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Old 05-01-2016, 11:20 AM   #1121
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NW, did your Gilead put expire worthless? You got lucky if so, Gilead is down some 12%.

I think it is very oversold here and just bought 500 shares at $88.70. They raised the divy too.
Thanks for reminding me. I am traveling and do not have fast and easy Web access. I just checked my account, and saw that my put option got exercised at the strike price of 88.50 while GILD closed at 88.21. I already got $3.20/sh on the put premium, so am still ahead on this deal (same as buying GILD at 85.30).

I never owned GILD before this. I will hold it a while.

PS. I sold the put on 3/15, when GILD was at 90.
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Old 05-01-2016, 02:59 PM   #1122
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Thanks for reminding me. I am traveling and do not have fast and easy Web access. I just checked my account, and saw that my put option got exercised at the strike price of 88.50 while GILD closed at 88.21. I already got $3.20/sh on the put premium, so am still ahead on this deal (same as buying GILD at 85.30).

I never owned GILD before this. I will hold it a while.

PS. I sold the put on 3/15, when GILD was at 90.
While these things never go the way I think they would, Gilead did affirm their 30 to 31B a year revenue, and they are making about $insane profit per year (PE 7 or something) so really, I am not sure how much lower than $88 it will go. It could just as well bounce back above $90 next week as go down.
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Old 05-02-2016, 11:10 AM   #1123
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The money I didn't lose by selling equities the past few days, I lost anyways by buying VNQ too soon.

There's only one solution to the problem: Double up on VNQ. So I will sell some bond ETF shares and buy more VNQ later today.

Update: Orders executed.
I sold the "double-upped" VNQ shares a moment ago for a 2% gain, but if I had done nothing back on 4/20, I would have had a gain of less than 1% anyways. The money was immediately used to buy shares of AGG (bond ETF).

I've kept the first lot of shares purchased on 4/20 since they now have a gain, too.
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Old 05-02-2016, 02:00 PM   #1124
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Sold energy ETF for minimum wage gain. Immediately it went down after I sold it.


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Old 05-02-2016, 02:40 PM   #1125
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^When are you going to tell us exactly when you buy these things and the ticker symbols?

I'm posting in near real-time, so folks can see that I sold that VNQ too soon today and missed out on another 0.5% gain.

In other news, my asset allocation is now exactly where I want it for awhile. I do not expect to post any trades for awhile even though I have to reinvest some month-end dividends when they arrive in a few days. They are too small to note in this thread.
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Old 05-02-2016, 02:55 PM   #1126
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^When are you going to tell us exactly when you buy these things and the ticker symbols?

I'm posting in near real-time, so folks can see that I sold that VNQ too soon today and missed out on another 0.5% gain.

In other news, my asset allocation is now exactly where I want it for awhile. I do not expect to post any trades for awhile even though I have to reinvest some month-end dividends when they arrive in a few days. They are too small to note in this thread.

I don't want to jinx my trade.


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Old 05-02-2016, 02:59 PM   #1127
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I love to jinx all my trades as that is what reality is all about.

Based on my experiences, at some point you should be posting about some of your losses every now and then.
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Old 05-02-2016, 03:05 PM   #1128
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I hold the losses, that's when I buy and hold. Right now it's VWO for a small loss that I incurred in my portfolio. I lost my chance to buy more when it went lower today. I set the price too low. So that's my game, ping ponging back and forth, I buy more if it drops, when it goes higher than when I bought, not substantial but reasonable, I sell them. If it goes lower than I buy again. I become a buy and hold when it's not worth my while to sell.
The rest of my money is invested in mutual funds that are not for trading.


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Old 05-02-2016, 04:25 PM   #1129
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I decided to stop having losses because gains are more exciting.
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Old 05-03-2016, 08:05 AM   #1130
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I started this thread years ago for several reasons:

1. To help people hone their market timing skills,
2. To show people they have behavioral biases and fears, and
3. To show good days when to rebalance one's portfolio as they happen, not after they happen.
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Old 05-03-2016, 09:26 AM   #1131
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I thought we are not supposed to market timing. To do so is a fool's game. Anyway I'm only a day or a few days trader. It has nothing to do with AA. Today is an ugly day, the stock I short went up and stock I own went down. But I'm glad I didn't hold on to energy ETF. I bought more vwo, if this stock pops today later, I will sell it, to reduce the pain of my buy and hold portion. If not, I'm a buy and hold category, lol. I notice this stock trends lower in the morning and goes higher later.


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Old 05-03-2016, 09:39 AM   #1132
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I do not think market timing is bad if it means you strive to be a contrarian and conquer fear and greed to buy low and sell high. I do not day trade because I am not good at it to make money.

The above said, today looks like a bad market day. It is a bit early to be sure, but it looks like my May/June covered calls are going to be worthless and I will pocket the premiums. The bad news is that the gains there are minuscule compared to the overall portfolio loss. Oh well, these covered calls are still better than nothing.

Here waiting for more pain in the market before I switch to the cash-secured put selling mode.
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Old 05-03-2016, 09:47 AM   #1133
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I started this thread years ago for several reasons:

1. To help people hone their market timing skills,
2. To show people they have behavioral biases and fears, and
3. To show good days when to rebalance one's portfolio as they happen, not after they happen.
I like the thread, it gives me ideas.
I think having a core bulk of your investments in something broad and holding it for a long time is fine.
But the exciting this is to take a very small amount of money, and put it into something you think will make a big pile of money.

Sure it's gambling, but countered with your own appraisal of various influences, so its not as much a gamble as a coin toss.
Plus if you are smart about it, you can limit your loss potential.

After all, nothing feels so good as to win.
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Old 05-03-2016, 09:59 AM   #1134
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Previously I made about 1.4K on some BRK.B leaps.

I decided to repeat this idea, but neglected to post here, so here is it is:
I bought a couple of deep in the money Leaps on BRK.B when it was at $130, mid February.
Really just a small "gamble" of $10,000

I am too chicken, conservative, careful to bet the farm, but 10K makes it interesting to watch.

So far my potential profit is roughly 2.2K .
I did try to sell them a month ago but was priced too high, which is good as I was too eager to capture a profit, when I can let them ride for another year.
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Old 05-03-2016, 10:02 AM   #1135
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Apparently people are writing CDS on Berkshire (Warren buffett mentioned it during the shareholder meeting).

Wish I could be on the selling side of that one, my broker doesn't have em.
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Old 05-03-2016, 11:26 AM   #1136
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I thought we are not supposed to market timing. To do so is a fool's game.
I think one should not do the bad kind of market timing. You know, day trading and losing money.

The good kind of market timing works pretty well. You know, buying low and selling high with patience. It might also be labelled "Buy, Hold, and Rebalance."

Anyways, I don't have a play account nor do I keep a separate pile of money for the trades in this thread. This thread keeps me honest with my market timing strategy. So far, so good. I'm doing 31% better this year than my benchmarks which translates into tens of thousands of dollars better and not just a few bucks.
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Old 05-03-2016, 11:42 AM   #1137
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It depends on your goal. My goal is to earn more than bonds fund and money market rate. And I never trade on large amount.
Edit to add, my trading has earned more than bnd, voo, Wellesley, Wellington and I just started this trading thing recently on a small amount. I need to have proven record for a least a year before I increase the amount I'm willing to trade.

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Old 05-03-2016, 02:58 PM   #1138
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^That makes sense to me. But I think on should remove emotions (as evidenced from "jinx my trade") and state what one buys and when and why. I think that helps one not get caught up in the emotions.

Then also state reasons for selling perhaps even ahead of time as in stating the trigger points for selling when one actually buys. That way, one will not get caught up in euphoria when thing go up as planned while still be able to sell when things do not go as planned.
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Old 05-03-2016, 03:03 PM   #1139
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I did jinx my trade today. It was not sold. I won't mention my trade again.


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Old 05-03-2016, 03:04 PM   #1140
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^That makes sense to me. But I think on should remove emotions (as evidenced from "jinx my trade") and state what one buys and when and why. I think that helps one not get caught up in the emotions.

Then also state reasons for selling perhaps even ahead of time as in stating the trigger points for selling when one actually buys. That way, one will not get caught up in euphoria when thing go up as planned while still be able to sell when things do not go as planned.
You must be kidding right? The market is full of manipulators. I don't have triggers point until I see the trigger points. Tough requirements, I won't make it.
I might stay off your thread forever.


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