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Old 05-26-2016, 05:45 PM   #141
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So, I was looking at this thread. Based on the SPY close today @ 209, compared with the close two years ago, May 23 @ 190, plus the divs, it looks to me like total return has been around 14%, or 7% per year. Below the long term average but definitely not flat. Not bad, actually. Problem solved?
Yes! But I was referring to the market first hitting 2000.... so different time frame.

It was 205 a few days ago... and 200 a few (2) years ago . And my starting point was S&P first hitting 2000 (200 on SPY) which was July 2014... not 1900 (190 on SPY) ...so a 100 point difference in the starting point... But then we've said that now for the 28th time...

SO, (209-200)/200 = 4.5% total over 2 years. 2.25% per year.
Plus dividend yield of 2% per year .... less inflation of 1.9% per year.
= 2.35% real return per year as of today.

And from earlier this week. (205-200)/200 = 2.5% over 2 years.... 1.25% per year. Plus dividend yield of 2% per year... less inflation of 1.9% per year = 1.35% real return per year as of last week. Not zero but pretty damn flat.

No new highs in over a year now.

You can pick your time frames.... I opened the thread with very specific market number, which was a well bench-marked, well-quoted market milestone, which was the first time SP500 crossed 2000. It's a slow grind.

Some are saying the low volume happening now and low volatility is driving options prices way way down. Might be interesting to buy some long duration options given the unique market situation. Maybe some opportunities in Mr. Market after all on the option side even as we grind relatively sideways....

The S&P 500 is doing something extraordinary — nothing!
The S&P 500 is doing something extraordinary nothing!
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:12 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
YNo new highs in over a year now.

You can pick your time frames.... I opened the thread with very specific market number, which was a well bench-marked, well-quoted market milestone, which was the first time SP500 crossed 2000. It's a slow grind.

Some are saying the low volume happening now and low volatility is driving options prices way way down. Might be interesting to buy some long duration options given the unique market situation. Maybe some opportunities in Mr. Market after all on the option side even as we grind relatively sideways....

The S&P 500 is doing something extraordinary — nothing!
The S&P 500 is doing something extraordinary nothing!
But this is often the case, depending on the timeframe. For example, the S&P500 first breached 1500 in 2000. Seven years later it recovered from the Dot Com bust and once again breached 1500, only to fall again with the sub-prime bust. Six years later it finally passed 1600. That's a 12-year period where it was range-bound, never breaking over 1600. There were periods of volatility and big drawdowns, but there was a definite band of activity.

The market also climbed for six straight years, 2009-2015.

So there ya go...
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:28 PM   #143
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With the bank paying a tenth (or less) a cent a year 2.5% seems a goldmine.

Everything is relative I guess.
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Old 05-26-2016, 10:31 PM   #144
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... the S&P500 first breached 1500 in 2000. Seven years later it recovered from the Dot Com bust and once again breached 1500, only to fall again with the sub-prime bust. Six years later it finally passed 1600. That's a 12-year period where it was range-bound, never breaking over 1600. There were periods of volatility and big drawdowns, but there was a definite band of activity...
Yes.

Accumulators who kept on buying between 2000 and 2013 made money because they bought during the dips, even though the S&P was the same at the endpoints of this 13 year period.

People who bought, held and never traded during this 13-year period only made money from the dividends, which were cancelled out by inflation. In effect, they broke even.

They don't call this the lost decade for nothing.

So, depending on what you did during the above period, you could 1) lose money, 2) make money, or 3) break even.
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Old 05-28-2016, 03:16 PM   #145
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+1. Besides, the S&P 500 is one market among many markets in an investor's portfolio. Bonds, real estate, gold, emerging markets, energy, etc. all had their own cycles during that same span.
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Old 06-12-2016, 06:03 AM   #146
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And the grind continues.
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Old 06-12-2016, 08:49 AM   #147
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ImageUploadedByEarly Retirement Forum1465739184.349053.jpg

ImageUploadedByEarly Retirement Forum1465739230.205214.jpg

I am looking for a graphic similar to chart 2, but updated information through May 2016. Any good sources ? I've tried google Etc and after several hundred images I'm not finding it...
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