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Old 02-16-2016, 09:24 AM   #61
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I'm pretty sure you had other assets in your stash whose value was unaffected (or possibly made even more valuable) by the market crash.

Yep, a lot of rebalancing...
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Old 02-16-2016, 04:56 PM   #62
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2 straight trading days in the green!!! Who's worried now??
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Old 02-16-2016, 07:39 PM   #63
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I hope you are right, I just started shorting the S&P late Friday.
Well, I guess that is better than late Thursday.
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Old 02-16-2016, 08:47 PM   #64
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Share rout has further room to run, $2.4 trillion JPMorgan strategist says

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Don't be fooled into thinking the breather in sharemarkets means we've reached the bottom, says Marcella Chow, who watches the world's markets for JPMorgan Asset Management.
The global strategist for the $US1.7 trillion ($2.4 trillion) money manager says she's on edge, her clients are panicky and she's telling them to stash as much as 70 per cent of their money in bonds including US Treasuries. Calm won't return until China's economy improves and central banks regain credibility with investors, she said. She's waiting for oil to fall to as low as $US22 a barrel, and in the meantime she's battening down and trying to avoid volatility.
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Old 02-16-2016, 09:00 PM   #65
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So I lied about not being invested... My tiny portfolio has dropped by more than $1200 since last December. I'm trying to learn why.
Umm, markets go up and markets go down?

But to your broader point, while I can't predict every economic development that may seem relevant to an ADD addled trader or business reporter, I can predict one thing with absolute certainty: most everyone in the world economy is working hard to make things better tomorrow than they were yesterday. That's a simple idea worthy of investing in.
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Old 02-16-2016, 09:09 PM   #66
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I can predict one thing with absolute certainty: most everyone in the world economy is working hard to make things better tomorrow than they were yesterday.

Actually, I'm going to the gym tomorrow, and then I'm going to Starbucks for a coffee while I plan out my upcoming trips to Europe and SE Asia. But, yeah, as long as most everyone else is working hard tomorrow we should be fine. 😀


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Old 02-16-2016, 10:46 PM   #67
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The stock market is certain to go down soon. Unless it goes up. Or sideways for a while.


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Old 02-17-2016, 01:48 AM   #68
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The way I look at it 2008 was an odd blessing. It showed me that even if the (almost) worst happens, things straighten themselves out come back to an equilibrium pretty quickly.
So Ben Graham almost went bankrupt in the ‘30s, and this is an interesting point, I keep thinking about this all the time, so Ben Graham was reflecting in the ‘30s and he writes, if you were not bearish, if you're not concerned about the economy in 1925, not in 1927, 28, 29, but in 1925, there was only a 1/100 chance that you survived the depression, because what'd you have looked at was if you were not bearish in 1925, you'd have seen the crash in 1929, drop 50%, and you'd have come right in and thought of it as an opportunity, because the Dow Jones dropped from 400 to 200, went back up to 300, and the second leg after that was a killer, dropping about 90%!!

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Old 02-17-2016, 02:01 AM   #69
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I can predict one thing with absolute certainty: most everyone in the world economy is working hard to make things better tomorrow than they were yesterday.
Unfortunately, I believe the hard work of central bankers makes a better tomorrow less likely.
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Old 02-17-2016, 09:13 AM   #70
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Well, I guess that is better than late Thursday.
Imagine my surprise that the market has cobbled together a three day rally!
As of today's opening I am down 6.6% and can imagine further downside (for me) if the market can reach it's 50 day moving average.
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Old 02-17-2016, 09:21 AM   #71
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Amazing! The market just continues to soar upwards, up, up, and away!



I just love it when it does this.
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Old 02-17-2016, 09:32 AM   #72
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Watch it, W2R, - don't get premature on us!

Thanks much for the blast from the past!
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Old 02-17-2016, 09:56 AM   #73
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I have been watching the markets minute by minute lately. I can't help feeling like a huge crash is coming very soon, maybe next week. Why? Unexplained European bank weakness, China is collapsing, non-oil junk bonds VERY weak, gold exploding, NIRP end game for central banks shows no more bullets in the chamber, markets moving in ways not explained by the current news. When Fisher made his four hikes statement this was a signal that the Fed will collapse it.
I am still stunned by of this post, especially the timing. Maybe you are feeling better now but there are still 2.5 days left in the week! In any event I sure hope that I would have gotten out of equities before I came close to this level of anxiety.
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Old 02-17-2016, 10:02 AM   #74
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Watching the markets minute by minute, especially if you're looking for something in particular to happen, sounds crazymaking to me.
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Old 02-17-2016, 10:35 AM   #75
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I am still stunned by of this post, especially the timing. Maybe you are feeling better now but there are still 2.5 days left in the week! In any event I sure hope that I would have gotten out of equities before I came close to this level of anxiety.
He still could be right! But you're right too, that there is no need to be anxious about it. The market goes up, down, up, down, and so on, and we just have to grit our teeth and smile as we hang on for the rollercoaster ride.



I have the same feeling as jim584672 that we might be in for a big market crash. But so what? We know it's coming sometime, and if it's not now, then it will be later. Learning how to deal with crashes and bubbles is a learned skill, or at least was for me. Hanging around the ER Forum has helped many of us in learning this skill.
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Old 02-17-2016, 11:22 AM   #76
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The way I look at it 2008 was an odd blessing. It showed me that even if the (almost) worst happens, things straighten themselves out come back to an equilibrium pretty quickly.
Only continued data, over many cycles will confirm or refute this learning. "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" can turn out to be a plucky and profit making course, or a prelude to disaster.

Most of what we "learn" about markets is highly situational and time dependent, rather than reliable generalizations.

Ha
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Old 02-17-2016, 11:47 AM   #77
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The way I look at it 2008 was an odd blessing. It showed me that even if the (almost) worst happens, things straighten themselves out come back to an equilibrium pretty quickly.

As far as the current news cycle, things never turn out as dire as they're supposed to be and, as always, those with resources (financial or intellectual) find a way to prosper.

I'm always reminded of my notorious granddad who went out in the midst of the 1930 Depression and bought up foreclosed property.
Yes, things are usually never as good nor as bad as people think.

But when war breaks out, or REWahoo's asteroid strikes, all bets are off. The US has not had war on its ground since the Civil War, but most other countries are not so fortunate.

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Only continued data, over many cycles will confirm or refute this learning. "Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead" can turn out to be a plucky and profit making course, or a prelude to disaster.

Most of what we "learn" about markets is highly situational and time dependent, rather than reliable generalizations.

Ha
True too. As Bob Dylan has sung,

And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'
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Old 02-17-2016, 12:36 PM   #78
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Back in 1987 I decided to split my retirement saving in two and contribute to a deferred annuity for an income floor and put the rest Into mutual funds. 30 years latter and I just used the deferred annuity to buy into a pension. So the ups and downs of the market don't impact my income....just my net worth........and the plan has worked out well.
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Old 02-17-2016, 12:40 PM   #79
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I am not a perma bear at all. I hope I am wrong. Usually bear market rallies are sharp and last 2-3 weeks. Time will tell. To convince me I want to see new highs, which will not be a problem if this is still a bull market. Given the fragility of the world's monetary systems I hope the bear never comes.
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Old 02-17-2016, 01:13 PM   #80
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Watching the market minute by minute may be worse than w*rking.
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