LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[Fedup]

^When are you going to tell us exactly when you buy these things and the ticker symbols?

I'm posting in near real-time, so folks can see that I sold that VNQ too soon today and missed out on another 0.5% gain.

In other news, my asset allocation is now exactly where I want it for awhile. I do not expect to post any trades for awhile even though I have to reinvest some month-end dividends when they arrive in a few days. They are too small to note in this thread.

I don't want to jinx my trade.


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[LOL!]

I love to jinx all my trades as that is what reality is all about.

Based on my experiences, at some point you should be posting about some of your losses every now and then.

 

[Fedup]

I hold the losses, that's when I buy and hold. Right now it's VWO for a small loss that I incurred in my portfolio. I lost my chance to buy more when it went lower today. I set the price too low. So that's my game, ping ponging back and forth, I buy more if it drops, when it goes higher than when I bought, not substantial but reasonable, I sell them. If it goes lower than I buy again. I become a buy and hold when it's not worth my while to sell.
The rest of my money is invested in mutual funds that are not for trading.


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[Fermion]

I decided to stop having losses because gains are more exciting.

 

[LOL!]

I started this thread years ago for several reasons:

1. To help people hone their market timing skills,
2. To show people they have behavioral biases and fears, and
3. To show good days when to rebalance one's portfolio as they happen, not after they happen.

 

[Fedup]

I thought we are not supposed to market timing. To do so is a fool's game. Anyway I'm only a day or a few days trader. It has nothing to do with AA. Today is an ugly day, the stock I short went up and stock I own went down. But I'm glad I didn't hold on to energy ETF. I bought more vwo, if this stock pops today later, I will sell it, to reduce the pain of my buy and hold portion. If not, I'm a buy and hold category, lol. I notice this stock trends lower in the morning and goes higher later.


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[NW-Bound]

I do not think market timing is bad if it means you strive to be a contrarian and conquer fear and greed to buy low and sell high. I do not day trade because I am not good at it to make money.

The above said, today looks like a bad market day. It is a bit early to be sure, but it looks like my May/June covered calls are going to be worthless and I will pocket the premiums. The bad news is that the gains there are minuscule compared to the overall portfolio loss. Oh well, these covered calls are still better than nothing.

Here waiting for more pain in the market before I switch to the cash-secured put selling mode.

 

[Sunset]

I started this thread years ago for several reasons:

1. To help people hone their market timing skills,
2. To show people they have behavioral biases and fears, and
3. To show good days when to rebalance one's portfolio as they happen, not after they happen.

I like the thread, it gives me ideas.
I think having a core bulk of your investments in something broad and holding it for a long time is fine.
But the exciting this is to take a very small amount of money, and put it into something you think will make a big pile of money.

Sure it's gambling, but countered with your own appraisal of various influences, so its not as much a gamble as a coin toss.
Plus if you are smart about it, you can limit your loss potential.

After all, nothing feels so good as to win.

 

[Sunset]

Previously I made about 1.4K on some BRK.B leaps.

I decided to repeat this idea, but neglected to post here, so here is it is:
I bought a couple of deep in the money Leaps on BRK.B when it was at $130, mid February.
Really just a small "gamble" of $10,000

I am too chicken, conservative, careful to bet the farm, but 10K makes it interesting to watch.

So far my potential profit is roughly 2.2K .
I did try to sell them a month ago but was priced too high, which is good as I was too eager to capture a profit, when I can let them ride for another year.

 

[Totoro]

Apparently people are writing CDS on Berkshire (Warren buffett mentioned it during the shareholder meeting).

Wish I could be on the selling side of that one, my broker doesn't have em.

 

[LOL!]

I thought we are not supposed to market timing. To do so is a fool's game.

I think one should not do the bad kind of market timing. You know, day trading and losing money.

The good kind of market timing works pretty well. You know, buying low and selling high with patience. It might also be labelled "Buy, Hold, and Rebalance."

Anyways, I don't have a play account nor do I keep a separate pile of money for the trades in this thread. This thread keeps me honest with my market timing strategy. So far, so good. I'm doing 31% better this year than my benchmarks which translates into tens of thousands of dollars better and not just a few bucks.

 

[Fedup]

It depends on your goal. My goal is to earn more than bonds fund and money market rate. And I never trade on large amount.
Edit to add, my trading has earned more than bnd, voo, Wellesley, Wellington and I just started this trading thing recently on a small amount. I need to have proven record for a least a year before I increase the amount I'm willing to trade.

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[LOL!]

^That makes sense to me. But I think on should remove emotions (as evidenced from "jinx my trade") and state what one buys and when and why. I think that helps one not get caught up in the emotions.

Then also state reasons for selling perhaps even ahead of time as in stating the trigger points for selling when one actually buys. That way, one will not get caught up in euphoria when thing go up as planned while still be able to sell when things do not go as planned.

 

[Fedup]

I did jinx my trade today. It was not sold. I won't mention my trade again.


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[Fedup]

^That makes sense to me. But I think on should remove emotions (as evidenced from "jinx my trade") and state what one buys and when and why. I think that helps one not get caught up in the emotions.

Then also state reasons for selling perhaps even ahead of time as in stating the trigger points for selling when one actually buys. That way, one will not get caught up in euphoria when thing go up as planned while still be able to sell when things do not go as planned.

You must be kidding right? The market is full of manipulators. I don't have triggers point until I see the trigger points. Tough requirements, I won't make it.
I might stay off your thread forever.


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[LOL!]

You must be kidding right? The market is full of manipulators. I don't have triggers point until I see the trigger points. Tough requirements, I won't make it.
I might stay off your thread forever.

I'm not kidding at all. A $50,000 to $100,000 trade is not going to be manipulated for the ETFs that I trade. I think that's just superstition talking to you. Since I see you trade VWO, the volume is so high and this ETF is so liquid, I think you can be assured there is no manipulation going on.

If you go back over my posts in this thread, I think I try to state why I buy and why I sell. I certainly try to state ahead of time when I intend to sell.

It has been a pretty good month. All the things I sold are now at a lower price and the things I bought are at a higher price. See for instance: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f44/lol-s-market-timing-newsletter-57042-55.html#post1718725

And the funny thing is that VNQ went up today even though I sold some shares yesterday and every other equity fund was down. However, the VNQ is not up as much as the bond fund I bought with the money from selling VNQ.

 

[Fedup]

I'm not kidding at all. A $50,000 to $100,000 trade is not going to be manipulated for the ETFs that I trade. I think that's just superstition talking to you. Since I see you trade VWO, the volume is so high and this ETF is so liquid, I think you can be assured there is no manipulation going on.

If you go back over my posts in this thread, I think I try to state why I buy and why I sell. I certainly try to state ahead of time when I intend to sell.

It has been a pretty good month. All the things I sold are now at a lower price and the things I bought are at a higher price.

And the funny thing is that VNQ went up today even though I sold some shares yesterday and every other equity fund was down. However, the VNQ is not up as much as the bond fund I bought with the money from selling VNQ.

I day trade, big difference. I trade stocks every day in 2014, there are market manipulation. Prices vary from morning to afternoon. You can see the pattern when the traders pile in and when they let go.
Also I didn't know that's the requirement to post on this thread. Since I won't be able to state up front, I won't post on this thread any more.


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[LOL!]

You made trades every day in 2014? Who is your broker? How much in commissions did you pay for all of 2014 (or any year)? Is this in a tax-advantaged account so that you do not have to worry about taxes and filling out a Schedule D?

And yes, I know one can see when traders (or computer algos) pile in and out. I use real-time level II quotes via TradeArchitect at TDAmeritrade to help with my decisions.

There is no requirement to post in real-time on this thread, but I hope you can appreciate that others cannot learn from you unless you expose your thinking when you make buys and when you make sells.

 

[Fedup]

You made trades every day in 2014? Who is your broker? How much in commissions did you pay for all of 2014 (or any year)? Is this in a tax-advantaged account so that you do not have to worry about taxes and filling out a Schedule D?

There is no requirement to post in real-time on this thread, but I hope you can appreciate that others cannot learn from you unless you expose your thinking when you make buys and when you make sells.

Scottrade. Tax account. I did have a horrible tax filling year, so that's why I don't day trade so much. But 15 minutes in/out I can make $1000 to $2000, if it's failed trade I make minimum wage. I don't know if people want to learn anything from me, remember, I'm a stupid day trader. You can lose your shirt day tradin. But it's a psychology game for sure.


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[NW-Bound]

Nothing is stupid if one makes money, by legal means I might add.

I have read of day traders making millions. But I am just not good at it, so have to be content with doing month trades or year trades.

 

[LOL!]

Since VNQ is still going up and other things are going down, I am going to sell the rest of the VNQ I bought a couple weeks ago. Gain in VNQ is about 2%, but I avoided losses of 2% in other things, so I'd like to call it a net 4% gain over my benchmark.

If VNQ tanks in the next hour, then I have jinxed the trade by announcing it hours ahead of time and I will not place the trade.

Update: Sold at 84.57 which is near the high so far today.

 

[NW-Bound]

Still waiting for my wife's 401k to report, but I am already down 2% compared to last Wed. That's much more than my expenses YTD.

Darn! Good thing I have not been buying anything lately. Is the public in fear yet for me to buy? I guess not.

 

[LOL!]

Sorry for delayed comment. Thanks for answering

Scottrade. Tax account.

Wow, that's $7 a trade unless you get free trades and/or you have bonus money to run through. If you made a trade every day in 2014, that's like $1400 in commissions which is $1400 too much for me.

Also, taxes on short-term capital gains must be a killer.

I really do pay attention to taxes and commissions. I will rarely make any trades that create extra commissions and taxes for me -- maybe once every 5 years or so. It's like getting an extra 25% return on my trades.

 

[NW-Bound]

I just bought back a cash-covered put on Berkshire, expiry Jun, strike price $130. BRK is at $144 now, so the option most likely will expire worthless.

However, it has dropped to 1/10 of what I sold it at, so might as well buy it back to free up the money for the next opportunity.

In the same vein, I also bought back a June covered call on an EM ETF that has dropped to 1/10 of what I sold. This is for preparation to write another call further out in time.


PS. The BRK put was sold in Dec 2015. Wow, I forgot it has been that long. The EM covered call was sold just 2 weeks ago!

 

[Totoro]

How much premium (contract size 100 I presume) did you get for the Berkshire put?