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Old 01-25-2016, 09:33 PM   #921
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Being in the oil & gas business for over 30 years, and knowing what and who I know, I wouldn't put a dime in this business until at least 2017 after most of the over-leveraged companies are gone.

Also, by then (hopefully), U.S. crude production will be down significantly, Canada exports of crude will be very low, and the Middle East will have come to their senses.
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Old 01-25-2016, 09:46 PM   #922
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Being in the oil & gas business for over 30 years, and knowing what and who I know, I wouldn't put a dime in this business until at least 2017 after most of the over-leveraged companies are gone.



Also, by then (hopefully), U.S. crude production will be down significantly, Canada exports of crude will be very low, and the Middle East will have come to their senses.

Aja, you bring up a point on over leverage that just confounds me with people on other income investing forums. It is a 100% amazing how they invest in debt/preferred issues and have no clue or understanding of the capital structure of a company. That is like saying your going cook dinner from scratch and don't even know how to turn on a stove. I wonder if they think companies are issuing 8-12% debt issues because they are very nice people and like giving free money away.


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Old 01-26-2016, 12:46 PM   #923
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Definitely not long term trade. This stuff is for the "in and out/daily pop factor only"...

interesting market action today. From my post last night:

Chesepeak is up 7.3% for the day
Devon is up 7%
AMLP is up 3.9%
SDRL is up 12.5%
KMI is up 6%

The other ones I was looking at were
Freeport McMoran is up 9%
CAT is even up 2.1%

And the broad market is up 1.3%

This would have been a profitable 1-day trade of between 8-10 % depending on mix. Ah well....
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Old 01-26-2016, 12:56 PM   #924
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Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
Definitely not long term trade. This stuff is for the "in and out/daily pop factor only"...

interesting market action today. From my post last night:

Chesepeak is up 7.3% for the day
Devon is up 7%
AMLP is up 3.9%
SDRL is up 12.5%
KMI is up 6%

The other ones I was looking at were
Freeport McMoran is up 9%
CAT is even up 2.1%

And the broad market is up 1.3%

This would have been a profitable 1-day trade of between 8-10 % depending on mix. Ah well....

I thought of you today, Papa! Sorry, I helped talk you out of it....Of course I was thinking in terms of investments not pop trades... I don't have big enough stones to ever do that. One thing is sure, the stocks have jumped, but the underlying fundamentals haven't. I would be flat broke gambling on day to day movements of stocks!


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Old 01-26-2016, 02:08 PM   #925
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No worry. Like stones in a babbling brook. Just have to reach down and pick up a few when the timing is right.

I would never trade like this in my portfolio. This market timing stuff is just fun /mad money. It's fun to see how much one can parlay a position.

I don't have the guts any longer to do this for my main portfolio. In my 20's. Yes. Not now.
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Old 01-26-2016, 05:24 PM   #926
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No worry. Like stones in a babbling brook. Just have to reach down and pick up a few when the timing is right.

I would never trade like this in my portfolio. This market timing stuff is just fun /mad money. It's fun to see how much one can parlay a position.

I don't have the guts any longer to do this for my main portfolio. In my 20's. Yes. Not now.

Ok...Now I see the light! You were writing yesterday about not having any cap gains and been flat since 2014 in some funds. I thought this was a trade to "make up for lost time". That is why I was so negative toward your thoughts. I didn't realize this was just the ol gambling account. I have one of those too, but it is dedicated to sports betting. Im afraid if I did that with my investment money, there would be "leakage".


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Old 01-27-2016, 05:13 PM   #927
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True story of what happened today follows.

I had been wanting to sell all the VTI (total US stock market) in a couple of IRAs because shares had been purchased in the past 30 days and they would interfere with some tax-loss harvesting of VTI that I wanted to do in a taxable account (see post #835: LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter).

I set up some limit orders to sell these positions. But I made a mistake: I wanted to sell at 97.23 and put in a limit order to do so, then got distracted.

I also forgot that a few days ago, I set up a couple of alerts to e-mail me if the price reached 97.21 because I was thinking a few days ago of selling, too. I think that was 1% or 2% above where VTI was trading a few days ago. Anyways, I forgot about the alerts, but they showed up today on my smart phone. So ...

I logged in to see how my limit order to sell was doing. It turns out it had not executed because I had transposed two digits and the limit was set for 97.32. Since VTI was trading in that range, I just changed the orders to be market orders and sold.

Then I was out the door to go running with the dog and have some lunch.

And you know the rest of the story: VTI closed 1.8% lower than what I sold it for.
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:34 PM   #928
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I opened up positions today in my gambling account as follows:
Each position $2000 equivalent shares..

Ticker-company / price per share (long)

CHK - chesapeak 3.18
DVN - devon energy 25.63
FCX - freeport mcmoran 4.67
KMI - kinder morgan 14.99
PSX - Philips 66 78.85
SDRL - sea drill 2.05

So, in total a $12K bet on oil ... I chose this versus a commodities or oil ETF.... I dont know why, typically I would just play ERX 3x leveraged ETF but thought about this last week and talked myself out of it...so talked myself back into it over the weekend. Lets track this to "keep me honest"....

I'm not sure how long I'll keep the position open. I actually thought I would buy call options (which would lever my position) but decided to just stick with an overall long position for now.
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:49 PM   #929
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I have not been putting in my trades... but for fun, I bought last week WMT, CPB and AEE approx $25k on each position. I'll try to be a bit more timely
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Old 02-02-2016, 03:58 PM   #930
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Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
I opened up positions today in my gambling account as follows:
Each position $2000 equivalent shares..

Ticker-company / price per share (long)

CHK - chesapeak 3.18
DVN - devon energy 25.63
FCX - freeport mcmoran 4.67
KMI - kinder morgan 14.99
PSX - Philips 66 78.85
SDRL - sea drill 2.05

So, in total a $12K 20K bet on oil ... I chose this versus a commodities or oil ETF.... I dont know why, typically I would just play ERX 3x leveraged ETF but thought about this last week and talked myself out of it...so talked myself back into it over the weekend. Lets track this to "keep me honest"....

I'm not sure how long I'll keep the position open. I actually thought I would buy call options (which would lever my position) but decided to just stick with an overall long position for now.
Added to DVN today, now 4K @25.25 avg price per share
Added to PSX today, now 4K @78.69 avg price per share
Opened ERX today, 4K at 17.05

Total investment : 20K. Down $570

Lets see how this plays out...... That's my new toy (car, motorcycle) mad money so here we go... !
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Old 02-02-2016, 07:17 PM   #931
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100 shares IP at 33.66.
Got tired of watching oil.
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Old 02-03-2016, 10:41 AM   #932
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100 shares IP at 33.66.
Got tired of watching oil.

Value Play ? Strong dividend? What was the attraction to IP.... I dont follow it at all.
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Old 02-03-2016, 10:44 AM   #933
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added 200 AMLP @ 9.95

I'll hold my "oil bet" at this level for now $22K across 8 stocks in my gambling account. Lets see what happens by mid-April.

, plus a ton of VXUS in my long term account which continues to languish... has heavy global oil exposure (Shell, Petron, etc)...
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Old 02-03-2016, 10:48 AM   #934
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added 200 AMLP @ 9.95

I'll hold my "oil bet" at this level for now $22K across 8 stocks in my gambling account. Lets see what happens by mid-April.

, plus a ton of VXUS in my long term account which continues to languish... has heavy global oil exposure (Shell, Petron, etc)...

Admit it Papa, you are doing this to just have a little fun, and profits/losses are immaterial....What is life without a little gambling in ones life!


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Old 02-03-2016, 12:35 PM   #935
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Yep. Mulligan. You are correct. It's the thrill of the chase. I took my "toy fund" money to see if I could parlay it

I look at it this way: I'll either be driving a new BMW or an old Ford Pinto as my next set of wheels. Either way, it gets me from A to B !

Cheers !
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Old 02-03-2016, 07:11 PM   #936
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Value Play ? Strong dividend? What was the attraction to IP.... I dont follow it at all.
I'm building a portfolio of dividend growth stocks. Had been watching IP for a while. It went past 5% yield and I wondered...then noticed it is -40% from yearly high.

I use FAST graphs to help me decide. For example, see the attached. Is the future really like that? I do not know, but am placing a bet on a company that promises to grow the dividend. We'll see.
Attached Images
File Type: png Capture.PNG (73.9 KB, 20 views)
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Old 02-04-2016, 10:19 AM   #937
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Good analysis. I concur on IP- looks interesting. Commodities and wood prices are down so input costs looks well contained. Also a cyclical and they are due for gains.

I just now I exited my oil. positions with a 2 day 5 % gain.

Freeport McMoran was up 20 percent today ... so I dumped it too.

Will assess in 2-3 days and see what happens.
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Old 02-05-2016, 08:32 AM   #938
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Good analysis. I concur on IP- looks interesting. Commodities and wood prices are down so input costs looks well contained. Also a cyclical and they are due for gains.

I just now I exited my oil. positions with a 2 day 5 % gain.

Freeport McMoran was up 20 percent today ... so I dumped it too.

Will assess in 2-3 days and see what happens.
I have FCX on energy watchlist. However, went with PBF, XOM, STO at various stages in the past 2 years. These are hold forever. Forever meaning a few years, then re-evaluate.
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Old 02-05-2016, 10:34 AM   #939
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I just exited a short position on TSLA, was getting nervous whether I would make any money or not. This is my trading account.


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Old 02-05-2016, 04:10 PM   #940
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This turned out to be a very timely buy. An announcement of a large insider purchase just a couple days after this buy and the stock has gone from $2.70 to $3.60. I am taking a bit of profit and leaving some on the table.

Looks like a timely sell too. At this rate it might be back to $2.70 soon.
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