LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[papadad111]

Looking to re-enter ERX and AMLP today for short term trade

ERX at 15 and 13
AMLP at 9 and 8.50

P.S. CHK down 40% today too.

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by kiki Looks like a timely sell too. At this rate it might be back to $2.70 soon.

Yes, thinking of reloading here soon. I am comfortable with it as long as they trade 50 million or so below cash on hand.

[LOL!]

I bought a chunk of VXF (extended market index, so mid/small cap US stocks) a moment ago. I might buy some more later today.

Bond funds are not supposed to go up 0.5% in one day, so sold shares of BND and bought VNQ (REIT index, down 4% today).

[Fermion]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fermion Yes, thinking of reloading here soon. I am comfortable with it as long as they trade 50 million or so below cash on hand.

Just bought back the 5000 shares I sold in the mid $3s for $2.79. Simply amazing. I know it is a risky biotech, but 170 million in cash and 120 million market cap with good results in current trials. Plenty of time on this one with no risk of bankruptcy in the next couple years. A lottery ticket with a lot of chances for a win. I am going to trade it though and will sell again in the mid $3s.

[papadad111]

What's the ticker on that one ?

[Fermion]

ECYT

[papadad111]

Thanks. Anyone watching Nordic American tankers. NAT. Heard a bit in power lunch and seemed credible. Chasing financials now to have a peek.

[LOL!]

Bought some large-cap US (VV) this morning on the little drop after the market open.

It is worrisome that stocks go up 2% intraday, but the gains do not stick and they fall back in the last couple hours of trading. I would've made a lot of money if I had sold at those times.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! I bought a chunk of VXF (extended market index, so mid/small cap US stocks) a moment ago. I might buy some more later today. Bond funds are not supposed to go up 0.5% in one day, so sold shares of BND and bought VNQ (REIT index, down 4% today).

OK, I sold the VXF at a small gain and also noticed that the BND is selling lower than I sold it at. VNQ is trading about 0.5% lower than recent purchase price, so I will keep it for now.

Also sold earlier purchased IVV at a small loss since it overlaps with the VV I just purchased which is up. Call it tax-loss harvesting if you like.

And just posting this will probably make the market go up another 1%-2% before the close this week.

I basically do not want to have my asset allocation so overweighted to equities over the long weekend, though if they do drop over the next couple of hours, I may change my mind.

Update: I'm not the greatest market timer, but if my selling earlier today made the market go up, then I am happy.

[LOL!]

What a great day in the market.

I made no transactions today, but I am totally bummed by the sales I made last Friday. One might say I sold several thousand dollars to soon. Sigh!

A positive is that equities closed at their highest values of the day and did not fade in the last hour.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! ... Update: I'm not the greatest market timer, but if my selling earlier today made the market go up, then I am happy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! I made no transactions today, but I am totally bummed by the sales I made last Friday. One might say I sold several thousand dollars to soon. Sigh!

Yes, the market can quickly turn one's mood from fear to greed and vice versa.

[papadad111]

I exited a couple positions as they crossed from negative to positive.

I had exited KMI. Made a small gain.

Today news is out that Buffett bought kinder Morgan in Q4. The stock is up 10 percent today. I exited too soon.

This rally feels fake. Or maybe the last gasp of the dying bull.

We may rise to 1925 -1950. But feels like we bumped along at 1820-1870 for a while and that's where we will stay.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by papadad111 I exited a couple positions as they crossed from negative to positive. [...] This rally feels fake. Or maybe the last gasp of the dying bull.

Or maybe we were the ones who capitulated this time.

The VV I purchased on 2/11 is up over 5% already.

Today I will start buying more VV in my taxable account and later selling IVV in my 401(k). The idea is to be doubled-up for a few hours while prices rise and maybe eek out a 0.5% 0.75% extra gain on this little bit of money.

[NW-Bound]

Early last Friday 2/12, I added a puny amount (4 figures) to my EM position as a lark. It's up 16% since then. I am still in the red on this position as I started buying way too soon. I am going to wait things out and will not be trading for a while.

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! ... and later selling IVV in my 401(k). The idea is to be doubled-up for a few hours while prices rise and maybe eek out a 0.5% 0.75% extra gain on this little bit of money.

OK, hit my trigger, so sold and got out. Asset Allocation is back to where it was early this morning.

[Fermion]

I sold back out of Endocyte (ECYT) 5000 shares sold at $3.22, purchased around $2.80.

I am still holding another 5000 shares for when they hit $100 a share

[LOL!]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! ... and bought VNQ (REIT index, down 4% today).

VNQ has gone up today while everything else has gone down. It has reached a reasonable point to sell it, so I sold it with a 3.7% gain.

[sengsational]

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOL! VNQ has gone up today while everything else has gone down. It has reached a reasonable point to sell it, so I sold it with a 3.7% gain.

I was dismayed the last time I looked because I'd sold some to get it back in the middle of the band during general rebalancing, then it shifted significantly towards the lower band . Glad to hear it's probably back up to the "do nothing" territory.

[papadad111]

I was holding equities in a deferred comp plan that is set to pay out March 1. I decided yesterday to roll out of equities and hold in cash for the next few weeks , at least lock in my taxes for a few weeks on the traunch that is set to pay out.

That move once taxes on the traunch get paid, will move my AA back to 90/10.

For gambling, I also exited my ERX position for a small 1K gain @19.15 and AMLP @8.75 for small 0.5K gain over the last 2 days after 30 cent dividend ... and will look to trade back in when they go down. This week is pretty much a bear rally.

I am looking longer term to shift more retirement funds into the small caps eg Russell 2500. It's down a lot and beaten up and with a 5 year horizon or longer it seems there is value to be had in the small caps at these prices. They will be first to rally post bear.

[papadad111]

ERX is down to mid 17's...open position at 17.45