Regarding gold... here's one thing I've always wondered about. It seems that you either buy gold as a store of value or to hedge against world catastrophe. If you're in the first camp, it seems that speculation could hurt you if you're buying at the high (ala the last gold run). Since some of the pricing seems emotional and subject to speculation flux, just like anything else I guess, how do you know when it's a good value store?
If you're in the second camp, I assume you'd never actually buy shares; you'd want the hard stuff in a safe in your basement. After all, if there's an economic collapse, are you really going to trust the company to honor delivery. And, even if they do, how would they get it to you? Lastly, given that gold hasn't always been a currency, one might want to hedge with owning salt, stones, and seashells too.
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I've heard lots of people say that oil is being driven up by speculation. I've heard lots of people say it's not.
So, how does speculation work? I really don't understand it, honestly.
Say I, as a speculator, buy a futures contract for a thousand barrels of sweet for October at $145 a barrel. I have no plans to take physical delivery. October gets here and the spot price is $160. I sell my futures at $155 and make a nice profit. That means someone is taking delivery, right? Either to send into the supply or to hoard. Since the spot price seems fairly close to futures, does that mean anything?
I suppose the other side could be that people keep bidding up futures... so say a November delivery contract is $165. Consumption nose-dives and the spot is $145 in November. I assume I'm still selling my futures, but at a loss now.
I know I don't know anything about futures trading, can someone provide a thumbnail sketch?
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