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More good news and hope re: the market recovery.
Old 05-14-2009, 08:18 AM   #1
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More good news and hope re: the market recovery.

From another thread that I may have slightly hijacked .......

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Originally Posted by Snidely Whiplash View Post
My reasoning for a quicker recovery than most expect would be:

(1) Montgomery's studies show we touch upon previous highs in relatively short order after a bear market trough - http://www.statefarm.com/_pdf/surviving_a_bear_market.pdf
The indices may not stay at those recovered levels, but it would at least give one a chance to re-evaluate / re-allocate resources.

(2) Although I'm not particularly fond of Ken Fisher, he makes some very good points here - Anticipate the V - Forbes.com
This very much looks like the start of a V recovery to me as evidenced by the extreme right side of this chart - .INX - S&P 500 INDEX - Google Finance

(3) The exceptionaly tremendous amount of stimulus we (country) have thrown at this recession has been historic in proportion. It has to have some affect. The after-affects (positive or negative) may be an issue down the road (time frame debatable).
And ................

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Originally Posted by Snidely Whiplash View Post
Oops, forgot one.......

(4) If you look at the return for the S&P 500 for the years after we suffer a major decline (ex. great depression, which I believe is NOT on the table) of more than 20% you see pretty decent returns.

1937 -32%
1938 +17%

1974 -26%
1975 +38%

2002 -22%
2003 +28%

For 2008 we were down 37%. And for 2009 we are just now even. This rally could be substantial and have quite a way more to go.
And yet one more to add...

(5) James Paulson can articulate the "green shoots" much better than I can and our correlation to a similar / earlier crisis and recovery. https://www.wellscap.com/docs/ecomon...date051109.pdf

I dont think we are nearly out of the woods yet, but I believe the end of the world is off of the table and recovery, even if it matches prior rates, will be much stronger than most expect.
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Old 05-14-2009, 11:05 AM   #2
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Be nice if a big rebound happens. However, my gut says otherwise. Of course that could be some gas.
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Old 05-14-2009, 11:50 AM   #3
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Be nice if a big rebound happens. However, my gut says otherwise. Of course that could be some gas.
Thanks for sharing that detail (gas) with us !
Call me a simple person, but the squiggles on the charts in short time ranges (less than 3 years) make me seasick. So I tend to ignore them. Overall trends are where the action is.

Great links, OP. TY
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Old 05-14-2009, 12:45 PM   #4
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I dont think we are nearly out of the woods yet, but I believe the end of the world is off of the table
My crystal ball says you may be right!
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