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Old 06-27-2016, 03:28 PM   #1241
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I will just say it is my expectation at some point worry will hit and you will see a 200 point down S&P500 day, at that point you will be near the short term bottom.
I hope you are right about that, Running_Man, but I get the sense that we could see global markets just sort of trend gradually downward for some time to come, with no real huge down days, but no big recoveries either. The reason I say that is that there is a whole lot of confusion out there as to how this Brexit will play out, what it means for global economy, etc, etc.. I don't think any of this will be known for some time to come (many months, at least), so it's hard to say right now what type of thing would trigger a market upswing (short of a decision by the UK to ignore the referendum results, and stay in the EU, which I think is unlikely). I do think that some sectors of some markets could do well (utilities, for one), but overall I suspect we are in for rather prolonged period of market instability. Of course, I may be all wrong.......
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Old 06-27-2016, 03:34 PM   #1242
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CNBC is reviewing your timing strategy right now basically, checking all 49 days with 3% down or more in the last 10 years and how the market does so well n the following 5 days, though they are picking individual stocks
That's close to, but not quite what my market timing strategy is. I will guess that if they only check 3% down or more that is not going to work as there could be several big down days like that close together and buying too soon will get your portfolio killed.
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Old 06-27-2016, 03:36 PM   #1243
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My expectation is similar to what the Schwab Brexit piece noted: August 2011 saw some big down days that eventually led to an October intermediate bottom. So I think it will take some time to work things out.

I think Running_Man's "capitulation" scenario could well play out.
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Old 06-27-2016, 05:24 PM   #1244
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That just made me really nervous.


Im still waiting for him to recommend what earned me almost 10% last year and over 6% this year.... Investment grade preferred stocks.. I am starting to turn blue waiting... But if he does, it may be time to sell!


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Old 06-27-2016, 06:26 PM   #1245
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Well I made a few decent trades. Switched Precious Metals Funds (+7.29%) into International Equities which were down 6.66% for a total swing just shy of 14%.

(Finally, Finally, FINALLY!!! starting to see some returns on that Gold after ~5 years of holding and DCA'ing down)
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Old 06-28-2016, 02:25 PM   #1246
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With VEA up about 2.6% to 2.8% from yesterday's purchase price, I am submitting orders to sell shares.

It looks like a little bit of fading in price in the last 30 minutes, but maybe that's a head fake. If I don't get my limit prices, then I'll just see what happens tomorrow.

Update: Orders filled for a 2.75% gain. And the dip around 15:30 ET was just a head fake. It appears that VEA (and other things) will end up close to the highs for the day.
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Old 06-29-2016, 01:52 PM   #1247
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With markets up another 2% today, I will be unwinding more of the recent purchases. I intend to sell things similar to the things recently purchased. For instance, I will not sell VTIAX (total international), but will sell shares of VEA instead. I will not sell VSIAX (small-cap value), but will sell VXF (mid/small-cap index) instead.

After these sells, I will still have some more unwinding to do, but that won't happen today. Update later.

And the update: Sold the shares I intended to sell and bought some AGG with some of the proceeds. I even had the AGG buy order filled at 15:59:55.
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Old 06-30-2016, 12:22 PM   #1248
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More unwinding today by selling VTI, VEA, and VSS.
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Old 06-30-2016, 09:21 PM   #1249
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My wife's 401k rollover will not get into the new IRA account until next week. So, I missed out on the opportunity of this stock sale.

I liquidated the account to cash on last Wednesday before the big pre-Brexit rally, so missed out on that too. I think today her 401k mutual funds recover to where I sold them at.

I worried about being out of the market during this 401k rollover, so put all the cash at my disposal into the market to make up for it. However, this cash amounted to only 1/6 of that 401k balance. But, but, but I did deploy them into leveraged ETFs, so that helps offset some. However, that means I have been out of ammo, and can only watch the market without being able to do anything.

I still have lots of cash in I-bonds, but it takes 3 days even if I want to liquidate it. And going into margin is risky because I cannot meet possible margin call with the cash in that 401k.

Oh well, the market cannot go on forever from here. I will get some chances later.
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Old 07-01-2016, 07:27 AM   #1250
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All's well that ends well.

June was a fun month. Portfolio high was on June 8. Almost reached it again on June 23. As we know, things dumped and recovered. So end of June had the portfolio higher than at the end of May and gained on benchmarks during the month despite a significant weight to international funds.

And I was totally wrong about the FOMC raising of rates. Intermediate-term bond funds were up about 2% in June. With the market recovery here in the past few days, is a rate hike back on the table for July?
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Old 07-07-2016, 02:18 PM   #1251
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Just logged into my wife's freshly minted IRA to see that the rollover check has been deposited. Now, I have money to go stock shopping. It's 30% of total portfolio.

What do I buy, and when do I buy it? Hey, that sounds familiar to a phrase I heard before.
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Old 07-07-2016, 02:45 PM   #1252
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Well, when you find something decent to buy please let us know.

I have a ton of cash from selling last week and have not found anything encouraging to make me want to spend that money just yet. Normally, it would go into bond funds pretty quickly, but I just cannot force myself to buy even bond ETFs after their recent run-up.
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Old 07-08-2016, 09:32 AM   #1253
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It turns out that her account shows a balance but the fund has not cleared, so I cannot place any order.

I like to stay quite diversified. So, I will reload the account by playing it by ear and buy first the sector on sale du jour. Some sectors have been beaten down so bad that I may not bother waiting for favorable short-term fluctuations.
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Old 07-12-2016, 09:05 AM   #1254
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Well, when you find something decent to buy please let us know.

I have a ton of cash from selling last week and have not found anything encouraging to make me want to spend that money just yet. Normally, it would go into bond funds pretty quickly, but I just cannot force myself to buy even bond ETFs after their recent run-up.
Bond funds have dropped more than 0.5% from their highs of last week, so I am using my cash to buy AGG (total bond index). That usually means they will go down further.

Since the quoted post, markets have gone up a few percent and made my portfolio overweighted in equities again. The bad news is that I don't want to sell anything and I don't want to buy anything and I don't want to sit on my hands. I guess I'll just go fishing.
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Old 07-12-2016, 01:48 PM   #1255
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OK, I decided to make a pure speculative market timing move to improve my portfolio a little bit. I think that small-cap foreign will retrace some of its gains in the past few days, so I am going to sell some shares and buy them back in a short time from now in a different account. The portfolio improvement is changing from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA, so one can argue whether that is an improvement or not.

I have submitted a limit order to sell VSS shares. Volume is non-existent right now, so this trade may not execute.

Update: Someone else's trades executed at my limit price, but not mine, so no executions today. Portfolio will be at all-time high (even higher than May 21, 2015) today.
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Old 07-12-2016, 02:22 PM   #1256
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Check again today, and my wife's rollover check still has not cleared. What the heck is that? I recall another poster having a similar long delay with her rollover.

It's not that I am anxious to buy something. And if I buy something, it will be spread out anyway.

With the market surge, I am glad that I compensated for the money out of the market by using some cash on hand to goose the portfolio with high-beta stocks. It works to reduce the pain of sitting on cash the last few trading days.

For example, on Fri 7/08/2015, the S&P went up 1.5%, and my portfolio went up 1.04%. On yesterday, Monday 7/11/2015, the S&P went up 0.03%, I was up 0.37%. It's OK for someone who's been maintaining an AA of 60% stock.

Right now, as of this writing, the S&P is up 0.72%, my stocks are up 1.37%. The entire portfolio is up only 0.62% currently, due to all that cash and also MFs that will not report for a few more hours.

I am still missing out a bit compared to having my wife's 401k invested in its usual AA. However, goosing the rest to compensate does help. Of course, had the market tanked, I would be kicking myself for not letting all that cash be in cash.

Greed. Fear. Then Greed. Then Fear. It's the basic thing that any investor must recognize.
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Old 07-14-2016, 05:18 AM   #1257
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I think that small-cap foreign will retrace some of its gains in the past few days, so I am going to sell some shares and buy them back in a short time from now in a different account. [...]
So I did not sell any VSS yet, but I see that I can try to accomplish the same idea another way: Buy first, then sell.

Once again, I want to "move" VSS from a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA that has some cash in it. I will use the cash in the Roth IRA to buy VSS, but the timing is what I am working on.

I can sell VSS in the tIRA and after VSS drops, then I can buy VSS in the Roth.
--or--
I can buy VSS in th Roth and after VSS goes up, then I call sell VSS in the tIRA.

The risk management is slightly different in the two scenarios. In the second one, I would be doubled-up on VSS while waiting. In the first one I would out of VSS while waiting.

Or I could just make the sell and buy nearly simultaneously and not try to tweak another extra out of deal.

Today looks to be hinting that it is going to be decent up day.
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Old 07-14-2016, 09:45 AM   #1258
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I see now that VSS just does not have enough trading going on to make it easy to get executions with favorable spreads, so I ditched the idea of selling/buying VSS.

So instead, I see now that it has been 31 days since the previous purchase of VEU in another account, so I sold VEU and will buy VEU in the Roth IRA instead. These two trades fulfill the same purpose that I wanted to achieve with VSS, but the spread of VEU is 1 cent and trading is active.

Limit orders submitted to sell higher and buy lower. I'll report back later to see if trades executed.

Update: Orders did execute, so sold VEU a few cents higher than I repurchased VEU.
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Old 07-15-2016, 02:11 PM   #1259
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Well, the last trades didn't quite work out so well. I should have waited at least a day after selling in order to re-buy in the other account.

Also, bonds continue their march downwards, so I should have waited to buy them as well.
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Old 07-15-2016, 04:25 PM   #1260
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I tried again to sell off my BRK options, since they are deep in the money ones, there is not a lot of action and it's hard to figure out the price they should trade at.

Some sites have no update and show old prices.

So I tried one at $67.50 and the other at $66
These are Jan 19, 2018 options at $85
My rationale on price was (145.75 stock price − 85 strike price) = 60.75 + (time value) = ??
So I valued time of 1.4 years at $6.75 and $5.25 , the time value of 2018 option at $145 is $14.xx

Not sure if its the thin trading, or just the time value that I have wrong. Worse case is I keep them and exercise them in 2018.

Thoughts ??
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