796
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,759
Earlier this week, the BND that I bought at the end of October finally recovered back to the value I purchased it at. Then Yellen had some speeches and a congressional appearance, so today it has dropped more than 0.6% so far. As I think I have noted before, bond funds like this do not drop 0.5% in one day very often.

So I have submitted a small buy order using some recent monthly dividends with a limit price a little bit lower than current price. I will update later today the status of that order.

I am thinking also of exchanging some money from a short-term bond fund to a total bond fund (intermediate) at some point around the December FOMC announcement. I'll let folks know about that when I make a move.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2015, 11:42 AM   #797
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,352
I have been darting in and out of shorting Netflix (which is funny since I am a Netflix subscriber). Rarely stay in a trade longer than an hour or two, but just messing around with the surge mid morning then the falloff around lunch eastern time. Long term the stock seems to be headed toward a market cap greater than Apple. Total gambling, but then so are oil stocks, healthcare, ...
__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2015, 12:42 PM   #798
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,759
BND down 0.7% now, so my order was executed.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2015, 10:30 AM   #799
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,532
Last week, I sold puts on a leveraged S&P ETF. If by April 2016, the S&P rises or does not drop more than 3%, I make 8% return on the cash I am holding to cover this bet. If the S&P drops more than 6% from here, I will have to buy the shares at a loss.

Only a small bet of a low 5-figure sum, so this money that I am looking to gain will be just enough for grocery for a couple of months. But depending on how the market plays out, I will use more of the cash I have in this manner.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-06-2015, 10:41 AM   #800
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Seattle
Posts: 2,352
I have been doing the "Hillary" trade in biotech and last week was pretty good. Gilead was dragged over the coals for internal documents about how they were trying to maximize profits (the horror!) and it brought down all of biotech for a day or two. I purchased Amgen at $155 and Gilead at $101.50. Both came back strong on Friday, Amgen particularly well (up 4%).

Long term I think this will go about as far as the fiasco with Apple where Tim was brought before Congress and asked why Apple was legally trying to pay as little tax as possible. In other words, biotech is pretty safe IMO, at least from this.
__________________

__________________
Fermion is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market Timing Strategy Earl E Retyre FIRE and Money 141 10-28-2011 03:09 PM
Money Market funds in potential danger. clifp FIRE and Money 22 07-06-2011 07:10 AM
When it comes to photos, timing makes the shot REWahoo Other topics 0 07-01-2011 02:19 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:53 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.