Mid-terms have been good for the market

[savory]

I just learned from a friend that since the 50s, the S&P has increased the year following the midterms. I can wait a few days

 

[24601NoMore]

I heard on one of the financial shows (can't remember which) that the average increase for the market in the year after the mid-terms is fifteen percent.


FWIW..

 

[savory]

I heard on one of the financial shows (can't remember which) that the average increase for the market in the year after the mid-terms is fifteen percent.


FWIW..

I tried to put the chart on my original post and still not sure I included the bar chart here. If so, it will speak for itself. If not, eyeballing it suggests 15% may not be a bad number.

 

[HFWR]

This time is different...

 

[NYEXPAT]

15% is if the current majority changes, it is 20% if the current majority stays in power. If we experience a 15% correction first, obviously it does not look so rosy!

 

[IMATERP]

This time is different...

It always is!

I

 

[target2019]

The last three results are most significant. The next column added will be close to 0.

 

[OldShooter]

The wonderful thing about computers, databases, and the internet is that tens of thousands of parameters can be surveyed quickly and some of them will be correlated with others. In addition to mid-term elections, those market results might also be positively correlated with things like the price of salt in Madagascar, tonnage of coal shipment from Australia to China, or to the appearance of El Niños in the Pacific. There are always correlations. Correlation, however, does not prove causality.

 

[Totoro]

Spurious Correlations

Given enough data, there's always a pattern. Humans especially are apt to see them where there's no actual predictive power to be found.

Unless we really believe that the per capita consumption of chicken is 90% correlated with total US crude imports.

 

[Gumby]

Unless we really believe that the per capita consumption of chicken is 90% correlated with total US crude imports.

Oh, come on. Everyone knows it is correlated with hemlines.