Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 06-08-2016, 11:11 AM   #1201
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 2,759
So like a broken record, so far today CAT is up 1.54%

My thinking on CAT is, it's not really doing well and oil downturn has put lots of equipment on the secondary market, plus commodity prices didn't come back up so mining has been suffering a lot.
This all means lots of equipment available, which makes selling new equipment difficult.

I think the big pop in CAT price has been dividend chasers, since Fed dashed hopes of rate increases again is when it started to really climb. Plus with oil going up people mistakenly think demand will rise, but really it will only slow down or prevent bankruptcies.

I think it will drop again, as it's earnings per share don't even match up to the dividend and have been on a decline for past couple of years.

I'll stop boring folks with my CAT saga until the option expiry time and we will see how it turned out.
__________________

__________________
Sunset is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-08-2016, 11:52 AM   #1202
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,491
If your shares get called, you can always sell puts to buy them back if the stock price drops. You could end up having the same shares back, plus the premium of both the covered calls and cash-secure puts in your pocket.

I love squeezing more money out of my shares this way. With the prospect of ho-hum market return, any little bit I can get is extra income. An ETF I wrote a covered call on is about to reach the strike price. This option will expire in July, and it may get exercised. I just sold a put to buy it back lower than the current price.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2016, 09:23 AM   #1203
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 16,491
Just sold some covered calls on a Chinese ETF, and also covered puts on the S&P. Both are out-of-the-money, so will see if they will expire worthless in a month.

Net cash gained is only $900, but I have been like a bird picking up a little crumb here and there.

At least, that covers my airfare to Europe, plus a bit of change. Will work on the wife's ticket next.

PS. It's not that I need these little gains to travel, but I like to think of the rewards for my trading activity this way. Instant gratification, ya know?
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2016, 11:17 AM   #1204
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
It looks like I might get a "do over" today with equity prices about the same as they were on Monday 6/6. I might have to submit some orders, but which ones?
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-09-2016, 12:20 PM   #1205
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
I bought some international ETFs: VEU, VEA, DGS. The main reasons were that

1. They were down about 1.3% to 1.5% from yesterday.

2. The prices were at about the lows for Monday, so I could get Monday's lowest prices today.

3. I could buy round-lots in a Roth IRA. I like lots of trailing zeroes in my positions for some reason.

4. I needed international to replace the VSS I sold in the last week and VSS had not dropped as much today as VEU and VEA, so I didn't want to buy it.

OK, most of the "reasons" are not anything important, but they were what I was thinking when I submitted the orders.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2016, 07:23 AM   #1206
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
It looks like I should have waited at least one more day to buy things.

Update: So yesterday's buys were an example of worst market timing ever. In order to get out of this hole, I will have to double up on my buys at some point, but not today.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-10-2016, 02:59 PM   #1207
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
OK, I lied. I ended up buying VEU today at the close.

I had reviewed my situation and discovered that my trades since 6/3 combined with the drops of today actually put me ahead of where I would have been if I had not made the trades since 6/3. That is, I would have lost even more money than I actually did if I had not made the trades on 6/3 and later.

So I fooled myself into thinking I knew what I was doing and broke a rule not to buy on a bad Friday. Wish me luck!
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2016, 11:49 AM   #1208
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
More time to catch a falling knife today, so I bought more VEU a moment ago.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2016, 04:30 PM   #1209
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,504
LOL,

When you say you bought “some” and then buy “more” what is that in relation to your total portfolio size? if “some” = "portfolio value times x % of portfolio" is “more” greater or lesser than “some”? Are you doing this on a strict valuation percentages or is it a random percentage based on the decline in a given sector and your level of spunkiness on a given day?
__________________
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-13-2016, 07:01 PM   #1210
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
It varies, but I'm usually working with 2% to 4% of total portfolio value. For any given trade, the percentage is probably random as I am not going on strict percentages, but more by what is available in a given account.

I am intentionally vague, but so far this year, I have buys that total more than $3.6 million and sells that total more than $3.6 million.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-14-2016, 10:24 AM   #1211
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
And my recent purchases are getting killed. VEA and VEU are down 6.8% and 6.4% since the first June purchase.

At least the June dividends will get invested at lower prices.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter
Old 06-14-2016, 11:14 AM   #1212
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

Sold my open long dated 90 strike on AAPL at a 10% gain.

Everything else is headed down back toward the trading range that we've been in ...for the past 2 years.
__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 08:22 AM   #1213
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
And my recent purchases are getting killed. VEA and VEU are down 6.8% and 6.4% since the first June purchase.
Today is going to be a spectacular day. I don't think I will get back to my purchase prices, but I think I will still be feeling good when the market closes.

Some things like VSS were already up more than 2% from their lows last week.

Today is also the Payable Date for most of the Vanguard ETFs I own, so I will be be making some decisions. I am now underweighted in bonds, so I should probably be buying some BND or AGG if they drop. I am overweighted in foreign, so I may need to start selling some if VEU or VEA go up enough.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-20-2016, 10:56 AM   #1214
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
So I did buy more AGG this morning.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 01:41 PM   #1215
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
I've been trying to decide if my trades since the beginning of June have done my portfolio any good. I conclude that I was just a few days early, but I still did better than not doing the trades.

Bond funds have returned to about the place where I sold them and even though I have lost a little bit of money from yesterday's buy of AGG (early again!), the VEU and VEA that I bought earlier in the month have turned nicely positive.

VEU and VEA paid dividends which have to be included in this month's returns (Current prices reflect the price drop from paying the dividends).

Of course, Brexit could kill off all the gains and more.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-21-2016, 01:53 PM   #1216
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
One more thing, I've noticed that VSS is kind of lagging what I think it should be doing. VSS is a small-cap foreign index fund that includes both developed and emerging markets stocks. I think it should track what large-cap foreign stocks do and what small-cap emerging markets stocks do. That is, the daily movement of VSS should not be too different than the daily movement of VEU and DGS.

But look at today's current changes:
1.33% VEU
1.22% DGS
0.63% VSS

So VSS lags by 0.6% to 0.7%. I think VSS will "catch up" or the others (VEU, DGS) will "lag down" over the next day or so to get things more in sync.

Update: DGS did go ex-dividend yesterday. VEU and VSS had payable dates yesterday.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2016, 03:46 PM   #1217
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
Today was the spectacular day for VEU, VEA, VSS, and DGS that I was expecting hoping for the other day. Right now, I am glad that I got June's dividends all reinvested in the past week or so.

Portfolio value reached a high for 2016 ... even higher than on June 8.

I don't know the results of the Brexit vote yet, so there is still a chance that tomorrow will not be nice.
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2016, 10:46 PM   #1218
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,754
Futures look pretty negative for tomorrow with both FTSE and DAX down 8%, so that's "not nice."
__________________
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2016, 11:02 PM   #1219
Recycles dryer sheets
Niuatoputapu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 57
Watching the Bloomberg Hong Kong reporters report the events of the evening has been most entertaining. It will be an interesting day in European and America markets.
__________________
ER'd 6/5/2015 at age 58, and DW targets ER in 6/2019
Niuatoputapu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2016, 11:27 PM   #1220
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,504
Japan Finance Minister said nervous moves in FX markets will be met by double secret probation by the central bank of Japan.
__________________

__________________
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (1 members and 1 guests)
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Market Timing Strategy Earl E Retyre FIRE and Money 141 10-28-2011 03:09 PM
Money Market funds in potential danger. clifp FIRE and Money 22 07-06-2011 07:10 AM
When it comes to photos, timing makes the shot REWahoo Other topics 0 07-01-2011 02:19 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:20 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.