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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter
Old 03-15-2016, 02:52 PM   #1021
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LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

Thanks to this thread, it prompted me to sell one investment that has done well for me but it's in taxable account. So I got the best price yesterday. Today I went and short VRX, I wished I hadn't been swayed by the hedge fund guys, I should have shorted when the stock was in the $60 plus range. But today the signal was much definite and I did short by buying puts and made 30%. I just wish this is not in my taxable account because I now have to pay tax on the gain. When I have more time, I will set up in my small pretax account like Roth or something. Back to working in my yard.


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Old 03-15-2016, 03:39 PM   #1022
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The transactions of the past 2 days turned out well for me. Everything I sold, closed lower in value and everything I bought closed higher in value. My portfolio was simplified a little bit and I have some cash to react to the FOMC meeting press release tomorrow.*

So I think I came out ahead of doing nothing. This gives me a little leeway to screw up something in the future, too.

No commissions and no taxes on these trades as well.

*If bond funds drop, I'll buy bonds. If equity funds drop, I'll buy equities.
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Old 03-16-2016, 11:11 AM   #1023
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Put in another trade, the trade is going my way but I want to make money and not just crumbs.


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Old 03-16-2016, 01:48 PM   #1024
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So I didn't say what I would do if both bonds AND equities went UP after the FOMC announcement. I sold some bond fund shares a moment ago.

VNQ (REIT) is up about 1% since I sold yesterday, so clearly I should have waited until today.

Overall, my goal is to shift some money from equities to bonds, but with everything going up today, I will just sit pat and wait for bond fund shares to drop back from their recent upticks.
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Old 03-17-2016, 08:46 AM   #1025
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I've been sidelined and not traded in a few weeks. Current AA is back to 85/15 with the 15 percent as cash not bonds.

About half of that cash position is in regular taxable account. The other half is in a deferred compensation account which is tax deferred but auto liquidates over the next 4 years in 4 equal tranches so the tax deferral is with a predefined time domain.

That account offers only 401K like mutual fund investments but I've read where it can be converted to a broker Acct to have access to many more securities . But no trading options ...

I'm In process of doing that and then to try to trade that account and parlay it w/o huge immediate tax consequence.

Either way I will pay tax on what ever comes out over the next 4 years as it liquidated, so this is more of a "delay the pain than avoid the pain" tax wise. Eventually over the next 4 years I'll pay tax on that money as W2 ordinary income.

Trying to get my head around a few oil and gas and commodity trades. Lots of the "value" has been recovered as market has recovered ... But still maybe some bargains.

Would have been nice to have GW pharma .....
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Old 03-17-2016, 02:22 PM   #1026
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Since many of my ETFs went ex-dividend on Tuesday, but payable date is next week, it is kind of hard to figure out gains. However, VNQ did not go ex-dividend* and it is up 5% in the past 5 days, though some things are up more than 4% in 2 days.

All those dividends to-be-paid will have missed out on the gains of this week.

I really like the upward momentum in everything, but I just must stop myself from getting too greedy. I will submit an order to exchange a small amount of VTIAX (international index) to VBTLX (US bond index) in a moment. This is simply a de-risking move and not a move to make lots of money. It also simplifies one account.

The portfolio is now well ahead of its benchmark, so I can coast for awhile by getting back to the same asset allocation as the benchmark. This will practically guarantee not losing any ground to the benchmark going forward.

*Vanguard REIT index will declare a dividend probably overnight on Thursday (today). And "declare" is just announcing when and what amount; it is not the same as going ex-dividend.
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Old 03-18-2016, 11:18 AM   #1027
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I just sold my trade on MNK, against my wish, I picked up crumbs. Oh well. The stock dropped 10% since I bought the puts but I made less than 5%. I wish I had kept my puts on Valeant.


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Old 03-18-2016, 11:42 AM   #1028
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Well, if you start with a bigger loaf, you might end up with crumbs, but they will be bigger crumbs and well worth it.

Since the markets have punched through the prices of the end of December, there seems to be more buyers nowadays. Maybe this is because of higher oil prices or maybe because the FOMC decided not to change the Fed funds rate. Or maybe because there is less uncertainty in who will be candidates in November.

In any event, it is interesting to me that there just seems to be more folks wanting to buy now that prices have recovered, than there were when everything was on sale. That just seems bass-ackwards to me.

I have some money from dividends to put to work, but I just can't seem to find anything on sale anymore. I will just have to hold my nose and buy some fixed income: AGG, BND, VBTLX, VCSH are all things that I am underweight in. Or maybe I should just go out and buy a new car?
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Old 03-18-2016, 12:39 PM   #1029
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The way I see nothing goes up in a straight line and nothing goes down in a straight line either. It maybe tax season, people has to contribute to IRA and such. Last year things tank after May.


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Old 03-19-2016, 09:10 PM   #1030
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I executed the trade this morning. 700 shares of SPY and 7 calls at 145 (not 135). Theoretical gain for the year will be 4.42%. I did this with Fixed Income part of my portfolio. The rest is in bonds and CDs.

If the market tanks to 1450 over the next year I think I would be rebalancing into stocks anyway, and the amount that I would rebalance and the amount of SPY are similar. I'm well aware this is yield chasing, but so far I cant see a downside, but I've been myopic before

The trade didnt go through at midpoint between bid and ask, I had to wait until the bid moved up (as the market went lower I think).

Just following up on this from last September. The calls that I sold got assigned on Friday. Total gain for the nearly 6 mos was about $2400 on an output of about $100k. So about annual return of about 4.8%. The gain on the SPY was about 1550 and the one dividend in December that I got paid was 880. I got assigned this Friday on the exact day of the SPY March dividend. I'm trying to remember these numbers but they're approx correct. The return was made better by the fact that the Vix was much higher last September when I opened the trade. So not bad for a fixed income return.


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Old 03-23-2016, 11:17 AM   #1031
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So, my March puts on a few volatile stocks that I bought 3 months ago expired worthless last week, and I pocketed a few $K. I still have 3 outstanding April puts, and they are getting threatened if the market slumps. The biotech I bought recently is getting its gain trimmed too. Darn!

I just wrote an out-of-money April covered call on the S&P, just trying to get a few hundred $ for RV gas money . Maybe in a month, I will regret not writing more calls when the market drops badly. I will try to remind myself that it will then be time to write more cash-covered puts.

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Just following up on this from last September. The calls that I sold got assigned on Friday. Total gain for the nearly 6 mos was about $2400 on an output of about $100k. So about annual return of about 4.8%. The gain on the SPY was about 1550 and the one dividend in December that I got paid was 880. I got assigned this Friday on the exact day of the SPY March dividend. I'm trying to remember these numbers but they're approx correct. The return was made better by the fact that the Vix was much higher last September when I opened the trade. So not bad for a fixed income return.
Wow, 6 months go by fast (and we are all that much older).

So, you made 4.8% annualized return with a relatively safe strategy that returns about 2X other fixed incomes. It works out as planned. Are you going to repeat this? The VIX is lower than it was 6 months ago, so I have not looked but perhaps the return is lower now.
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Old 03-23-2016, 09:14 PM   #1032
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So, my March puts on a few volatile stocks that I bought 3 months ago expired worthless last week, and I pocketed a few $K. I still have 3 outstanding April puts, and they are getting threatened if the market slumps. The biotech I bought recently is getting its gain trimmed too. Darn!

I just wrote an out-of-money April covered call on the S&P, just trying to get a few hundred $ for RV gas money . Maybe in a month, I will regret not writing more calls when the market drops badly. I will try to remind myself that it will then be time to write more cash-covered puts.



Wow, 6 months go by fast (and we are all that much older).

So, you made 4.8% annualized return with a relatively safe strategy that returns about 2X other fixed incomes. It works out as planned. Are you going to repeat this? The VIX is lower than it was 6 months ago, so I have not looked but perhaps the return is lower now.

I'm going to wait until the VIX is higher. I think the fat pitch is to wait until there's a correction with a high VIX (they always come together I guess) and then sell some bonds to execute the trade. But just a higher VIX might be fine too. So I think I'll wait a while.


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Old 03-23-2016, 09:17 PM   #1033
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So, my March puts on a few volatile stocks that I bought 3 months ago expired worthless last week, and I pocketed a few $K...
Meant to write "... that I sold...". I am getting senile.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:00 AM   #1034
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Meant to write "... that I sold...". I am getting senile.

God forbid.
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Old 03-29-2016, 12:36 PM   #1035
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I still remember most of the trig identities, and can still take derivative, do integration by parts, etc..., or with a bit of refresh can still do some differential equations, Laplace or Fourier transforms. But my writing has slipped some.

Back on market timing, I just bought a bit more biotech. This sector has been beaten down so bad, I cannot resist. Also, bought a bit more emerging market, but as I already have plenty, immediately wrote a covered call just slighly above current price. If it gets exercised, I make 10% in a month.

When the market is treading water like it has been, a bit of crumb is all I hope for.
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Old 03-29-2016, 01:18 PM   #1036
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I think it's good to trade in and out on some of these type of stocks.


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Old 03-29-2016, 01:49 PM   #1037
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Today is a nice strong day based on Yellen's comments. I think recent highs of March 21-22 will be tested today.

Is anybody selling into this rise?
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Old 03-29-2016, 02:14 PM   #1038
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No, but I'm short in one stock, I've been wanting to short this stock. Today the signal is much clearer. Let's hope I don't end up picking crumbs again.


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Old 03-29-2016, 02:35 PM   #1039
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I have an alert e-mailed to me whenever IJS is up more than 2.5% in one day. Today is the 2nd time this month that I have received this alert.

And oil is down today, yet things that usually drop when oil drops are up.

Momentum says things are going up. I don't think there are any press conferences tomorrow that might create a change in momentum.

Hmmm, I think I will set a good-for-the-day limit order to sell some US large-cap, but set the limit high enough that I don't expect the order to get filled. That way, I will feel like I did something without doing anything. But maybe a panicky buyer will pay my price near the market close?
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Old 03-29-2016, 02:38 PM   #1040
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Eh, don't badmouth crumbs. If you gather enough, can make a meal out of it. Got to eat like a bird.

I hold about 7% in bonds, and 30% in cash. Both have crummy (crumby? ) returns, and if I can squeeze some crumbs out of my short-term trades using some of that spare cash, I am happy.
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