Market coming up on 2 years of flat.

[Totoro]

I rather get assigned on my cash covered puts than having them expire worthless.

At least I'm in a "tails I win a bit, heads I win more" situation.

 

[papadad111]

whatever i did manage to accumulate hit a wall in 2000 . the newer money did just fine . today with full fuel tanks i am in my 2nd retirement year and things have been dismal since retiring . .

it is so far the last 2 years that count the most for me .

i was never one to watch random time frames since it really meant little to me .

Yes. OP here. I get amused by the "what's your annual return threads" for this very reason.

Also new to FIRE and the last 24 months have pretty much sucked as far as market returns go ...

well...DW reminds me that mr market could have gone in reverse.

So... I'll be making a poll tomorrow

Does one consider this a "good time" because markets have not gone down over the last 2 years or a "bad time" because markets have not gone up ?

Poll ... Coming soon.

 

[Fedup]

I rather get assigned on my cash covered puts than having them expire worthless.

At least I'm in a "tails I win a bit, heads I win more" situation.

I want my money to churn over like butter. If I have to hold then I hold.

 

[papadad111]

Your thread title says two years flat and you started the thread on 5/17 so I looked back two years. If you're going to use the title "two years flat" then either use the right reference dates or wait until July 2014 and see what happens or rename it 1 3/4 years flat.

I did that on purpose to drive the enginerds and aspergers types loco.

Actually I couldn't edit the title ... But u all surely get the idea by reading my first post where I said that its been "nearly" 2 years ... Alas it's It's been more than 1 3/4 years. Which would be just 21 months ...
it's been 22 months ... It's been more than 7 quarters but less than 8.

Plus the title says "coming up on " which implies we've not hit 2 years yet. Anyway, We could split hairs all day on the title so let's not derail the point of the thread in this sort of debate please. We're still sadly stuck near 2000 and it's another week closer to the 2 year mark .

 

[NW-Bound]

... Does one consider this a "good time" because markets have not gone down over the last 2 years or a "bad time" because markets have not gone up ?

Poll ... Coming soon.

It's neutral.

I say the market behavior is about what one can expect, given that it has risen so much in previous years. Stock prices cannot keep on outrunning corporations' earnings. If they rise further too soon too fast, that's bubble territory, and they would just crash harder later on. Not that I would mind another bubble. I would try to sell more and more into the rally.

 

[Fedup]

I say it will zig zag.

 

[NW-Bound]

Like it has been doing around a flat line? Sure, that's the most likely scenario, IMHO.

 

[dixonge]

I did that on purpose to drive the enginerds and aspergers types loco.

Mission accomplished

 

[cooch96]

Emotionally, I'd say this is a bad time. I'm down about 0.9% since summer of 2014, and I'm a bit frustrated. Had a talk with DF and he acted surprised (impressed?) I had six figures invested in stocks and knew who Jack Bogle was. DF then assumed I must be making 8-9% per year. And all I could say was, "um, no. not recently."

If the market was down, I could congratulate myself for buying low. If the market is high, I can watch those digits climb and feel great. A flat market is discouraging.

I'm not letting it change my behavior, though. I cannot predict the future, but I'm convinced DCAing into diversified value indices and paying off the mortgage is my best play.

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

My take on the flat market is that it is likely to continue for a few years. I would be surprised to see a crash. But if a recession comes then all bets are off. But who really knows?

 

[Lsbcal]

Yes. OP here. I get amused by the "what's your annual return threads" for this very reason.

Also new to FIRE and the last 24 months have pretty much sucked as far as market returns go ...

well...DW reminds me that mr market could have gone in reverse.

So... I'll be making a poll tomorrow

Does one consider this a "good time" because markets have not gone down over the last 2 years or a "bad time" because markets have not gone up ?

Poll ... Coming soon.

Papadad111, before you make up a poll please get your facts right. Here are the facts for 24 months from my previous post:

From May 1, 2014 to May 1, 2016 my data shows 14% gain which includes dividends. Actually this is from the Vanguard SP500 fund VFIAX.

I'm not sure where your down market ideas are coming from. If you look at just the last 12 months, then M* shows as of May 20 we are down -1.3% for 12 months. Maybe this is what you are referring to?

 

[Fedup]

Like it has been doing around a flat line? Sure, that's the most likely scenario, IMHO.

Yeap, zig zag around a flat line.

 

[papadad111]

From CNBC today.

"It's been a quiet few months for stocks. Actually, in a way, it's been a quiet couple years: The S&P 500 hasn't fallen below 1,810 or risen above 2,135 since February 2014.
Still, the lack of activity in recent days has been noticeable. It is worth noting, for instance, that Monday was the lowest-volume day of the year for the popular S&P 500-tracking ETF SPY.
And according to Jonathan Krinsky, technical analyst at MKM Partners, the S&P's monthly Bollinger Bands are now in their narrowest range in more than 20 years."

Whole story here :

Stocks are doing something they haven’t done in 20 years http://www.cnbc.com/id/103661399

 

[papadad111]

Papadad111, before you make up a poll please get your facts right. Here are the facts for 24 months from my previous post:

I'm not sure where your down market ideas are coming from. If you look at just the last 12 months, then M* shows as of May 20 we are down -1.3% for 12 months. Maybe this is what you are referring to?

For about the 27th time (please read the old posts). We hit 2000 first in July 2014. We are now 6 weeks until the 2 year anniversary of that date, so those who put money in at that key market milestone and did nothing else have been nearly flat including cap gains dividends and deducting inflation ... Mr SP500 market is not much beyond the 2000 level even on today's 1% rally. Some 2 years later.

I'm referring to that.

This article too: Stocks are doing something they haven’t done in 20 years http://www.cnbc.com/id/103661399

 

[Looking4Ward]

Then there's this:

"Some investors and pundits are commemorating the one-year anniversary of the May 2015 record high in U.S. stocks by noting that the market is only a couple percent below it."

What’s next for the longest stock market correction in history? - MarketWatch

 

[RetireAge50]

Yawn...

Totally with you here.

 

[Lsbcal]

For about the 27th time (please read the old posts). We hit 2000 first in July 2014. We are now 6 weeks until the 2 year anniversary of that date, so those who put money in at that key market milestone and did nothing else have been nearly flat including cap gains dividends and deducting inflation ... Mr SP500 market is not much beyond the 2000 level even on today's 1% rally. Some 2 years later.

I'm referring to that.

This article too: Stocks are doing something they haven’t done in 20 years Stocks are doing something they haven’t done in 20 years

OK Papadad111, let us say we are both right but are probably referring to different time periods.

Anyway, today is an up day and I'm in an expansive mood.

Going forward, things will get better ... I hope.

 

[papadad111]

Yep! And agree. Hope things continue to get better.

 

[M Paquette]

Could be worse.

Could be 2008.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum

 

[dixonge]

Then there's this:

"Some investors and pundits are commemorating the one-year anniversary of the May 2015 record high in U.S. stocks by noting that the market is only a couple percent below it."

What’s next for the longest stock market correction in history? - MarketWatch

So being 2% off of a high = 'correction' ?

 

[NW-Bound]

From 5/21/2015 to 2/11/2016, the S&P lost 14%. That certainly counts as a correction.

Even now, it still has not recovered to the old high. They will say that the correction has ended when the market recovers the loss.

 

[target2019]

So being 2% off of a high = 'correction' ?

The columnist is not being precise in his use of words. Whatever he needs to attract readers seems to be ok.

 

[papadad111]

He explains his definition of correction early in the article. "an analysis of the 35 bull markets in a calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Focusing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I calculated the length of the longest correction within each of those bull markets (defined as the number of days it took for the market to surpass a previous high)"

I do agree he took some poetic justice in his selection of market terminology. Perhaps a better term would be a "bull market pause".

It's either a bull correction (or pause as I suggest as a better term) or the end of this bull cycle (thus a bear cycle) which would probably attract even more raised eyebrows and possibly fewer readers ...

Hope and optimism vs doom and gloom

 

[MichaelB]

Hope and optimism vs doom and gloom

Sounds like bipolar disorder.

 

[papadad111]

Sounds like bipolar disorder.

What? On Wall Street? Say it ain't so !!

The market goes down until it goes up -and then- it goes up until it goes down. Unless it goes sideways for a while.