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My personal stock picks for 2011
Old 12-20-2010, 11:13 AM   #1
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My personal stock picks for 2011

I get a bit tired of the Kramers and Codys with their exclusive reports (which are correct about as often as a coin flip).

I picked a few stocks I think will do well in 2011 and have invested some in all of them (no netflix or chipotle in these, although I use both of those services). Here they are:

SDRL
CNIT
VNDA
CHOP
MSFT

I put $10K in each, we shall see in dec 2011 if my research paid off. I would be happy with a 20% increase in each of them
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Old 12-20-2010, 11:24 AM   #2
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What were your picks for 2010?
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Old 12-20-2010, 11:43 AM   #3
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For 2010 I was invested in:

WMT
AAPL
MO
MCD
JNJ
MDT
PM
XOM

I did fair, but I think I chose a bit too much on value and not enough toward growth. I am going to try to go for more growth, fewer dividends in 2011 and see how that works out (although I am keeping my 2010 stocks also).
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Old 12-20-2010, 12:53 PM   #4
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Interesting - thanks for posting this!

I retired recently. I look for stocks that pay substantial (6%+ at time of purchase) dividends and also have capital gain potential. I mostly put them in my Roth IRA and IRA. I started doing this a couple of years ago and it has paid off well. I also have some speculative stuff but I put less money in that: CIM is very uncertain but pays 16% dividend yield at today's price.

I am currently in
ALSK
BPO
CIM
CPNO
CTL
CWH
EDE
EGOV
EPR
FGP
GE
MMLP
OLN
PBI
RAI
SBLK
SR
WWE

Also TIVO - Tivo is a capital gains hope - and it has been growing. I try to stay somewhat diversified.

Most of these I bought at substantially lower prices than today's price. The exceptions are CWH and SBLK - but the dividends make up for the slight price drop.
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Old 12-20-2010, 01:10 PM   #5
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Holy crap, I really like WWE

I never even thought about investing in that, but look at those financials! 10% divy, large cash reserve, little debt.

I am going to seriously consider that one, thanks!
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Old 12-20-2010, 03:44 PM   #6
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Holy crap, I really like WWE

I never even thought about investing in that, but look at those financials! 10% divy, large cash reserve, little debt.

I am going to seriously consider that one, thanks!
You're welcome - but I must ask: is it the spandex? ("Holy crap, I really like WWE")

I like the dividend. A lot.

Check FGP - the price is high right now (relative to its range) but it doesn't seem to be dropping. If the price goes down, it pays a great dividend. No info indicating change in that.
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Old 12-20-2010, 04:02 PM   #7
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My stock picks for 2011 are

LEI
SSN
MHR

I guess my theme for 2011 is oil. Regardless of what the price of oil does, new production will move these small E&P companies higher. Also like Citibank for 2011.

My high Yielders are PSEC, RSO and I just started a position in GABUX.

The rest of my Dividend stocks are MO, PM, DUK, BBEP and NYB.

Most of our money is still in Index Funds via our TSP and the Contra Fund.
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Old 12-20-2010, 04:15 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by jimnjana View Post
My stock picks for 2011 are

LEI
SSN
MHR

I guess my theme for 2011 is oil. Regardless of what the price of oil does, new production will move these small E&P companies higher. Also like Citibank for 2011.

My high Yielders are PSEC, RSO and I just started a position in GABUX.

The rest of my Dividend stocks are MO, PM, DUK, BBEP and NYB.

Most of our money is still in Index Funds via our TSP and the Contra Fund.
Yikes! LEI and SSN are teeny tiny, how did you find them and what makes them attractive? (not saying they aren't, just that I have never invested in quite that small of a company).

MHR is bigger, but it's market cap is now approaching the level of proven reserves times $80 a barrel. Looks great if you bought for a buck (now worth $6), but can it double from there?

PSEC and RSO have great yields, but I have not looked into REITs to understand the risk/reward.

I also own MO and PM and love them.

Thanks!
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Old 12-20-2010, 04:28 PM   #9
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I will toss out NNA, CHK, JQC and perhaps CHMT. All stuff I think is quite cheap. Yields range from zip to almost 8%. Valuation uber alles.

Had they not started to run, I would add LOW and AXL to the list. I still think they are quite timely, but are not at the giveaway prices of the first 4.
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Old 12-20-2010, 05:43 PM   #10
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You will say I am crazy but ...

... starting at the end of June I kept buying and selling MSFT. I noticed the stock kept going down then up; down then up; repeatedly. I have now bought and sold 4 times for a total of 14.5%. Each individual purchase was around $10-12k and averaged over 3% after holding the stock for about 3 weeks. It is in the 401k so no capital gains/tax hassles. I have never done this before - but so far it is fun and successful.
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Old 12-20-2010, 05:57 PM   #11
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... starting at the end of June I kept buying and selling MSFT. I noticed the stock kept going down then up; down then up; repeatedly. I have now bought and sold 4 times for a total of 14.5%. Each individual purchase was around $10-12k and averaged over 3% after holding the stock for about 3 weeks. It is in the 401k so no capital gains/tax hassles. I have never done this before - but so far it is fun and successful.
Heh heh, yes, I did the exact same thing, starting when the MSFT shares were trading at a ridiculous $23. The difference is that I bought Jan 2011 calls instead of actual shares, and so leveraged the small ups and downs much more. I increased my little IRA balance from $15,000 to over $51,000 by doing this several times, although I believe Balmers tax motivated? sells kept me from an additional $20,000 or so. I was holding 150 contracts for Jan 11 $25 calls purchased at $1 each when the stock blew through earnings in October and was expecting the stock to keep moving up to $28+ but Balmer started selling like a madman.

I converted $5000 over to a Roth and purchased 25 July 2011 $27 calls for $1.98. My hope is to sell them at $4.50 after Jan earnings and have a $11,000 Roth for a converstion tax cost on only $5000. If it fails utterly, I will simply convert the Roth back to IRA and owe no taxes.

I am really really liking Seadrill (SDRL). I kind of wish I had purchased more than $10,000 of it friday, as it is up about 4% today. Great looking company, Norwegian run so they know the ocean. Pays a nice divy too! If it drops back down to $32 I may get another $10K. This is in my taxable account so I really just want a stock to buy and hold.
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Old 12-20-2010, 06:00 PM   #12
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Yikes! LEI and SSN are teeny tiny, how did you find them and what makes them attractive? (not saying they aren't, just that I have never invested in quite that small of a company).

MHR is bigger, but it's market cap is now approaching the level of proven reserves times $80 a barrel. Looks great if you bought for a buck (now worth $6), but can it double from there?

PSEC and RSO have great yields, but I have not looked into REITs to understand the risk/reward.

I also own MO and PM and love them.

Thanks!
Best Oil ETF’s & Best Oil Stocks Intelligent Speculator Found them on this list, disclaimer I do not subscribe to this just found it searching for oil and gas plays earlier in year. Both LEI and SSN have short term expected announcements that will boost share price. LEI is announcing another Joint Venture according to the CEO. SSN is expected to announce fracting status of two completed wells. Both companies have small floats and additional wells coming on line. MHR CEO is known for building another E&P company into a multi billion dollar company and has intentions on doing the same with MHR. MHR has wells, pipeline and is building a NG processing plant.

I also have CHK, SD, AXAS, TGC and PMGYF.PK.
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Old 12-20-2010, 07:06 PM   #13
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Heh heh, yes, I did the exact same thing, starting when the MSFT shares were trading at a ridiculous $23. The difference is that I bought Jan 2011 calls instead of actual shares, and so leveraged the small ups and downs much more. I increased my little IRA balance from $15,000 to over $51,000 by doing this several times.
Wow, that is incredible. I will need to read up on calls. Sounds like that might be a better option (no puns intended).
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Old 12-20-2010, 07:40 PM   #14
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Wow, that is incredible. I will need to read up on calls. Sounds like that might be a better option (no puns intended).
Well, it makes things a lot more volatile (good) but increases your risk (bad) because the pesky time value of the option is always decreasing. I offset some of that by buying enough in the money and far enough out that I don't pay too much time value vs intrinsic value and I have enough time to weather a small downturn (such as Balmer selling in November). The hard part is knowing when to hold them and know when to fold them. For example, recently I had 200 Jan 11 $26 contracts purchased at $1.15. I got nervous and excited when the stock broke $27.50 and sold all of the contracts at $1.82, only to watch the contract price climb to $2.12 the next day. So I ended up with 36,400 instead of 42,400. And it will probably get worse, as I expect a run up to $29 or so in early Jan, which would make the options worth at least $3 each and means the 200 contracts would have made me $60,000. Ah well, bird in the hand and all that. I still have the 25 contracts for July 2011 $27 calls in the new Roth to look foward to cashing in.

Edit: I should add that this is totally in my "play money" super high risk account started with only $1700. I am forbidden by the wife (and some sanity) to trade options in any of our other accounts, so I just look for good dividend paying stocks there.
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Old 12-20-2010, 08:31 PM   #15
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Thanks for that explanation. Hmmmm .... when it works it is really good. But there is that "risk" thing. I also appreciate the edit about the "play money" account. Looks like you are doing very well with that account.
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Old 12-20-2010, 09:32 PM   #16
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... starting at the end of June I kept buying and selling MSFT. I noticed the stock kept going down then up; down then up; repeatedly. I have now bought and sold 4 times for a total of 14.5%. Each individual purchase was around $10-12k and averaged over 3% after holding the stock for about 3 weeks. It is in the 401k so no capital gains/tax hassles. I have never done this before - but so far it is fun and successful.

Did the same with OVTI cept traded it well over 100 times throughout the year. Most profitable year ever in the stk mkt. No tax; 401K, Roth, and previous losses in taxable account. Trade LVS for gas money.
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Old 12-20-2010, 11:33 PM   #17
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No gold stocks, 79protons?
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Old 12-21-2010, 05:58 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by Earl E Retyre View Post
Thanks for that explanation. Hmmmm .... when it works it is really good. But there is that "risk" thing. I also appreciate the edit about the "play money" account. Looks like you are doing very well with that account.
Leverage cuts both ways. I buy options from time to time, but I keep it small (1% max) and I mentally kiss every dollar I spend goodbye when I click the buy button.
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Old 12-21-2010, 06:12 AM   #19
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No gold stocks, 79protons?
mine is MDW. Another small company...this one has the gold in the ground, just needs to finalize production deal...
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Old 12-21-2010, 07:52 AM   #20
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I recently have begun to add the following companies to my dividend paying stock portfolio:

ADP
AEP
JNJ
LLTC
MMP
MMC
PG
VE
WMT
WM
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