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Old 01-30-2018, 07:02 AM   #1561
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It looks like I'm going to lose a lot of money today.
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Old 01-30-2018, 09:50 AM   #1562
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Who won't? The only question is how much.

The market is down 1% at this moment.
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Old 01-30-2018, 07:39 PM   #1563
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Not a good day, but not as bad as I expected. 551

So I sold more VCSH (short-term corp bond index) in the morning, but did not buy anything with it. I now have lots of cash to do something.

Also did a Roth conversion today. I exchanged VBTLX (Total Bond Index) into VTSAX (Total US Stock Market Index). The reason is that the traditional IRA only has Total Bond in it and I don't like to have bond funds in Roth IRAs which grow tax-free. I intend to use a tax-deferred 401(k) account to sell VTI (Total US stock Market) and buy a Total US Bond index fund whenever VTI goes up from here. The idea is to have the same relative amounts of Total US Stock and Total US Bond when I'm all done, but in different accounts. Since I cannot predict the future, I don't know when that will be.
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Old 02-01-2018, 02:58 PM   #1564
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Sold the VTI mentioned in the previous post earlier before lunch when it was up higher than yesterday's close.

The market seems a little volatile lately and that is not necessarily good. Lucky I enjoy losing money because that's what's happening.
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Old 02-05-2018, 02:40 PM   #1565
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Sold some BND (total US bond) and bought some VSS (small-cap foreign).

I intend to look for some more things to buy in the next 20 minutes and report back.

And the update: Sold all my BIV (interm-term bonds) and bought MTUM (US large-cap momemtum)

This is classic "catching a falling knife."

If VSS goes up a few percent in the next few days, I will sell it. I'm not sure what I am going to do with MTUM as I am well underwater on the previous purchase. I will probably sell if it goes up a few percent. If either of these go down, then I am just going to hold for awhile.
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Old 02-06-2018, 08:42 AM   #1566
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Well, the newly purchased shares survived the market open and the newly sold BND and BIV shares have actually dropped a few cents, so all is calm and good.

I found some more bond fund shares in another account that I may rebalance into equities later today, but I will wait for the early birds to get away from their computers first.
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Old 02-06-2018, 02:28 PM   #1567
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I submitted a limit order to sell some VSS since it is trading at a nice profit. I don't expect it to execute, but I am going to take the dog for walk and won't be back until after the market closes.

MTUM is up even more, but I will wait on making a decision on it.

Update after close: My VSS order did not execute even though other orders at and above my limit price did execute after I submitted my order. Oh well, maybe that will mean more profits tomorrow.
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Old 02-08-2018, 11:35 AM   #1568
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I missed my chance to sell recent purchases at a nice gain on Wednesday morning. I guess I just have to go down with the ship ... or buy more.
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Old 02-08-2018, 12:55 PM   #1569
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I have been very tempted to buy more, but need to remind myself that comes Feb 16 I have put options expiring. They are now all in-the-money. I have enough out to force my stock AA to 70%.

Need to reserve dry power, and sit on my hand for a while.
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:49 AM   #1570
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Decided to keep buying equities this morning. Sold more VCSH (short-term corporate bond fund) and bought some Total US Stock Market shares.
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@NW-Bound, do you think exercising put options on Feb 16 will create some buying?
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Old 02-09-2018, 08:58 AM   #1571
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I do not know about how it affects the market, meaning the effect from other option holders out there.

Yes, the share prices are now way below the strike prices of my cash-covered puts. This means I already lost money, compared to not doing these options. I always mark to market, and the losses are already accounted for.

So, unless the market rises significantly by Feb 16 expiry date, which is highly unlikely now, I will be the proud owner of these shares. This will drive up my stock AA to 70% or higher.

PS. Funny thing about loss/gain accounting of the options is that as the option time value dies out as the expiry approaches, my losses on these put options are reduced with time, compared to what I suffer now. It only gets better from here.
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Old 02-09-2018, 03:07 PM   #1572
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Hey thanks. I guess with the options expiring at the end of next week that it will be an interesting Friday the 16th.

At least today, the thing I bought closed at a higher price than I paid. There was some doubt whether that was going to happen. That might be enough to make me feel good all weekend.
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Old 02-12-2018, 02:34 PM   #1573
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The portfolio is way overweighted to equities because of all the recent buying. I mean 7% more to equities than my usual "nirvana asset allocation."

Since the things bought on Friday have been up over 2% just today, I am going to try to sell them. I have submitted limit orders to sell that are few cents higher than the highs so far for the day. I may have to modify those orders if I believe they won't sell, but I might also just let them expire. 25 minutes to go. I'm hoping this little fade here is just a head fake. Updates later.
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Update: And the fade is not a head fake. I'm letting the orders expire and will try again tomorrow.
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Old 02-12-2018, 03:20 PM   #1574
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No buying nor selling. No attempt here either.

In this rout, I bought in 3 instances, spaced every other day. The 1st one is still in the red. The 2nd is roughly breaking even. The 3rd one is green. Overall, the total made me a bit of money. Not much and it may be gone tomorrow.
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Old 02-12-2018, 04:25 PM   #1575
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Is this the official real trades made thread? I can go months and months without making a trade. I've done eight or ten of them already this year.
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Old 02-12-2018, 04:49 PM   #1576
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Originally Posted by copyright1997reloaded View Post
Is this the official real trades made thread? I can go months and months without making a trade. I've done eight or ten of them already this year.
It is close enough, but we want real trades that we can possibly use, too. That is, before you submit the orders and then the results in near real-time. I just like to know that everyone else is losing money just like I am. Thanks!

I am posting here so that when I write my "How I made $10 million in the Stock Market" book that I can point to this thread for haters who write "Sure you made those trades. You have no proof."
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:45 AM   #1577
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DGS (small-cap emerging markets) is up today while everything else is down. Doesn't make sense to me unless the tape was painted at the end of yesterday. So I sold some shares. I have no plans for the cash right now, but will update if I buy something.

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Update: DGS continues to climb, so I put in a limit order to sell more. I also used the cash from the previous sell to buy shares of VEA (foreign developed large-cap). I picked VEA to buy simply because it was trading down the mostest at the point that the money was burning a hole in my settlement account.

My intention with this is to sell something equivalent before the market closes today, either VEA or VEU in another account.
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Old 02-13-2018, 01:29 PM   #1578
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Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
Decided to keep buying equities this morning. Sold more VCSH (short-term corporate bond fund) and bought some Total US Stock Market shares.
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@NW-Bound, do you think exercising put options on Feb 16 will create some buying?
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
I do not know about how it affects the market, meaning the effect from other option holders out there.

Yes, the share prices are now way below the strike prices of my cash-covered puts. This means I already lost money, compared to not doing these options. I always mark to market, and the losses are already accounted for.

So, unless the market rises significantly by Feb 16 expiry date, which is highly unlikely now, I will be the proud owner of these shares. This will drive up my stock AA to 70% or higher...
I found some info to shed some light on this.

With a market swift decline like what just happened, many put options are already in-the-money like the ones I sold. So, the Feb options expiring this Friday 16th should spur a lot of buying, one can reason.

It's not so. People who are short on put options like myself can capitulate much earlier than that expiry date, and they already buy back the options to close them out. I usually hold till the options are assigned. These are stocks that I do not mind holding, because they are the same stocks that I sold earlier at the same or a higher price. I may be in the minority. The option time value goes to zero at expiry, and that reduces my losses on the option trade. With the premium, I am still ahead compared to never sell the stock AND the put.

See: https://www.thebalance.com/options-e...thless-4056646.
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:44 PM   #1579
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Thanks for that. I suppose we will get to see what happens in a few days no matter what.

Tomorrow is some announcement about inflation I hear. I've lost less money by selling some of my bond funds shares last week.

And I could not resist selling more DGS in the past few minutes since it has continued to climb and used the money to buy more VEA which has still not gone up much. I have a limit order to sell VEU (large-cap foreign) which I will modify to a market order and sell before the close. And no fade in the last few minutes of the day either.

Net result of the day is that I have unwound some of the increased allocation to equities made last week for about a 2.5% gain since Friday.
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Old 02-14-2018, 12:10 PM   #1580
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So who says they can predict the stock market? I don't.

Look at what happened today: Futures up 0.5+% before the inflation announcement, then the market opens about 0.5% down after the announcement. The first 30 minutes look dicey.

But now at lunchtime, everything but bonds and REITs are up very nicely. The things I sold yesterday continued to go up and the things I bought went up about the same. I could have made my trades this morning or now at lunchtime and it would've all been the same.

Now I have to decide if it is time to buy back bond funds yet. Anybody want to give me some advice?
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