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Old 05-18-2016, 07:31 PM   #41
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"Market coming up on 2 years of flat" and I'm coming up on 2 years since I ER'd.

Coincidence? I think not.......
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Old 05-18-2016, 07:40 PM   #42
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"Market coming up on 2 years of flat" and I'm coming up on 2 years since I ER'd.

Coincidence? I think not.......
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:05 PM   #43
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No tree grows to the sky.

We need a sharp , ugly drop to shake out the weak , and a healthy solid recovery without endless QE and other stimulus. Let the markets run as intended , and return to capitalism, not this clone of the Japanese economic model we have , IMO.

Plenty of opportunity will occur during normal economic cycles.
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:14 PM   #44
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Not flat, but not real inspiring. $10k invested in Total Stock Adm on 5/18/14 would be worth $11,175 on 5/17/16 so a 5.875% simple return, perhaps a bit less with compounding... not great but not flat either.
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Old 05-19-2016, 02:35 AM   #45
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No problem. The Fed is going to help by giving it a dose of Pepto Bismol. Or is it Miralax?
I guess you're talking about this from yesterday's Fed Minute's release. . .

Fed Is Seriously Considering Raising Interest Rates in June, Meeting Minutes Say

Or maybe this from two days ago . . .

Consumer Prices Climb 0.4% in April

I'd say the most likely Fed action is to raise rates. If the economy starts to look squishy, they'll hold. Only if things turn down will they cut.

Not sure how any of that is bullish for equities.
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Old 05-19-2016, 03:02 AM   #46
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It was a sarcastic joke.
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Old 05-19-2016, 03:53 AM   #47
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on an inflation adjusted basis the s&p 500 has averaged about 1.83% the last 15 years . one dollar is 1.34 adjusted for inflation .
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Old 05-19-2016, 05:26 AM   #48
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Not flat, but not real inspiring. $10k invested in Total Stock Adm on 5/18/14 would be worth $11,175 on 5/17/16 so a 5.875% simple return, perhaps a bit less with compounding... not great but not flat either.

See original post - I didn't pick a certain date, but rather when the SP500 first crossed the 2000 level.

It was first hit almost 2 years ago ( in July 2014) and here we are 2 years later pretty much at that same 2000 level.

Yes saw an up leg to 2131 and a down leg to around 1850 but it's been within that band now for 2 years now... And we've not seen a new market high in a year...

The bull usually ends with a whimper. I think we're whimpering ....
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Old 05-19-2016, 05:29 AM   #49
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on an inflation adjusted basis the s&p 500 has averaged about 1.83% the last 15 years . one dollar is 1.34 adjusted for inflation .

Is that the geometric or arithmetic average inflation adjusted return ?
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Old 05-19-2016, 06:14 AM   #50
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Considering we own a good chunk of Apple (sub 10%), the last two years have been pretty flat for us.
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Old 05-19-2016, 08:15 AM   #51
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See original post - I didn't pick a certain date, but rather when the SP500 first crossed the 2000 level.

It was first hit almost 2 years ago ( in July 2014) and here we are 2 years later pretty much at that same 2000 level.

Yes saw an up leg to 2131 and a down leg to around 1850 but it's been within that band now for 2 years now... And we've not seen a new market high in a year...

The bull usually ends with a whimper. I think we're whimpering ....
The bull usually ends with a whimper? Didn't happen that way in 2000 or 2008. Sometimes there are flattish periods.
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Old 05-19-2016, 09:06 AM   #52
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Is that the geometric or arithmetic average inflation adjusted return ?
Cagr
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Old 05-19-2016, 09:30 AM   #53
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Our net worth hit a peak exactly a year ago. So for us, it seems like it's only been flat (to down) for a year, not two.
Me too. May 21st to be exact.

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Well, IMO, the S&P500 really got ahead of itself in 2013, so we've spent the following years trying to digest the overindulgence.......
I look at the 20-50 year trend and view it as the tide; there will be things like sand castles and little walls that will hold back that tide for a bit but over time, the tide will win out.

If the tide came up too fast, it needs to reestablish its positive equilibrium.

Having said that, I still believe there's billions/trillions sitting on the sidelines since 2008.
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Old 05-19-2016, 09:46 AM   #54
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on an inflation adjusted basis the s&p 500 has averaged about 1.83% the last 15 years . one dollar is 1.34 adjusted for inflation .
You probably left out dividends. The number I have with dividends is 3.4% (May 2001 through April 2016).

For 20 years, this goes up to 5.6% after inflation.
For 25 years, this goes up to 6.8% after inflation.
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Old 05-19-2016, 11:22 AM   #55
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I went from jan 2000 to dec2015 since those are the last completed years. The 1.83% real return is with dividends.

That means any older money you had accumulated up until 2000 basically hit a wall. New money did fine but if you had a sizeable balance and went to sleep for 15 years and woke up you would be like what the heck.
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Old 05-19-2016, 11:37 AM   #56
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I went from jan 2000 to dec2015 since those are the last completed years. The 1.83% real return is with dividends.
And if you bring that forward from 2000 until May 2016 your average annual return over the past 16.5 years bumps up to 2.0% real with dividends reinvested.

The good news is that valuations on the S&P 500 have dropped from 44x to 26x over that time period. So instead of being ridiculously overvalued we're now just overvalued.
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Old 05-19-2016, 11:41 AM   #57
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I went from jan 2000 to dec2015 since those are the last completed years. The 1.83% real return is with dividends.

That means any older money you had accumulated up until 2000 basically hit a wall. New money did fine but if you had a sizeable balance and went to sleep for 15 years and woke up you would be like what the heck.
OK, my numbers agree with yours for that period.

But to get a decent picture of returns, shouldn't we look at rolling period returns? M* will do that but the longest period is 5 years. Here is the 5 year rolling returns chart for the SP500 fund (VFINX). The last bar is fro the period May 2011 through April 2016. You can easily see the 2 bear market periods:

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Old 05-19-2016, 12:10 PM   #58
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...The good news is that valuations on the S&P 500 have dropped from 44x to 26x over that time period. So instead of being ridiculously overvalued we're now just overvalued.
And how much the S&P needs to drop until it becomes fairly valued?
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Old 05-19-2016, 12:22 PM   #59
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I've heard it's around 16. But in 2009, it was outrageous, like 120-70, yet it was time to buy. Is this a reliable signal? I wonder.
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Old 05-19-2016, 12:33 PM   #60
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OK, my numbers agree with yours for that period.

But to get a decent picture of returns, shouldn't we look at rolling period returns? M* will do that but the longest period is 5 years. Here is the 5 year rolling returns chart for the SP500 fund (VFINX). The last bar is fro the period May 2011 through April 2016. You can easily see the 2 bear market periods:

everyones numbers are unique to them because of the amount of money they have at any point and the time frames leading in and out matter a lot.

As an example if we look at the 17 years from 1987 to 2003 markets had an amazing almost 14% cagr return .

That was great ,except the time frame leading in was horrible. Most of us could save nothing , 401k's were not even around yet . So here come the greatest bull in history but we have very little money accumulated yet to work for us.

On the other hand today a 7% drop which is small represents 9 years of maxing out my 401k at catchup.

So just looking at cherry picked time frames means little as do average returns on funds since we all add money at different times , buy in differently , rebalance at different points , etc.
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