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Looking for unleveraged Bear Market ETF's or Mutual funds
Old 01-05-2009, 01:21 PM   #1
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Looking for unleveraged Bear Market ETF's or Mutual funds

I have been looking through yahoo's etf screener recently to see which funds had the best performance in the last few months. Not surprisingly nearly every fund was an Ultrashort or short fund.

Does anyone know if any other etf's which could provide for an upside in a market when it is down.

I looked at BND -Vanguard total Bond Market which i like, but
isn't there JUST ONE, mutual fund, ETF, or stock which thrives in adversity?

Someone should start a bankruptcy ETF.


PS.

I did find TLT - ishares 20 yr Treasury
and EDV - Vanguard Extended Duration Tres... which had more than respectable returns of +50% & +30% in 2008.

Does anyone think treasuries be the way to go for the next crash?
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Old 01-05-2009, 02:27 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fatman22 View Post

I looked at BND -Vanguard total Bond Market which i like, but
isn't there JUST ONE, mutual fund, ETF, or stock which thrives in adversity?

Someone should start a bankruptcy ETF.


PS.

I did find TLT - ishares 20 yr Treasury
and EDV - Vanguard Extended Duration Tres... which had more than respectable returns of +50% & +30% in 2008.

Does anyone think treasuries be the way to go for the next crash?
BND is probably a reasonable investment since they own a lot of corporate bonds. Personally I wouldn't invest money in US treasuries. The upside potential is very low since you can't have negative interest rates. Coupled with the possibility of inflation coming back in a big way, makes them very unattractive from a risk/reward ratio. For short-term money Vanguard Money Market or even your mattress are better places. Long-term, I like the stock market but anything else is better IMO.

For the next crash, sure Treasury will do well, the trick is to figure out when that will occur.
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Old 01-05-2009, 02:44 PM   #3
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The one Bear market fund I have used in the past is BEARX. It's a short/long fund, did pretty well during this downturn (+27% in 2008) and the previous one (+63% in 2002). But what I like about it is that in good times it sometimes can avoid getting killed like the rest of the bear funds (it was actually up in 2005/2006/2007 thanks to a healthy stake in gold) so it allows a bit of give in your timing. Still, I don't hold it permanently, I move in and out of it depending on market conditions and I think that's how best to use bear market funds.
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Old 01-05-2009, 08:59 PM   #4
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Beware chasing recent performance. That's what it sounds like you're trying to do and it's a recipe for disappointment and failure. Of course if you're convinced that the market is going down another 30% or more and you want to make that bet, have at it. You may be right but the risk/reward ratio is poor IMO.
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Old 01-06-2009, 10:00 AM   #5
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I like this because I can find what and where I want to put my pennies!

ETF Ticker Symbol Guide
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Old 01-15-2009, 02:56 PM   #6
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Try Morningstar.com. Here's a list of MF's, they may have ETF's somewhere as well:

Morningstar.com - Fund Returns
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Old 01-15-2009, 05:49 PM   #7
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If you are a bear, why not just short VTI or SPY?
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