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Market Looks Happy this Morning
Old 03-21-2019, 08:16 AM   #1
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Market Looks Happy this Morning

I just seen the Feds deferred on raising the rates and looks like markets are up at opening.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:42 AM   #2
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I just seen the Feds deferred on raising the rates and looks like markets are up at opening.

.....which is helping offset the losses from yesterday.


I think the market already had this news built in, but formal confirmation of the deferment on raising rates is good vs expected. I think the bigger effect of Powell's Fed statement is that he is anticipating slowing economy with no rate increases planned for the rest of 2019.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:47 AM   #3
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^ yep, that statement will have a long range effect what happens this year. Thanks for your insight.
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Old 03-21-2019, 08:51 AM   #4
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There will be no rate hikes until after the elections in 2020.

Fed will not hike in an election year, especially this coming one.
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Old 03-21-2019, 09:01 AM   #5
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I didn't pay much attention to what the market did yesterday, except that I think at one point, the Dow might've been down about 194 points? I think the SP500 and Nasdaq were pretty flat or slightly up, even. As a result, my overall portfolio didn't budge much.

Today though, just looking at my online brokerage as a rough guide, it looks like things are really taking off! It's up about 1.4%! Oddly though, the NASDAQ is only up around .78%, SP500 up around .53%, and the DJIA is up around .44%. So, I guess it looked like I picked a few winners for once. At least, for today's race. We'll see how they run tomorrow. Or long term...

**Edit...of course, moments after I posted that, the indices start taking off more...
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Old 03-21-2019, 09:42 AM   #6
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I think the most important takeaway is expenses matter. Before expenses are accounted for, 50% of investors did better than the index and 50% did worse. Once expenses are accounted for, it skews that to the left. Over time, it REALLY skews that to the left. 1% AUM fee for 30 years will cost you a LOT of gains.
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Old 03-21-2019, 09:56 AM   #7
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I just seen the Feds deferred on raising the rates and looks like markets are up at opening.
Some day the markets are happy. Other days they are sad.

So it goes. Don't expect either to last, and you won't be disappointed.
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Old 03-21-2019, 09:58 AM   #8
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There will be no rate hikes until after the elections in 2020.

Fed will not hike in an election year, especially this coming one.
This is clearly untrue.

Hint: 2018 was an election year.

see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...mittee_actions
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Old 03-21-2019, 10:00 AM   #9
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I think the bigger effect of Powell's Fed statement is that he is anticipating slowing economy with no rate increases planned for the rest of 2019.
Yup, that's clearly the real news here.

It will be interesting to watch the political and financial fallout over the next few years.
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Old 03-21-2019, 10:07 AM   #10
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This is clearly untrue.

Hint: 2018 was an election year.

see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...mittee_actions
I think njhowie was referring to presidential election years. Not sure if the statement is truer on that basis or not.

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I think the bigger effect of Powell's Fed statement is that he is anticipating slowing economy with no rate increases planned for the rest of 2019.
To be precise, the Fed is predicting a more slowly growing economy. The Fed's consensus estimate is for 2.1% growth in GDP in 2019. That is a slower rate of growth than in 2018, but still growth.
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Old 03-21-2019, 10:10 AM   #11
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I think njhowie was referring to presidential election years. Not sure if the statement is truer on that basis or not.
Still make no sense. Still clearly not true.

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To be precise, the Fed is predicting a more slowly growing economy. The Fed's consensus estimate is for 2.1% growth in GDP in 2019. That is a slower rate of growth than in 2018, but still growth.
Yup.

Still, I expect some political and financial fallout from slower growth rates. Expectations were (intentionally or otherwise) set higher. The market doesn't like to be disappointed.
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Old 03-21-2019, 10:22 AM   #12
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Yesterday when the Fed decision was announced, the market jumped up. Then, it gave up the gain at market close. Why? I dunno.

After market close, Micron Technology, a huge producer of memory chips, announced sales and net earnings better than expectation. People now expect the doldrum in technology stocks is ending, sending all my semiconductor stocks higher today.

Nothing wrong with that. I am starting to sell some out-of-the-money covered call options on these stocks for April.
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Old 03-21-2019, 10:28 AM   #13
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Yes, but what have your international stocks/funds done for you lately?
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Old 03-21-2019, 10:28 AM   #14
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No more rate hikes for a year....ummm....well....I guess there could be a fiscally-based argument for such a decision.

I think slowing down the unwinding of the balance sheet is not wise. That's the Fed's dry powder for the next crisis.

MHO.
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Old 03-21-2019, 11:56 AM   #15
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I think that anybody who assumes they can predict market moves, is "full of canal water" (as the saying goes).

I also think that anybody who sees the slightest relationship between anything short of 9/11 or TEOTWAWKI, and market moves, also falls in that category and is fooling nobody but himself.

Feel free to think the same of me; my intent is not to insult anybody but to just throw some cold water on all the crystal ball predictions in the media.

That said, I am greatly enjoying the fact that despite living expenses in retirement, and despite buying my Dream Home in 2015, my portfolio is very closely approaching its all time high! Up just a mere $5K more and I'll be crowing about a brand new all time high.

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Old 03-21-2019, 12:02 PM   #16
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Up just a mere $5K more and I'll be crowing about a brand new all time high.

Just keep away from the "W****!" water word! (Please.)
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Old 03-21-2019, 12:06 PM   #17
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Just keep away from the "W****!" water word! (Please.)
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Old 03-21-2019, 12:07 PM   #18
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Yes, but what have your international stocks/funds done for you lately?
I am a happy camper with Vanguard Index emerging markets fund..

YTD - 12%
10 yr - 8.9%
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Old 03-21-2019, 01:11 PM   #19
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Yes, but what have your international stocks/funds done for you lately?
Since the bottoming of world-wide markets in late Dec 2018, everything has been going up, and about the same percentage.

I have not written covered calls as aggressively on my international holdings as they were beaten down so bad last year and are still down far below the S&P.
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Old 03-21-2019, 01:12 PM   #20
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I think that anybody who assumes they can predict market moves, is "full of canal water" (as the saying goes).

I also think that anybody who sees the slightest relationship between anything short of 9/11 or TEOTWAWKI, and market moves, also falls in that category and is fooling nobody but himself.

Feel free to think the same of me; my intent is not to insult anybody but to just throw some cold water on all the crystal ball predictions in the media.


It is of course hard if not impossible to predict market future.

People cannot even agree on explanations for the market past performance, something that has already happened.
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