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Old 08-16-2007, 08:27 PM   #21
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it seems quite clear that the investment community favors predictability, hence gridlock is welcomed by many as a way to force compromise.
Perhaps the investment community also fears an increase in the capital gains tax rate as well?
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Old 08-16-2007, 08:36 PM   #22
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Al, you may have this indicator backwards. A high mutual fund cash position is said to provide support for the market; and this has tended to be true at the extremes at least.


Bear Mountain Bull Home

here is it. down to 3.8% cash so there isn't that much money on the sidelines to buy and drive up prices
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Old 08-16-2007, 08:38 PM   #23
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Just curious....

But is the correction 'official'

It did not close down 10% from the highest close.... so why is it 'official'?
Based on the definition of "market correction" in my initial post, there is nothing that states it is based on the closing numbers. It is defined as a "drop of at least 10% in one of the market indexes" which is what happened today. At least one of the indexes dropped 10% from it's high.
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Old 08-16-2007, 08:49 PM   #24
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Looks like it will be official by anyone's definition very soon.
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Old 08-16-2007, 09:42 PM   #25
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I actually watched it some today.

It dropped about 350, recovered, dropped to almost 350, then recovered, went in the green for about 1 minute, everyone and wall street went nuts cheering, then it closed down a few points.
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Old 08-17-2007, 06:43 AM   #26
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It's official for me, regardless of the definition. Negative 1% from positive 11% in 45 days! @#$%!
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Old 08-17-2007, 07:28 AM   #27
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Sorry to those that are FIRE but like Bernstein said i'm down on my hands and knees wanting to pick up some stuff at fire sale prices.
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Old 08-17-2007, 08:05 AM   #28
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Sorry to those that are FIRE but like Bernstein said i'm down on my hands and knees wanting to pick up some stuff at fire sale prices.
Hope you did it yesterday, the feds just cut rates and looks like the market will open higher.

-ERD50
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Old 08-17-2007, 10:04 AM   #29
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I think this is option day, so the market may finish down today anyway.
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Old 08-17-2007, 12:01 PM   #30
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Hope you did it yesterday, the feds just cut rates and looks like the market will open higher.

-ERD50

the fun starts at 2pm most days, but so far it's trending lower

maybe someone smarter than me can answer this, but what is the fed cut going to do other than lower the borrowing costs of those trying to deleverage

will anyone really buy the toxic mortgages and will anyone really lend money via ninja and liar loans again?

i remember the fed cutting rates in 2001 - 2003 and the market fell almost every single time after the rate cut
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Old 08-17-2007, 12:06 PM   #31
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The fed didn't cut the fed funds rate, they just reduced the credit window rate from 6.25% to 5.75%.

Even a cut in the fed funds rate won't have much of an impact on housing. The credit crunch is due to tighter underwriting. Housing will still tank followed by consumer spending.
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Old 08-17-2007, 12:27 PM   #32
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Even a cut in the fed funds rate won't have much of an impact on housing. The credit crunch is due to tighter underwriting. Housing will still tank followed by consumer spending.
This is how it looks to me also. Which should cause a recession in due course.

The Fed and treasury and administration will be doing everything they can do to keep the stock market flying in spite of reality. So far, they have been pretty good at that task.

Ha
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