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Old 05-28-2016, 08:42 AM   #1181
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I hope that July was a typo and June is what you meant.

As noted in many reports, the FOMC members (and non-members) are out in force giving speeches to anybody who will listen that a rate hike should not be unexpected. Thus, when it happens it will not be the big news of the week.

In the markets I think there will be a small bounce as always, but I don't know if the drop will occur first and a bounce back ... or if a bounce up will occur first and drop back.
It's not a typo. Futures expectations of a hike by July are quite a bit higher than for June. Either is imminent. http://socialize.morningstar.com/New...0.aspx#3743560
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Old 05-28-2016, 09:52 AM   #1182
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Since the June and September FOMC meetings have associated press conferences, but the July and November meetings do not, I agree with others that there will be no rate hike in July. There is no August meeting.

But yes, a probability of a rate hike by the end of the July meeting is reasonable high since that probability would include both the June and July meetings.
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Old 05-28-2016, 10:01 AM   #1183
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Since the June and September FOMC meetings have associated press conferences, but the July and November meetings do not, I agree with others that there will be no rate hike in July. There is no August meeting.

But yes, a probability of a rate hike by the end of the July meeting is reasonable high since that probability would include both the June and July meetings.


That may will be what happens. But Bullard remarked the other day no press conference was necessary to invoke the change. The first one was he said, because it was a directional change. Subsequent ones do not need to be. He also cited past history of committee doing this also. He is only one voice on committee and "not the boss" but he did throw that out there.


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Old 05-28-2016, 10:12 AM   #1184
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My personal view is that markets will seize up while waiting for this next hike, so that it will be better to get it over with sooner and allow more time to see the effect before the September meeting.
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Old 05-30-2016, 11:42 PM   #1185
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I've been out of the country for the past 2 weeks, missed you folks
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Old 06-01-2016, 04:23 PM   #1186
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Ok, just sold 6 covered calls on CAT to end August, for 1.06 ea with strike price 77.5
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Old 06-02-2016, 10:40 PM   #1187
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You can all thank me for the wonderful rise in the stock market, CAT is up today by
1.87%
I have noticed this feature, it often seemed whenever I sold a covered call, that the option increased in value due to a rise in the stock price. So whoever bought my call made money. This happens a lot, even when in the end it expires worthless.
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Old 06-03-2016, 07:15 AM   #1188
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Just opened an options position for aapl. Bought 5 X 2017 puts at strike 90 ...
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Old 06-03-2016, 08:43 AM   #1189
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With the jobs report news, bond ETFs have shot up 0.5%. Once again, bond funds do not normally move that much in a single day. I have to think about selling some BND shares today. I would not be surprised to see fade in the price gain later today.

A problem is what to do with the money?

OK, sold shares of BND.
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Old 06-03-2016, 10:19 AM   #1190
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It's kind of a strange day. US mid/small cap VXF is down 1%, while small emerging is up 1%, and bonds up 0.5%. I've sold bonds already, so I am thinking of buying VXF with the money and selling EWX and then waiting until next week to perhaps reverse the trades. This is a kind of negative short-term momentum idea.

Update: Bought VXF and it is up almost 0.4% already. Weird.
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Old 06-03-2016, 12:25 PM   #1191
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And again today CAT is up. 0.92%
Ok, next time I'm going to sell a single call, then wait for the pop and sell more :/
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Old 06-03-2016, 01:29 PM   #1192
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I have submitted limit orders to sell shares EWX (small-cap EM) and VSS (small-cap foreign) at prices higher than the current high prices of the day.

Volume on these is below the average volume. In particular EWX is about one-third the average daily volume. I find this unusual since DGS (another small-cap EM ETF) is having a regular volume day. I don't know what to make of this discrepancy in volume for EWX.

BND and AGG (bond ETFs) are also having low-volume days.

Update: EWX just sold. VXF still climbing.
Update: VSS just sold. I'll consider selling more towards the close if it keeps going up.
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Old 06-03-2016, 03:42 PM   #1193
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So my prediction that the price of BND would fade did not happen. Instead it closed at its high for the day up 0.63%. I captured most of the rise today and the part that I missed was more than made up by the gain in VXF.

Today was unusual to me since typically US stocks and foreign stocks are highly correlated. It is not often that there is a 2+% difference in the daily action. VXF was down more than 1% when I bought it while EWX closed up almost 1.6% and VSS closed up 1.2%. VTI (Total US) closed down -0.28% though it had traded almost 1% lower than yesterday's close earlier in the day.

I think that today's unusual (for me) moves will be undone next week. I have the cash to buy BND or AGG next week if they go down say 0.3% or more.
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Old 06-03-2016, 04:40 PM   #1194
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And again today CAT is up. 0.92%
Ok, next time I'm going to sell a single call, then wait for the pop and sell more :/
It finished the day up 1.93%

So annoying to have missed this, should have procrastinated. All will be ok unless it rises another 4%
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Old 06-06-2016, 02:23 PM   #1195
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Update: EWX just sold. VXF still climbing.
Update: VSS just sold. I'll consider selling more towards the close if it keeps going up.
So I've made money that I would not have made if I had done nothing last Friday, but I am antsy about where things stand, so I will try to sell VXF later today (gain is 1.65% so far for my new position) and buy back VSS. Even though I will be buying back VSS at a higher price than I sold it, the gain in VXF more than makes up for that.

What makes me antsy is that I looked up what VXF has done in the past month and it has risen more than anything else (something like 5.5%), so I'd rather own something else (like VSS).

BND has dropped, but not enough to make me buy it back yet.

Update: Sold VXF, but limit order for buying VSS was not executed.
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Old 06-06-2016, 10:01 PM   #1196
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Bought more AAPL puts. 90 strike
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Old 06-06-2016, 10:58 PM   #1197
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And CAT is up again 1.84%

It is getting pretty close to my strike price + premium value.
The only good news is I have more CATs to let out of the bag, so that is my plan tomorrow (which means of course the price will fall )
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Old 06-06-2016, 11:12 PM   #1198
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Bought more AAPL puts. 90 strike
Any desire to express why ?
I've considered buying appl at various times, but don't use their products so I'm curious.
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Old 06-07-2016, 08:36 AM   #1199
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And since I was stubborn not to buy VSS yesterday, it is up the most this morning.

Update: And now it is official: I am worse-off than if I had done nothing on Friday. I can only take some comfort in that the portfolio is increasing its lead over its benchmarks mostly because it has a higher weight to foreign and foreign is doing relatively better than domestic today.
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Old 06-07-2016, 11:34 AM   #1200
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Any desire to express why ?
I've considered buying appl at various times, but don't use their products so I'm curious.

I just think the innovation cycle for aapl has run its course for the time being. A leg down would drive those put options into the money. It's just a gamble in my mad money account.
Long dated 90 strike puts.
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