LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[pb4uski]

I'm quite surprised that my AA is so close to target given that I rebalanced just before year end 2014. Equities are 59.7% vs 60% target. Fixed income is 35.2% vs 34% target. Cash is 5.1% vs 6% target.

Cash is lower due to living expense withdrawals YTD so at this time of year it would be expected to be below target and equities and bonds would be expected to be above target. However, even adjusting for the drift expected from YTD living expense withdrawals balances are quite close to target. If I adjust for withdrawals equities are 59.7% vs 60.6% target, fixed income is 34.8% vs 34.3% target and cash is 5.1% vs 5.0% target.

Some amounts may not add due to rounding.

 

[NW-Bound]

Now appears to be the best time since December 2014 to put new money into the market. SP500 is now negative for the year...

Should I not wait for the best time since Oct 2014? That's a better bargain.

 

[Fermion]

It is getting close to time to wade in and buy a bit. I don't have as much cash set aside as NW but we are selling our house this year and it is paid off, so essentially I do have a large portion coming available soon.

I have about 150k now that is not in the market and would be a buyer when Netflix is $90 (that would signal that the current euphoria with next decade PE is over). I wouldn't buy Netflix at that point but I would buy the cheap stuff that got mixed in with the decline, like Disney, Merck, Gilead, Exxon, Apple.

 

[RAE]

In my opinion, the Fed has been propping up this market for years, with QE1, QE2, etc.. I don't think it is a coincidence that the S&P 500 has been basically flat since the last QE ended in October 2014. I see very little upside potential for this market in the near-term, and I think we have a lot further to fall. The huge drop in commodity prices (especially oil) and the problems China is having only add to the current volatile situation, IMO. If I had some spare cash that I wanted to put into the market, I would wait a while and see how this plays out before jumping in. I may be all wrong, but it will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months or more.

I'm going to watch this one from the sidelines, for now anyway.

 

[Fermion]

Another play might be to start selling SPY cash secured puts at sub $200 levels. At least it would give you some spending money and establish a buy-in point for the future crash.

$190 Jan 2016 puts are getting $6 or more.

$6,000 payment for selling 10 of those which is a greater than 6% annualized return on your investment.

Buying in at $190 wouldn't be a horrible thing either.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am currently at 57% stock, 6% bond. That leaves 37% cash, and rising! The Dow just drops 300 points as I wrote. Fun time!

I had cleared out much of the more volatile stocks, such as EM, material, and energy stocks. It may be a while until a good time to get them again. It's China that drives the demand for much of the natural resources, and they spent all their money on ghost cities already. Countries that export raw material like Australia, Canada, Brazil have been feeling the impact for some time now.

 

[pb4uski]

Just a bump in the road to me, not a meltdown that one might expect reading the headlines. As of yesterday I'm down ~4% in total since the 12 month high of my portfolio back in mid-May after adding back monthly withdrawals for living expenses.

 

[Fermion]

Just a bump in the road to me, not a meltdown that one might expect reading the headlines. As of yesterday I'm down ~4% in total since the 12 month high of my portfolio back in mid-May after adding back monthly withdrawals for living expenses.

4% though is a brand new Tesla with the crazy mode thing option.

 

[Mulligan]

Just a bump in the road to me, not a meltdown that one might expect reading the headlines. As of yesterday I'm down ~4% in total since the 12 month high of my portfolio back in mid-May after adding back monthly withdrawals for living expenses.

This is what everyone should be thinking. The market has been so calm for so long its easy to get fidgety when it suddenly drops a few percent. Of course that is easy for me to say only having about 25% of my money in VTSAX and the rest in utility preferreds. They are doing now what they always pretty much do....nothing.


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[hesperus]

Busy morning. I like to use these periods to buy in to continue to get closer to my asset allocation goals. Financial & tech sectors looking beaten up. Putting cash to work, but with a suspicious eye that this can go lower. We've been breaking through some long standing resistance thresholds now.

After this I'm going for a hike in the mountains

 

[pb4uski]

4% though is a brand new Tesla with the crazy mode thing option.

Perhaps, but I expect the total to wiggle around some in the natural course of things... it has wiggled up a lot since I retired and is now just giving back some of those gains.... no big deal.

 

[NW-Bound]

The S&P is down a mere 6.5% right now from its recent high. Not in correction territory yet. So, party on!

But I am keeping my powder dry and staying alert.

PS. The only equity making money for me the last few days is a Biotech Bear ETF, bouncing 33% off its recent all time low. Not even biotech and healthcare stand up to the onslaught. It's about time. Heh heh heh...

 

[Fermion]

The S&P is down a mere 6.5% right now from its recent high. Not in correction territory yet. So, party on!

But I am keeping my powder dry and staying alert.

PS. The only equity making money for me the last few days is a Biotech Bear ETF, bouncing 33% off its recent all time low. Not even biotech and healthcare stand up to the onslaught. It's about time. Heh heh heh...

Is there a Dotcom bear ETF? With Netflix off some 15% in a couple of days, and Amazon plus Google well off their highs, that would be a nice ETF to hold.

 

[MRG]

Is there a Dotcom bear ETF? With Netflix off some 15% in a couple of days, and Amazon plus Google well off their highs, that would be a nice ETF to hold.

QID?
Double shorts the QQQ. More of a trade vehicle.

 

[Senator]

I just rely on the past 130 years of history. I buy every month, no matter what. My dividends get re-invested.

If I cannot rely on the market for the long term, the world is in trouble. In that case, I have guns and bullets.

 

[LOL!]

Back from vacation and I see some activity in this thread. Today I have sold some VCSH (short-term corporate bond index) in order to raise cash for some short-term in/out trades.

I will place a limit order for EWX (small-cap emerging markets with about 52% of assets in China/Taiwan/HongKong) and see what happens. If it executes, then I will be looking to sell next week.

 

[NW-Bound]

I have had a couple of limit orders out for some ETFs, with prices that looked like they would never hit when I set them 2 weeks ago. Then, this morning when I made the posts above, I lowered them some more, just for the hell of it.

Went with my wife for a grocery errand, came back and found myself proud owners of these. Darn!

DJ down more than 500 points now. Aren't we having fun yet?

 

[LOL!]

Update: Bought EWX when it dropped more in last few minutes of trading day.

Also was able to sell BND and buy VTI in last minute or so. This will also be a short-term move as I will sell VTI next week for any minor gain if possible.

So I guess I am hoping for a dead-cat bounce next week.

Good luck everybody!

 

[Mulligan]

I just rely on the past 130 years of history. I buy every month, no matter what. My dividends get re-invested.



If I cannot rely on the market for the long term, the world is in trouble. In that case, I have guns and bullets.

With my one mutual fund this is what I do. And this is the reason I have it in the mutual fund and not etf. Who knows how many times I would have tried to sell today, and then problems would begin...sell low, buy high; rinse and repeat.


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[redduck]

...

If I cannot rely on the market for the long term, the world is in trouble. In that case, I have guns and bullets.

Does this mean you're going to rob a 7-11 or that you are going to shoot yourself?

 

[NW-Bound]

Redduck, didn't you see another thread where he posted about just buying 10 Glocks?

Me hoping he's not going on a rampage.

 

[redduck]

No, I must have missed it. Might it have been posted in the "kindle cover recommendation" thread?

 

[aja8888]

Redduck, didn't you see another thread where he posted about just buying 10 Glocks?

Me hoping he's not going on a rampage.

Maybe he's going to trade guns for gold?

 

[NW-Bound]

No, I must have missed it. Might it have been posted in the "kindle cover recommendation" thread?

It was in the "Toy" thread!

Maybe he's going to trade guns for gold?

No. I think it is lead for gold.

Update: Bought EWX when it dropped more in last few minutes of trading day.

Also was able to sell BND and buy VTI in last minute or so. This will also be a short-term move as I will sell VTI next week for any minor gain if possible.

So I guess I am hoping for a dead-cat bounce next week.

Good luck everybody!

EWX down 31% from all time high set back 11 months ago. Down -3.8% today. Definitely a good place to put a bet on a dead-cat bounce.

As stated earlier, I myself got my limit order hit inadvertently on an ETF which shall remain nameless. It dropped -9% today, and my order hit in the last 1/2 hour of trading.

I cannot remember the last time I played any game or slot machine. Who needs LV when he plays with "real" money on Wall St? Heh heh heh...

PS. I usually set my orders below what I think the prices would go. It was more a way to remind myself to watch them. When I thought the price was good enough, I would switch to market order.

 

[Fermion]

I cannot remember the last time I played any game or slot machine. Who needs LV when he plays with "real" money on Wall St? Heh heh heh...

I used to like casino table games but option trading makes putting $100 on a craps line seem so boring. In the comfort of your own home, sitting on the sofa in your underwear, you can legally make a bet that 10 minutes later is worth nothing or 5 times what you bet. The added bonus is deducting your losses is MUCH easier.

Now if I could just get someone in a skimpy outfit to bring me free drinks...