LOL!'s Market Timing Newsletter

[NW-Bound]

... Update: I'm not the greatest market timer, but if my selling earlier today made the market go up, then I am happy.

I made no transactions today, but I am totally bummed by the sales I made last Friday. One might say I sold several thousand dollars to soon. Sigh!

Yes, the market can quickly turn one's mood from fear to greed and vice versa.

 

[papadad111]

I exited a couple positions as they crossed from negative to positive.

I had exited KMI. Made a small gain.

Today news is out that Buffett bought kinder Morgan in Q4. The stock is up 10 percent today. I exited too soon.

This rally feels fake. Or maybe the last gasp of the dying bull.

We may rise to 1925 -1950. But feels like we bumped along at 1820-1870 for a while and that's where we will stay.

 

[LOL!]

I exited a couple positions as they crossed from negative to positive.
[...]
This rally feels fake. Or maybe the last gasp of the dying bull.

Or maybe we were the ones who capitulated this time.

The VV I purchased on 2/11 is up over 5% already.

Today I will start buying more VV in my taxable account and later selling IVV in my 401(k). The idea is to be doubled-up for a few hours while prices rise and maybe eek out a [-]0.5%[/-] 0.75% extra gain on this little bit of money.

 

[NW-Bound]

Early last Friday 2/12, I added a puny amount (4 figures) to my EM position as a lark. It's up 16% since then. I am still in the red on this position as I started buying way too soon. I am going to wait things out and will not be trading for a while.

 

[LOL!]

... and later selling IVV in my 401(k). The idea is to be doubled-up for a few hours while prices rise and maybe eek out a [-]0.5%[/-] 0.75% extra gain on this little bit of money.

OK, hit my trigger, so sold and got out. Asset Allocation is back to where it was early this morning.

 

[Fermion]

I sold back out of Endocyte (ECYT) 5000 shares sold at $3.22, purchased around $2.80.

I am still holding another 5000 shares for when they hit $100 a share

 

[LOL!]

... and bought VNQ (REIT index, down 4% today).

VNQ has gone up today while everything else has gone down. It has reached a reasonable point to sell it, so I sold it with a 3.7% gain.

 

[sengsational]

VNQ has gone up today while everything else has gone down. It has reached a reasonable point to sell it, so I sold it with a 3.7% gain.

I was dismayed the last time I looked because I'd sold some to get it back in the middle of the band during general rebalancing, then it shifted significantly towards the lower band . Glad to hear it's probably back up to the "do nothing" territory.

 

[papadad111]

I was holding equities in a deferred comp plan that is set to pay out March 1. I decided yesterday to roll out of equities and hold in cash for the next few weeks , at least lock in my taxes for a few weeks on the traunch that is set to pay out.

That move once taxes on the traunch get paid, will move my AA back to 90/10.

For gambling, I also exited my ERX position for a small 1K gain @19.15 and AMLP @8.75 for small 0.5K gain over the last 2 days after 30 cent dividend ... and will look to trade back in when they go down. This week is pretty much a bear rally.

I am looking longer term to shift more retirement funds into the small caps eg Russell 2500. It's down a lot and beaten up and with a 5 year horizon or longer it seems there is value to be had in the small caps at these prices. They will be first to rally post bear.

 

[papadad111]

ERX is down to mid 17's...open position at 17.45

 

[LOL!]

VNQ has gone up today while everything else has gone down. It has reached a reasonable point to sell it, so I sold it with a 3.7% gain.

And VNQ is up another 2% since I sold it. I sure feel like I "capitulated" back there on the 12th.

I need bond funds to drop a little bit more here before I buy back those shares.

 

[LOL!]

Used cash from the 2/17 sale of IVV to buy AGG (bonds) just after the open the morning, so got a little 0.3% boost so far. (Anybody who is keeping track should note that I should've just bought right away on 2/17 for a lower price than I paid today.)

Also bought some VV on its dip this morning. It had traded down from there, so I am in the hole. My intention is to sell IVV before the end of the day if it trades relatively higher than my VV purchase price. This moves some large-cap in the 401(k) (IVV) into a taxable account (VV).

If IVV does not trade higher, then I will have to decide what to do.

Update: With 40 minutes to go, a valiant effort to go up in price has been dashed. I will delay selling for today.

 

[Fermion]

Market is getting choppy again. I bought a little back on Endocyte (ECYT) but probably will watch it fall another 10% and buy the entire amount back I sold. Hard to call that one because of the low volume. It is still trading far below cash value. $20 bills for $17.

Gilead got attractive again so I bought in 500 shares at $87 today. Target sell price is $91 which I hope to meet by the end of Feb. edit (March)

 

[LOL!]

It appears I missed an opportunity this morning to take advantage of the afternoon upward move in the stock markets. Oh, well, [successful] market timing is hard.

 

[Fermion]

Gilead got attractive again so I bought in 500 shares at $87 today. Target sell price is $91 which I hope to meet by the end of Feb. edit (March)

Edit: Maybe Feb after all.

Gotta love this market. One day moves greater than our yearly SWR.

 

[LOL!]

I was able to sell the IVV that I wanted to sell yesterday at above the price that I was aiming for.

I must say that I did not feel good about this morning's drop though, so I consider that I got lucky this afternoon.

I also want to mention that I have been setting price alerts at my brokers, so when something goes up or down to a level that I want to take a look at things, I get a message on my smartphone. I like this because I can be completely oblivious doing other things and don't have to pay attention. Even if I get an alert, it does not mean that I have to take action. It might mean that I walk the dog faster though.

 

[NW-Bound]

My stocks were up 0.75% in mid-morning, beating the S&P at 0.3% then.

Went out on a grocery run with my wife.

Came back, and my stocks are now down -0.06%, still beating the S&P at -0.81%. Berkshire Hathaway helps today, after the good earning release.

 

[Fedup]

I missed the opportunity to short VRX this morning. It was -$5 when I was thinking of buying puts and then chickened out, it closed down -$14 at the end.


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[LOL!]

The overall portfolio performance has been above my benchmarks for the past few days and if foreign funds outperform US funds today, then the lead over benchmarks will increase. If it gets too far above the benchmarks, that means I should be selling equities. I haven't decided a number yet, but I don't want to be too greedy.

I'm thinking that the uncertainties in the presidential election are going away and this is helpful to the stock market.

 

[dixonge]

I still can't decide if this is a spoof thread or not...

Am I missing something?

 

[NW-Bound]

My posts are real. Not all of us are Bogleheads. I am not one. I am not a day trader though (would not mind being one if I know how to make money doing that!)

Anyway, on last Thursday 2/25, I bought a small amount (4 figure) of a Chinese ETF as a lark. Up 9% as I post this. I have not bought Chinese ETF directly for short-term trading in a while, though I always have quite a bit of more diversified EM ETFs.

 

[Fedup]

These are trades in our trading account. The real account like IRA and 401K are following boggle forum.


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[Mulligan]

My posts are real. Not all of us are Bogleheads. I am not one. I am not a day trader though (would not mind being one if I know how to make money doing that!)

Anyway, on last Thursday 2/25, I bought a small amount (4 figure) of a Chinese ETF as a lark. Up 9% as I post this. I have not bought Chinese ETF directly for short-term trading in a while, though I always have quite a bit of more diversified EM ETFs.

I would so much love to be a day trader also. It would be fun! The closest I have ever did it was past 3 weeks flipping in and out of Bunge 500 shares at a time, selling above $51 and buying in $40s. Have my trade basis down to around $42. Just re bought the other day around $49. Have patted myself on my back for my "day trading" acumen and have called the media to formally announce my retirement. I going out on top a winner.


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[NW-Bound]

Anybody can be a day trader, as it takes only a few grand. Being a successful one is tougher.

So, I do "month" trades or "year" trades. My portfolio turnover is way lower than Wellesley 59%/year.

 

[Mulligan]

Anybody can be a day trader, as it takes only a few grand. Being a successful one is tougher.

So, I do "month" trades or "year" trades. My portfolio turnover is way lower than Wellesley 59%/year.

I know, that is why I have sworn it off.... I got bored and tried it once thinking it would bounce around after a poor earnings announcement. I have no temperament for such endeavors. I eventually would become a serial buy high sell lower day trader.


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