Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 05-20-2016, 10:37 AM   #81
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
Oops - well I was responding to and quoted Mathjak's post where he was clearly discussing the S&P500 performance from Jan 2000 to Dec 2015. And my subsequent posts clarified it.
I had no problem understanding your meaning. But then we've had some dialog on other threads about our actual sequence of returns. ReWahoo started one good one but I don't have the link.
__________________

__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-20-2016, 01:04 PM   #82
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 155
I have about 6% of my portfolio in a 401(k) with TIAA-CREF from a previous job. It is 100% in equities, and I haven't made any deposits or withdrawals since 1998. Today, I use it as my personal equity benchmark because the returns include the costs for the funds (~0.5%).

My 18 year annualized return is 5.23% before inflation, with dividends reinvested, fees subtracted, and taxes not yet paid. The S&P 500 has returned 6.15% over that same period, but just 3.9% after adjusting for inflation. That means my real return for a 100% equity investment are right around 3% for 18 years. That is less than half of the historical S&P 500's real return.

Sure, others have had different results, but these matter to me, obviously. It's tough now, because I should be seeing large portfolio gains due to market returns since I'm nearing the end of my contribution period, but lately, most of the gains are from my new contributions and dividends. Kind of stinks, but what else can you do but keep chucking money away?
__________________

__________________
NoiseBoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 01:12 PM   #83
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
100% in equities, and 1/2 the return of the S&P? One has to allow for some expenses, but that's too big a discrepancy.

I don't know what choices of investment there are inside TIAA-CREF, but if they are all lousy, can you move out to an IRA to have better alternatives?

Oh wait. Let's compare oranges to oranges. You: 5.23%. The S&P: 6.15%. It's not 1/2.

If you were comparing to the "historical return", then the S&P return since 2000 is also "historical", but in a bad way. They don't call 2000-2010 the "lost decade" for nothing.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 01:31 PM   #84
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Rats! I've been semi-asleep at the switch after going mostly full auto life cycle funds 2006 and the Saint's finally winning a Superbowl I haven't been watching Mr Market as much.

1966 -2016 I should be used to the ups, downs and flats by now.

heh heh heh - Mr RMD has given me some mad money over yearly expenses perhaps re stimulate male hormones I may do some rank speculation unless I find a more fulfiling hobby.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 02:27 PM   #85
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 155
@ NW Bound


Right. By historical, I meant the entire period that they have S&P 500 data for. That has a real return of between 6% - 7%, exclusive of investment fees.


I guess the point of my post was simply that the last 18 years, which constitutes the bulk of my investment contribution period, has not delivered historical returns, even for a "risky" 100% equity portfolio.
__________________
NoiseBoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 04:35 PM   #86
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
And the period of 1982-2000 delivered stunning performance, but I was not 100% invested.

Some people are lucky, some are not. I am about average on the luck scale, I think.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 04:41 PM   #87
Full time employment: Posting here.
dixonge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Ajijic
Posts: 843
Quote:
Originally Posted by NoiseBoy View Post
@ NW Bound


Right. By historical, I meant the entire period that they have S&P 500 data for. That has a real return of between 6% - 7%, exclusive of investment fees.


I guess the point of my post was simply that the last 18 years, which constitutes the bulk of my investment contribution period, has not delivered historical returns, even for a "risky" 100% equity portfolio.
Is your 100% equity portfolio 100% invested in S&P index funds or etf's? Because otherwise you have simply proven that it is extremely hard to outperform the overall market...
__________________
dixonge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 04:42 PM   #88
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
And the period of 1982-2000 delivered stunning performance, but I was not 100% invested.

Some people are lucky, some are not. I am about average on the luck scale, I think.
We were invested during this period, all stocks. Best year was 1993 up 41% and 1995 wasn't bad either at 33%. Sorry for bragging but could not resist.

Someday the good times will return. Hard for many to imagine it now.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 09:20 PM   #89
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fedup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 2,930
I've been playing with the portfolio visualizer for back testing a few portfolios. And to my surprise, the portfolio with 100% SP500 didn't beat 50% VWENX and 50% VWIAX.
I tried a few in between because I didn't want to rely strictly on those 2 mutual funds.
__________________
Fedup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 09:23 PM   #90
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
It probably depends on the period you test. In go-go years, conservative funds are hard pressed to beat the S&P. In terrible years, bonds rule.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 09:30 PM   #91
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedup View Post
I've been playing with the portfolio visualizer for back testing a few portfolios. And to my surprise, the portfolio with 100% SP500 didn't beat 50% VWENX and 50% VWIAX.
I tried a few in between because I didn't want to rely strictly on those 2 mutual funds.
Bonds have had a declining rate environment since 1982. Don't expect that to continue indefinitely. FWIW, I'm 60/40 so not totally negative on bonds but would advise my son to me mostly equities.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 09:36 PM   #92
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fedup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 2,930
1985-present.
__________________
Fedup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 09:56 PM   #93
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
That's 30 years till now. If you break it out, the two periods of 1985-2000 and 2000-2015 may look quite different.

30 years is not a long time, when we consider our working life. But that is a long time relative to what time many of us may have left on earth (we just do not know who will draw the short sticks, and there are more short sticks than long ones).

I am just trying to say that one can do one thing or the other, and who knows what's right or wrong. The future is not ours to see.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 10:12 PM   #94
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fedup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 2,930
True, that's why it's called back testing. Do we have a forward looking predictor yet?
__________________
Fedup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 10:21 PM   #95
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
No, we don't. That's why I like to be diversified. I will never be 100% right, but there's also no chance of being 100% wrong. No 100% of anything for me.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 10:45 PM   #96
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
Bonds have had a declining rate environment since 1982. Don't expect that to continue indefinitely. FWIW, I'm 60/40 so not totally negative on bonds but would advise my son to me mostly equities.
Unless interest rates go negative, bonds cannot repeat the past performance. On the other hand, stocks are fully valued, so also have limited growth potential.

So, I stay diversified, and try to enhance the yield of my stocks and cash with options writing. I am making only small money with that, but when the expected returns are as puny as Boggle and Shiller predict, every bit helps.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-20-2016, 11:28 PM   #97
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
Unless interest rates go negative, bonds cannot repeat the past performance. On the other hand, stocks are fully valued, so also have limited growth potential.

So, I stay diversified, and try to enhance the yield of my stocks and cash with options writing. I am making only small money with that, but when the expected returns are as puny as Boggle and Shiller predict, every bit helps.
My feeling is that stocks have further to run. They might be fully valued but not overvalued. I wouldn't be surprised at a double digit gain year. Bonds are probably in worse territory.

But I don't really invest that way. More data driven.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2016, 06:20 AM   #98
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,407
Quote:
Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
See original post - I didn't pick a certain date, but rather when the SP500 first crossed the 2000 level.

It was first hit almost 2 years ago ( in July 2014) and here we are 2 years later pretty much at that same 2000 level.

Yes saw an up leg to 2131 and a down leg to around 1850 but it's been within that band now for 2 years now... And we've not seen a new market high in a year...

The bull usually ends with a whimper. I think we're whimpering ....
Your thread title says two years flat and you started the thread on 5/17 so I looked back two years. If you're going to use the title "two years flat" then either use the right reference dates or wait until July 2014 and see what happens or rename it 1 3/4 years flat.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2016, 01:42 PM   #99
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,391
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
My feeling is that stocks have further to run. They might be fully valued but not overvalued. I wouldn't be surprised at a double digit gain year. Bonds are probably in worse territory...
I should not be surprised to see a double-digit gain either. But I should remember to tell myself to "sell, sell, sell...".
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-21-2016, 02:22 PM   #100
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fedup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 2,930
I hope so, all my cash covered puts will be worthless.
__________________

__________________
Fedup is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
200k to 250k in a flat market UnrealizedPotential FIRE and Money 15 11-09-2015 11:24 AM
The Coming Market Environment (long) boont FIRE and Money 12 07-16-2008 11:05 AM
S&P flat for 9 years? laurence FIRE and Money 34 06-14-2008 04:11 AM
Top 7 Ways to Tell a Bear Market is Coming........ FinanceDude FIRE and Money 25 10-02-2006 02:17 PM
Market direction for this coming week ? frayne Other topics 28 07-19-2006 11:04 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:05 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.