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Old 01-04-2016, 08:50 AM   #821
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I was up late last night, saw that the Chinese market dropped 7% and trading was halted.

Woke up just now, and saw the Dow dropping 400 points or more than 2%. Fun time!

Not buying nor selling. May buy if it drops some more in the days ahead.


PS. Oops. Just saw one of my cash-covered put option orders just hits. This one is on a biotech ETF.
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Old 01-04-2016, 09:03 AM   #822
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Originally Posted by Brat View Post
Thank God for a balanced portfolio. My total is actually up today while the DOW went down 330.
Déjà vu from one year ago.

The general market will have to go down more than 3% before I get interested.
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Old 01-04-2016, 09:14 AM   #823
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Market is already down 2%. You can get another 2% right now with a Feb put option.
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Old 01-04-2016, 09:15 AM   #824
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I'm feeling pretty lucky today. In mid December I moved my 401k entirely into the stable vale fund in preparation to rolling in into an IRA, plus DW exercised a large chunk of her options. We're heavy in cash during this downturn while reevaluating our asset allocation. Might luck into some discount shopping this month!


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Old 01-04-2016, 10:37 AM   #825
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I am just so glad I put $100k into that CapitalOne360 deal. Kind of wish I had put $200k in, but I would need two more wives.
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:01 AM   #826
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Looking at KMI again.

Started eyeballing March 2016 near the money calls 15 and 17.50 strike.
Have not pulled trigger but thinking


Mad money only.

Sold the March KMI calls this morning at 1.31 for a quick 20 percent gain. I'll take it with everything else in the dumps.

Look out below. 1850
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:01 AM   #827
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I am just so glad I put $100k into that CapitalOne360 deal. Kind of wish I had put $200k in, but I would need two more wives.

What was the deal?
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:08 AM   #828
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What was the deal?
$1000 for $100k deposit in two accounts plus 0.75% interest rate. Works out to over 3% a year annualized.

Sleep at night money.
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:15 AM   #829
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I'm putting a bit of money into the market here. Specifically VTI and or SPY below 200 ...

Long term holding for dividends and to get back to a 90/10 allocation of equity to cash (I never have held bonds) Currently @ 87/13.

I'm in drawdown phase but early retiree so feel I do need to be more aggressive and exposed to broad equities and dividend income.

The international stuff like VXUS looks cheap but already is 20 percent of my portfolio so no more. It's all way down from where I got in ... Was the big drag on portfolio alpha in 2015.
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:16 AM   #830
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$1000 for $100k deposit in two accounts plus 0.75% interest rate. Works out to over 3% a year annualized.

Sleep at night money.

Nice plan. I'll look into it. Really wanted a deal like pen fed 3 percent ... Wishful thinking ...
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Old 01-04-2016, 11:21 AM   #831
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Watching markets all day ....

Bet we have a strong up rally this afternoon. Up 20 points from 1995 on SP500... Just a gut feel. Oil was up 4 pct and gave it all back. Strange trading today.

China market action is actually irrelevant other than sentiment - just an excuse for a good sell off and new year positioning.
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:15 PM   #832
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Well. Quiet in here

The mid day market rally on Monday happened per prediction - and the longer downtrend continues. Near term 1950 on SP500 and longer term 1850 I predict.

Have not altered portfolio as it would trigger taxable capital gains. My positions pay dividends and I'm in it for the long term so no sense trying to time the broad market.

10 percent seems likely to 1950 near term. Then up in February as the 401k money rolls in. Then down from there to 1850 ...

My real ugly bearish case sees as much as 25% downside from the last market high of approx 2150 through the calendar year 2017. That would land us at 1600 or so on SP500. Only 20 percent probability though.

Perhaps some long dated put options are still in order as a trade position.

Volatility is definitely back and trading my mad money will hopefully generate some whipped cream , nuts and cherry opportunities ...
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Old 01-06-2016, 12:20 PM   #833
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A little tax-loss harvesting ...
Old 01-07-2016, 12:14 PM   #834
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A little tax-loss harvesting ...

So I started some tax-loss harvesting moves today.

After 11 am, I watched the market start to drift lower, so I sold some shares of a large-cap US ETF and waited a little bit. Then I bought shares of a different large-cap US ETF at a slightly lower equivalent price.

I have more of these trades to do, so back to the grind.
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Old 01-07-2016, 01:03 PM   #835
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OK, done for the day. Exchanged VV into VTI. Exchanged VCSH into IVV (increasing allocation to equities).

In the coming days, if anything goes up from here, then I intend to try to book a short-term gains. If things go down from here, then I will look stupid which has happened many times before.
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Old 01-07-2016, 06:21 PM   #836
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A good day to be cash-rich.

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Old 01-07-2016, 06:33 PM   #837
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The first 5 days of January are supposed to tell you what the rest of year will do.
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Old 01-07-2016, 07:23 PM   #838
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Quote:
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$1000 for $100k deposit in two accounts plus 0.75% interest rate. Works out to over 3% a year annualized.

Sleep at night money.
How do you get 3%? $1,000 bonus is 1% plus the 0.75% regular interest or 1.75% if deposited and held for a year.
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Old 01-07-2016, 07:26 PM   #839
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How do you get 3%? $1,000 bonus is 1% plus the 0.75% regular interest or 1.75% if deposited and held for a year.
The key word is "annualized". I suspect the money will stay there for only a few months. For instance, 1% for 4 months is 3% annualized.
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Old 01-07-2016, 11:35 PM   #840
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I see what Fermion meant but it is a bit misleading to frame it as 3% because he really can't earn 3% in a year because CapitalOne isn't stupid enough to pay him more than one 1% bonus.
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