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Old 03-26-2018, 07:02 PM   #1661
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Of course you do not have to tell me.

If I sell, then being able to buy back at a lower price, that's good enough. Can't really hit exact tops and bottoms. Individual stocks move +-5% during the day anyway, and you have to be an super clairvoyant day trader to catch that.

Also, never 100% stock or cash. I would vary my stock AA +-10%. That's enough. Used to be +-15% or more.

By the way, today is a good day. Individual stocks up 3.78%. MFs up 1.47%. Cash 0%.

Overall up 2.61% today. Slowly making up for recent loss. Cash is down to 28.8%. Thought about buying more, but got scared. Scared can be good, I think.
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Old 03-27-2018, 02:37 PM   #1662
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Sold several call options today after market open.

Market rose, then crashed. The above options brought me a couple of $K, as a consolation prize for losing several tens of $K today. Better than nothin', as I keep telling myself.

Such is the temperament of the market.
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Old 03-27-2018, 02:50 PM   #1663
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Hmmm, I didn't expect such a drop the day after I sold some shares.

But since MTUM dropped more than 3.3% since yesterday's close, I bought some shares that I had sold yesterday.
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Old 03-27-2018, 03:13 PM   #1664
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I wanted to add a little note about Market Timing here. I read all the time that one shouldn't do market timing because one has to make two great decisions: (1) When to Get In and (2) When to Get Out. Or sometimes it might be stated as (1) When to Get Out and (2) When to Get Back In.

I have no issue with the fact that one has to make 2 decisions, but I will state that one doesn't have to make great decisions to make money. If one makes good enough decisions or even more good decisions than bad decisions, then one might be able to do better than buy-and-hold.
True, maybe... But I'm too busy having fun to bother trying to bump gains by maybe a fraction of a percentage point
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Old 03-27-2018, 03:46 PM   #1665
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True, maybe... But I'm too busy having fun to bother trying to bump gains by maybe a fraction of a percentage point
Me, too.

Most of this can be automated because one's broker will send an alert to one's smart phone. Also, one does not need to act on every possible opportunity. If they fall in one's lap though ....

OTOH, I suppose that one could have a hobby that keeps them busy having fun and that hobby could be setting up investment alerts to go to their smart phone.
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Old 04-02-2018, 11:25 AM   #1666
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Hmmm, I didn't expect such a drop the day after I sold some shares.

But since MTUM dropped more than 3.3% since yesterday's close, I bought some shares that I had sold yesterday.
I'm losing quite a bit of money from this most recent purchase, but I may buy more equities later today if things get worse. Since my international ETFs are not down as much as domestic ETFs, I expect my portfolio to increase its lead over my benchmarks which have somewhat less invested in international than my portfolio. 325

Some of you must be buying today, right?
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Old 04-02-2018, 12:20 PM   #1667
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The put options with April 20 expiry that I sold a couple of weeks ago are all deep, deep in-the-money. In effect, I already "owned" these shares, and that's a 6-figure number when the options get exercised.

I still have a lot of cash, but need to reserve some dry powder. I will try to sit on my hands today. Very tempted to buy more.
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Old 04-02-2018, 02:48 PM   #1668
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OK. Just threw a low 4-figure sum into my favorite tech stocks: semiconductors.

It's so that I can claim I bought at a low, if the market rebounds tomorrow. If not, well, I can always consider it a community service, helping out desperate sellers.

PS. It was a low 5-figure sum, not 4.
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Old 04-02-2018, 03:02 PM   #1669
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Earlier this afternoon: Sold the VCSH (short-term corp bond index) bought most recently and used the money to buy some VTI (Total US stock) which was down about 3% at the time.

My intention is to sell some Total Stock Market index shares in the next day or so after they go back up. If they don't go up, then I will very likely sell more fixed income and buy more Total Stock Market.

Update: VTI is up almost $1 a share since purchase earlier today. And icing on the cake: VCSH closed 4 cents lower than I sold it at.
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Old 04-02-2018, 03:28 PM   #1670
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I also got a bit of gain on the purchase today, when the market rebounded a bit at close.

The dollar amount of the gain is $103.5 to be exact. I do not daytrade, and intend to hold my stocks for a gain of several percents.

The above gain of course does not make a dent in the loss today, which is close to one year of living expenses. Yes, tech stocks got hammered today.

And tomorrow, when the market shreds another 2%, I may regret the stock buy today.
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Old 04-02-2018, 06:39 PM   #1671
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Seems like we are oversold here. But, the market seems "tired" to me. Maybe it is just the fear/pessimism sinking in to my thinking, but I'm glad I had sold more stuff last Thursday.
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Old 04-03-2018, 10:21 AM   #1672
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My intention is to sell some Total Stock Market index shares in the next day or so after they go back up. If they don't go up, then I will very likely sell more fixed income and buy more Total Stock Market.
Sold a moment ago shares of total stock market index in another account, no commission, no taxes. I still want to sell some more ... maybe later today.
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Old 04-03-2018, 02:23 PM   #1673
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Update: Sold more shares of Total Stock Market Index ETF in two different accounts. A very nice pop happened here in the last hour today. This was a nice 4-figure one day gain which I'll take any day.

And in case you are wondering, I did not buy at the low yesterday and I did not sell at the high today.

Of course, I'm down tens of thousands of dollars since last Friday.
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Old 04-03-2018, 02:48 PM   #1674
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Earlier today, I plopped down another $10K to buy shares of an electronic distributor. It's hard not to buy stocks when everything is down.

Not selling anything yet, and will not start until the market is up a few percent from here. If it does not go up, I will tough it out.
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Old 04-04-2018, 09:10 AM   #1675
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My wife made her 2018 Roth IRA contribution yesterday, so I had her buy shares of MTUM this morning just to see what happens with them. 834
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Old 04-04-2018, 03:02 PM   #1676
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I wasn't expecting a 2.5+% gain in MTUM in a few hours. Nice!
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Old 04-05-2018, 02:49 PM   #1677
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31 Had to rebalance a bit out of equities today after the 4% run-up since Monday.

Sold some VTI (Total Stock Market) and bought VCSH (short-term corporate bond).
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Old 04-07-2018, 03:20 PM   #1678
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428 My wife's company paid the hefty 2017 profit sharing payment into the 401(k) on Friday, so all that went to buy the S&P500 index fund.

So while VFIAX has a YTD return of -2.11%, my wife's return is -0.88% YTD. Every little bit counts.
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Old 04-08-2018, 08:18 AM   #1679
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My market timing is simple. I have core positions in AAPL, V and a few others. I listen to the talking heads on CNBC and when they say the market is frothy, I start looking at the Covered call premiums. I carry it out 8-12 months depending on where stock is and usually pick up 2-3%. Been doing that for 5 years in traditional iras and Rothís. I think I only had it called away once. Itís like getting a special dividend that I immediately reinvest in something else.
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Old 04-12-2018, 08:18 PM   #1680
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I was reviewing what is going on with my fixed income assets. Back on February 18, I posted:

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I was considering my fixed income assets which are composed of Total US Bond, short-term corporate bond, a 3% stable value fund, and cash. I have decided that I am going to sell most of my Total US Bond later this week in the hopes that it goes down another 0.5% to 1% over the next few months.
And since Feb 18th, the Total US Bond Index has not dropped really at all. VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond) is actually up about 0.39% since then. But the things I bought such as BIL (1-3 month Treasuries), FLRN (ultra short floating rate), and Vanguard Prime Money Market are all up about the same (0.23% to 0.26%), so it really didn't matter what I sold and what I bought, though VBTLX did the best by a smidgeon and a T-bill has done the worst by a smidgeon.

Basically, I should've just done nothing about my bond funds back on February 18. If I look at the total return of my fixed income assets, I am doing about 0.5% YTD better overall than Total US Bond Market Index fund, but that's because of the shorter duration investments owned since the beginning of the year and not because of any market timing that I've attempted.

I've got no crystal ball for the next few months, so I intend to just stay on this course for a little while with regards to fixed income. However, if equities take a dump, I will sell BIL and buy some equity ETFs.
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