Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Loving the up and up of markets these days
Old 02-15-2017, 01:47 PM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 255
Loving the up and up of markets these days

Man its been a very nice market for sometime now and I like it a lot. I'm not sure what is feeding it and driving it so nicely. What is your take on the strength of the market these days?
__________________

__________________
street is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 02-15-2017, 01:51 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17,422
Corporate earnings dropped from 2015 to 2016. The outlook for corporate earnings has improved since it bottoming out in mid 2016. The improvement started late 2016.

Once the stocks take off, buying begets more buying. In other words, good old greed.
__________________

__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 02:37 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DrRoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 1,145
Quote:
Corporate earnings dropped from 2015 to 2016. The outlook for corporate earnings has improved since it bottoming out in mid 2016. The improvement started late 2016.

Once the stocks take off, buying begets more buying. In other words, good old greed.
Yes, that, plus the economy is actually improving some at present, and investors perceive that the new administration is going to be more business friendly.
__________________
"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
DrRoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 02:39 PM   #4
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 22,082
We definitely need to keep politics out of the discussion, please.
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 02:53 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
ownyourfuture's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 331
Close to historically low interest rates doesn't hurt either.
IOW: The only game in town
__________________
"No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast"
ownyourfuture is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 02:54 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17,422
Business cycles happen without the help of politics.

Read this to see that business earnings picked up even prior to the election: Better Days: Earnings Growth Picks Up Sharply in 2017.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 03:43 PM   #7
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Encinitas
Posts: 43
The U.S. dollar is still the most stable and reliable home for international investment. Our economy is quite good compared to the rest of the world and our stock market has significantly outperformed the international markets in recent years. For those reasons, I overwhelmingly stick with domestic ETFs and other U.S. investments.

Having said that, my feeling is that prospects are very mixed - earnings growth is not stellar, "free" money is going away, and our domestic market is not the bulwark of consumption it used to be. A lot of corporate earnings comes from offshore, so we are vulnerable to the global economy like everyone else. I find the current affairs in China and Europe to be worrisome and the new norms of market volatility excessive. And lastly, while the [transitional] energy sector takes a powder, relatively meagre U.S. Corporate profits are being boosted by industries like technology and health care that are also notoriously fickle. Huge financial industry profits don't necessarily make me feel good either.

Up cycles are usually followed by down cycles, so I'm not getting too excited about this run. Just when I start to get excited I'm making real money is usually when I get killed. I think there will be a big correction sometime later this year and I'm protecting my profits with a bunch of stop-loss orders that I review and adjust regularly.
__________________
Starsky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 03:46 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17,422
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsky View Post
... I think there will be a big correction sometime later this year and I'm protecting my profits with a bunch of stop-loss orders that I review and adjust regularly.
That's what we all think, but react differently.

Some do nothing. Some rebalance. Some do stop orders. I write out-of-the-money covered calls.

PS. I used to do trailing stop orders. But then, I got some luck with covered calls that did not get exercised, so have been doing that. Should think of doing trailing stops again.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 03:54 PM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
jollystomper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 966
I'm loving it but not taking it for granted. I've done the calculation on the impact of a 20% correction from the current levels to my portfolio, and it still keeps me above my FI level. So I'm cautiously happy.
__________________
Current target FIRE date: June 2017 or Megacorp layoff, whichever comes first
jollystomper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 03:57 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
ownyourfuture's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 331
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsky View Post
earnings growth is not stellar
And for some individual companies, if you take away stock buy-backs, earnings are actually down.
__________________
"No beast so fierce but knows some touch of pity, but I know none, therefore am no beast"
ownyourfuture is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 04:05 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17,422
If earnings per share are up after the buy-back, that means the shares are worth more, and I don't think that is bad.

If the earnings per share are still down, now, that's something else.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 04:27 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 16,846
Quote:
Originally Posted by Starsky View Post
... I'm protecting my profits with a bunch of stop-loss orders that I review and adjust regularly.
I'm a 'never say never' kind of guy, but I would never use a stop loss order.

You can get taken out on a wild swing, like the flash-crash. Just make a note, and sell low if you want to violate the 'buy low, sell high' philosophy.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 04:57 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17,422
I would use only trailing-stop-limit orders. They may not get me out at all if the market drops right through the limit, but that would be the same as not doing anything.

And I would use it only on stocks that I feel that they are topping out.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 05:26 PM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: St. Paul
Posts: 864
Besides rebalancing once a year my investing strategy is: 1) look everyday when the markets are on an upward streak; 2) don't look on all other occasions.
I've been looking lately!!
__________________
Marita40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 06:19 PM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 255
Thanks for responding and I'm glad no political issue was posted. Interesting replies to what is driving these times and I appreciate all your knowledge in financing.
__________________
street is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 06:24 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 17,422
Somewhere, I read that institutional investors are not buying much, but it is individual investors who are now piling in. Also, money starts coming out from fixed income to go to equities. Buy, buy, buy!

If I find it again, will post the link here.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 06:54 PM   #17
Administrator
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 36,095
Quote:
Originally Posted by street View Post
Man its been a very nice market for sometime now and I like it a lot. I'm not sure what is feeding it and driving it so nicely. What is your take on the strength of the market these days?
I love it!!

Honestly I don't think anybody actually has the slightest clue as to why the market does what it does. Look at the financial pages! Their predictions are worse than a Magic 8 ball. But who cares; we are on a roller coaster having the time of our lives and we know how to make money when the market is down as well as when it is up. Meanwhile I sure love looking at my numbers.



Of course I am taking advantage of the bull market to prepare for the next bear. I am gradually reducing my bare bones monthly expenses a little here, a little there. And, I am taking care of big irregular expenses that need to be taken care of, rather than putting them off.

This responsibility (to prepare for the next bear) doesn't dampen my enthusiasm or happiness with how my portfolio is doing these days. This is so cool!
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities.
- - H. Melville, 1851.

W2R is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 06:56 PM   #18
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 732
It is nice to make almost as much in the first month, doing NOTHING, as I made in my highest income years!

Why the market is up? No idea. More buyers than sellers?
__________________
If you live to a hundred, you've got it made. Very few people die past that age. George Burns
gcgang is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 07:26 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
RobbieB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Central CA
Posts: 1,717
Yeah Baby!

Now making more dough sittin on my tookas that I ever did working.

Making more dough than I'm spending and I'm trying to spend more every day.

Gotta Blow More Dough -
__________________
Retired at 59 in 2014. Should have done it sooner but I worried too much.
RobbieB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-15-2017, 09:30 PM   #20
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Encinitas
Posts: 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
I'm a 'never say never' kind of guy, but I would never use a stop loss order.

You can get taken out on a wild swing, like the flash-crash. Just make a note, and sell low if you want to violate the 'buy low, sell high' philosophy.

-ERD50
Everyone is different. I don't obsess over my stocks and ETFs on a daily basis. I prefer to buy and hold, but I'm uncomfortable with the current economic climate and think it's somewhat a house of cards. Since 2009, Corporations have been cutting expenses to the bone to make their numbers [and line their pockets] and there's not a lot of fat left to cut to keep EBIT high - certainly not on the wage side. And low wages don't bode well for consumer demand and discretionary spending - especially as interest rates start to climb.

My security blanket are open limit orders, 12.5% off my current price which keeps me in the black for this cycle. Strictly in case of emergency and not an amount likely to happen on a short swing. I am not super active with my funds and I prefer having an automated emergency backup plan, than finding out with a three hour time difference on the West Coast that the markets have gone into the toilet. I was on an 18-hour flight to Malaysia when it happened in '09 and watched the TV monitors helplessly in the KL airport as the world economy collapsed. Maybe next time I'll be on a cruise ship...

Since I'm not an insider, i'd rather be out comfortably and live to play another day. When it happens I can always get back in when I'm ready. I admit it is crude, but it's strictly for asset protection, since I don't trust Wall Street and think they will be screwing us again soon. If everything goes south and later turns out super, then I shouldn't have anything to worry about. If not, at least I'll have cash to invest in the wreckage. [That's the reason why 70% of my portfolio is in rental real estate.] We'll see how it works out...

Edit: Looked into institutional investment levels and found this fascinating article... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...errified-asset
__________________

__________________
Starsky is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
62, eight days retired, loving it. RobertFrost Hi, I am... 14 07-17-2011 10:37 AM
new to site and retirement and loving it Fish Hi, I am... 4 02-09-2008 01:05 PM
Where can you live "on the cheap" these days. modhatter FIRE and Money 7 12-09-2006 08:16 AM
I like my bonds these days Rich_by_the_Bay FIRE and Money 42 08-03-2006 05:13 PM
One of these days. . . Eagle43 Other topics 2 09-07-2005 09:43 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 08:51 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.