Market 15% overpriced

[James5v]

I was listening to Don Putnam, Grail Partners, on CNBC this morning and he feels the stock market has been denying the credit crisis and has been expecting the market to continue as it has in the past. He says this is a mistake and he feels the market is 15% overpriced at the 11000 level. I was wondering what others think of his statements.

[dex]

What was his basis - P/E or some other measure?

[James5v]

You can see his interview at:Video- CNBC.com

[al_bundy]

i bet the next guest thought the market was a screaming buy

[James5v]

It was a pretty bearish morning on CNBC.

BTW, it looks pretty bearish on Wall Street too.

[youbet]

Originally Posted by al_bundy

i bet the next guest thought the market was a screaming buy

So, you're saying "they don't/can't know, we don't/can't know?"

I sure don't know. Even the usually reliable predictor of doing the opposite of whatever youbet is doing isn't always working. Over the past few months I've gotten in and out of BAC profitably....... Of course, the vast majority of my domesic equity position is in TSM which I'm watching swirl around and head down the drain.....

[ziggy29]

Rule #1 of financial peace: Turn off CNBC. These guys are scaring everyone witless and helping to make doom a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[FinanceDude]

Originally Posted by ziggy29

rule #1 of financial peace: Turn off cnbc. These guys are scaring everyone witless and helping to make doom a self-fulfilling prophecy.

chaotic
news
broadcasting
corp

[al_bundy]

Originally Posted by ziggy29

Rule #1 of financial peace: Turn off CNBC. These guys are scaring everyone witless and helping to make doom a self-fulfilling prophecy.

this is the best time to watch CNBC, at it's most entertaining. i usually get bored when the market is going up

[James5v]

If the market keeps going like it is today, then it will soon be worth 15% less.

[harley]

Originally Posted by James5v

I was listening to Don Putnam, Grail Partners, on CNBC this morning and he feels the stock market has been denying the credit crisis and has been expecting the market to continue as it has in the past. He says this is a mistake and he feels the market is 15% overpriced at the 11000 level. I was wondering what others think of his statements.

That would be ~9350. I've read various books and articles over the years that say essentially the same thing. I think Bernstein has said that in order for the market to maintain it's historical 9.5% growth it would need to drop into that range. Either that or do the more mainstream expectation of 6.8% growth for the next decade or so. So I'm not doubting it.

I'd be curious to see if, assuming we did drop to that level, would people be piling in sensing a great buying opportunity? Or would they be so cautious that growth from that point would still be reasonably slow?

[Dawg54]

Originally Posted by James5v

It was a pretty bearish morning on CNBC.

I hate those SOB's. All they are interested in is ratings. An of course the way to do it is through doom and gloom reporting. They are just fanning the fires for their own benefit. I admit, I occasionally watch it during times like these but all it does is just get my blood pressure up.

[Art G]

It's hard to tell yet how far the market is overvalued, however, I'd say it's a goodly bit. I wonder how much the SEC has been making sure that CEO's who signed off on financials are being held responsible. They passed the rule a few years ago.