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Market coming up on 2 years of flat.
Old 05-17-2016, 10:25 AM   #1
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Market coming up on 2 years of flat.

Yawn...

Approaching 2 years of the 2K grind... A few little loop-de-loops has been about it...

Nice to wring our hands and do nothing ...

Collect that 2.5% dividend.. And keep waiting.

Two years of a 1 percent annualized real return after inflation ...

Bogle so far is proving to be correct !
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:54 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by papadad111 View Post
Yawn...
Approaching 2 years of the 2K grind... A few little loop-de-loops has been about it...

Nice to wring our hands and do nothing ...

Collect that 2.5% dividend.. And keep waiting.

Two years of a 1 percent annualized real return after inflation ...

Bogle so far is proving to be correct !
Considering I am in the final stages of adding to the portfolio, I like the flat years. I assume it is a consolidation phase, and will go up a bunch after I FIRE...

If not, and we head for a period of 20+ Japan style markets
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Old 05-17-2016, 11:12 AM   #3
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I am retired and I am not unhappy with the market at all. Dividends keep trickling in from time to time, and the market has not been too alarming so that is nice too.

Here is a graph of the Dow for the past 2 years obtained from Yahoo Finance. It doesn't look too terribly flat to me. But then, I guess the overall movement hasn't been too extreme.
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Old 05-17-2016, 12:03 PM   #4
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Here is a graph of the Dow for the past 2 years obtained from Yahoo Finance. It doesn't look too terribly flat to me. But then, I guess the overall movement hasn't been too extreme.
+1

Quick check of the S&P500 over the past 24 months shows a move from ~ 1880 to today's 2055. That's a 9.3% increase. Nothing to write home about, for sure, but not what I would consider "flat".
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Old 05-17-2016, 12:44 PM   #5
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first time we hit 2k SP500 was summer (July) 2014. Here we are 22 months later and we are 58 points higher. Closing jn on 2 years of flat. (Ok for u engineers, up a couple percent over two years).

Those quarterly dividend checks do seem extra special these days !
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Old 05-17-2016, 12:50 PM   #6
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Well, look at that chart over 2 years. The market god gave us 3 chances of making 8 to 10% each time. Whoo wee!

Market timing is tempting, and can be really lucrative. Just don't time it wrong!
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:23 PM   #7
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It doesn't look too terribly flat to me.
Look at it over the last 5 years or so and the flatness will pop right out at you
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:31 PM   #8
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Does anyone have a chart for the next 5 years?
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:36 PM   #9
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It doesn't look too terribly flat to me. But then, I guess the overall movement hasn't been too extreme.
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Look at it over the last 5 years or so and the flatness will pop right out at you
To me that looks pretty bumpy in the past two years! I guess it's all in how we look at it. I suppose the bumpiness could be a lot worse. And yes, I agree that like I said, the *overall* movement hasn't been too extreme in the past two years.
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:47 PM   #10
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I assume it is a consolidation phase, and will go up a bunch after I FIRE...
Please let this be true.

Everyone in the forum, repeat after me, "This is a consolidation phase, and will start going up a bunch very soon".
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Old 05-17-2016, 01:50 PM   #11
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I'd have to look at my records to be sure, but from two years ago to now, I might be up about 4-5%, total. It certainly wasn't flat along the way, as there have been some peaks and dips, some markets did well while others dropped, etc. I know I made about 5.6% in 2014, maybe 1.6% in 2015, and the last time I checked was up maybe 1.5% this year. However, most of my gains in 2014 came early on in the year. I think I topped out in July of that year, and finished the year a bit below that level.
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Old 05-17-2016, 03:04 PM   #12
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Frankly, it's too much of a yoyo for my comfort level.
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Old 05-17-2016, 03:14 PM   #13
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Yo yo?

Yo yos are good for you. Embrace yo yos. Yo yos cause greed, then fear, then greed, then fear...

So, you go: sell, then buy, then sell, then buy...

Be careful you are not out-of-sync and go: buy, then sell, then buy, then sell...
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Old 05-17-2016, 03:20 PM   #14
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I refrain from buying after the s&p500 reached 2000. I did sell cash covered puts last week. I might as well profit from the market going sideways. I won't have time to trade. I will be traveling. No access or sporadic access to the Internet is not good for trading. I babysit my trades.
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Old 05-17-2016, 03:46 PM   #15
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Does anyone have a chart for the next 5 years?
Sure. You can have it in 2021.
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Old 05-17-2016, 05:12 PM   #16
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Here is a graph of the Dow for the past 2 years obtained from Yahoo Finance. It doesn't look too terribly flat to me. But then, I guess the overall movement hasn't been too extreme.
The same chart in Euros (my currency) went up, up.

and then down ..
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Old 05-17-2016, 05:31 PM   #17
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I have only been active in my company 401k for the last 20 months, I'm up ~2.6% today, have been up as much as 12% and down about the same. I had the fantastic luck of one huge purchase happening on the lowest day the S&P 500 has had in those 20 months. Not trying to time the market, it's just the day the corporate bonus paid.
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Old 05-17-2016, 05:36 PM   #18
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Here is my decades chart updated through yesterday's close. Shows some flatness over the recent year (dark blue line).

M* puts the SP500 performance at -0.6% for the last year, but +9.9% for 3 years.

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Old 05-17-2016, 06:45 PM   #19
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Even if the indices are flat, if the market has a 2% dividend yield it's beaten the pants out of being in cash.
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Old 05-17-2016, 06:53 PM   #20
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I swear, I'll take my 401K money from my employer when I leave in a few months and put it in an IRA investing in high dividend income funds. Capital appreciation has been flat for a while and I'll take the dividends anytime.
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