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Old 05-25-2016, 05:17 AM   #121
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From 5/21/2015 to 2/11/2016, the S&P lost 14%. That certainly counts as a correction.

Even now, it still has not recovered to the old high. They will say that the correction has ended when the market recovers the loss.
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Old 05-25-2016, 06:17 AM   #122
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So being 2% off of a high = 'correction' ?
The columnist is not being precise in his use of words. Whatever he needs to attract readers seems to be ok.
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Market coming up on 2 years of flat.
Old 05-25-2016, 07:53 AM   #123
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Market coming up on 2 years of flat.

He explains his definition of correction early in the article. "an analysis of the 35 bull markets in a calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research. Focusing on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I calculated the length of the longest correction within each of those bull markets (defined as the number of days it took for the market to surpass a previous high)"

I do agree he took some poetic justice in his selection of market terminology. Perhaps a better term would be a "bull market pause".

It's either a bull correction (or pause as I suggest as a better term) or the end of this bull cycle (thus a bear cycle) which would probably attract even more raised eyebrows and possibly fewer readers ...

Hope and optimism vs doom and gloom
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Old 05-25-2016, 07:55 AM   #124
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Hope and optimism vs doom and gloom
Sounds like bipolar disorder.
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Old 05-25-2016, 07:59 AM   #125
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Sounds like bipolar disorder.

What? On Wall Street? Say it ain't so !!

The market goes down until it goes up -and then- it goes up until it goes down. Unless it goes sideways for a while.
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Old 05-25-2016, 10:02 AM   #126
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The widely accepted definition of a correction is a 10% drop.

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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
From 5/21/2015 to 2/11/2016, the S&P lost 14%. That certainly counts as a correction.

Even now, it still has not recovered to the old high. They will say that the correction has ended when the market recovers the loss.
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Old 05-25-2016, 11:08 AM   #127
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The widely accepted definition of a correction is a 10% drop.

Yes.. Indeed.

And I also think if we remained 10 percent or more BELOW prior market high we would still be in a technically defined bull market correction.

Since we are still below prior highs but *less than 10 percent off of those highs *. we might be "recovering from the bull market correction".

Or we might have killed the bull in the process.

traders market ... Except that even volatility is anemic.
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Old 05-25-2016, 11:19 AM   #128
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The quoted article has a chart showing that in the past corrections, the market would recover to its previous high well within 12 months. And the average "recovery" time is only 5 months. That is amazingly short.

And the point the author is making is that this time the recovery is longer than average.
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Old 05-25-2016, 11:21 AM   #129
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All my stocks or stock groups went up big today and yesterday. I should go away more often.
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Old 05-25-2016, 12:16 PM   #130
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The quoted article has a chart showing that in the past corrections, the market would recover to its previous high well within 12 months. And the average "recovery" time is only 5 months. That is amazingly short.

And the point the author is making is that this time the recovery is longer than average.
^ exactly why I wanted to share that article.
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Old 05-25-2016, 04:49 PM   #131
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All my stocks or stock groups went up big today and yesterday. I should go away more often.
Today, the S&P is up 0.70%, while my stocks are up 1.02%.

Yesterday, the S&P went up 1.37%, and my stocks were up 1.43%.

But when the S&P dropped, my stocks usually dropped more.

What went down more rebounds more. That's what one gets with high-beta stocks.
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Old 05-25-2016, 06:41 PM   #132
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...

What went down more rebounds more. That's what one gets with high-beta stocks.
It's always sweet when the market goes your way and your choices do better then the alternate choices. Also, it's a consolation prize when your choices do less worse then the alternates on bad days.
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Old 05-25-2016, 06:55 PM   #133
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A weird market...Common stocks jumping and threat of a rate hike, one would think the preferreds would sag a bit. They have been jumping too. People keep climbing in searching for yield. Some of mine went up a couple bucks in past week and they were already past call and above par..Since they are income issues why wait all year for the dividends when you can snag 6 months to 2 years worth right now....Bye Bye... And buy something else.


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Old 05-25-2016, 07:34 PM   #134
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... Also, it's a consolation prize when your choices do less worse then the alternates on bad days.
I wish that were true more often. My high-beta stocks go more than the total market in both directions. But I like to play with fire. I am only 60% in stocks, but the total portfolio behaves like 100% stock.
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Old 05-26-2016, 09:18 AM   #135
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All my stocks or stock groups went up big today and yesterday. I should go away more often.
Same here. Individual portfolio up ~5% in two days. Just hit a new all-time high.

Which makes me wonder: when exactly in May are we supposed to sell and go away
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Old 05-26-2016, 09:26 AM   #136
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Right after a 5% move in two days?
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:16 AM   #137
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Right after a 5% move in two days?
lol

or maybe it's just a myth?

https://portfoliosolutions.com/lates...d-go-away-myth
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:43 AM   #138
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From a net worth standpoint, I'm at an all-time high as of last night's close. However, when you take into account additional investments, I'm still probably down about 1-2% from my last peak set in May 2015.

However, if you count a "correction" as a 10% loss or more, I don't think there's been a period since that May 2015 high that I, personally, have been down 10% or more. I only keep month-end numbers in my Excel spreadsheet, so I guess it's possible that there may have been a mid-month period where I briefly had a 10+% loss?

Earlier on in the year, in January or February, I think, I might have been down about 7.5%, net worth-wise. So, factoring in additional investments up to that point, I guess I could have briefly gone over that 10% threshold.

The last time I can remember what I'd consider a serious correction was back in 2011. From July to August, I lost about 15%. And I didn't gain it all back until sometime in early 2012.
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Old 05-26-2016, 04:58 PM   #139
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So, I was looking at this thread. Based on the SPY close today @ 209, compared with the close two years ago, May 23 @ 190, plus the divs, it looks to me like total return has been around 14%, or 7% per year. Below the long term average but definitely not flat. Not bad, actually. Problem solved?
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Old 05-26-2016, 05:21 PM   #140
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+1 Actually a tad over 7%/year... much ado about nothing. Even if you start in mid July 2014 as the OP says he had in mind when he characterized it as flat it is about 5%/year... no great shakes but still not flat.
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