Name an arcane industry

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 That 'brilliant' hedge fund manager is losing his bet to Warren Buffet, who just stuck his money in the S&P 500.

His bet is against a fund of hedge funds. That's how most of these studies were conducted - an index against the average whoever/whatever. The best few of the bunch will beat the index. In the case of funds, for example, about 8% beat the index. I'd like to see him challenge a single fund with a good track record.

[RetiredGypsy]

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

Probably more your style.

[Lakewood90712]

Financial Advisory or maybe...... a Shoeshine stand Franchise

[pb4uski]

Buggy whips is the classic.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho His bet is against a fund of hedge funds. That's how most of these studies were conducted - an index against the average whoever/whatever. The best few of the bunch will beat the index. In the case of funds, for example, about 8% beat the index. I'd like to see him challenge a single fund with a good track record.

Over a 10 year period? Show me this list of funds that beat the market over a 10 year period, and the universe they are picked from, so we have a %.

And then why the heck did the hedge 'fund of funds' take the bet?

-ERD50

[ls99]

Artificial race horse insemination.

[Nemo2]

"Arcane? How about building a big boat to take all the animals in the world and......" "What's that?" "Oops sorry, spelling error."

[Boho]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 Over a 10 year period? Show me this list of funds that beat the market over a 10 year period, and the universe they are picked from, so we have a %.

No, I was referring to the SPIVA Scorecard. It doesn't look at the track records, just the percentage of funds that beat the index for the year. For a bet I'd do further research and choose a fund with a good track record.

Marketwatch says managed funds perform even better than that:

‘Index funds beat active 90% of the time.’ Really?

Quote:

During the two bull periods, the index outperformed 80% and 63% of its peers. However, during the down market cycles (bear), the index beat only 34% and 38% of its active management competitors. This is one of the most consistent conclusions we have seen in this and other studies — that active managers, in the aggregate, are effective in curbing some of the losses in the worst of times.

Quote:

And then why the heck did the hedge 'fund of funds' take the bet?

I think a guy chose 100 hedge funds and he obviously had some reason to believe he'd win. I think stuff goes on with hedge funds that isn't even allowed for mutual funds. I don't know statistics on them.

...I'm increasingly thinking investors should go lighter on the bonds and concentrate on value and managed funds to deal with volatility.

[Texas Proud]

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski Buggy whips is the classic.

Dag nabbit.... that is what I was going to say

[NW-Bound]

Anything that I have not been personally involved with is arcane.

I often see stock recommendation for mid-sized companies, and don't really know what they do even after looking them up on the Web. And then, while traveling, driving through the country, past small towns, little hamlets, I constantly wonder what these people do for a living. There are businesses, factories all along the highways. What could they be doing? It's a mystery.

I recall reading something about big corporations getting a lot of publicity, but actually employing less than 1/2 of all workers. Much of the rest are out there doing some arcane stuff, I guess.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho No, I was referring to the SPIVA Scorecard. It doesn't look at the track records, just the percentage of funds that beat the index for the year. For a bet I'd do further research and choose a fund with a good track record. ...

Well if only 8% beat in a single year (edit - I see that is a five year time frame - still, 8% is pretty rare, and fewer will do it over a 10 year period). You gotta be pretty lucky to find the right one. I'm not sure what skill could be involved in predicting the future.

Hmmm, find the arcane investment that is on the cusp of producing a future predictor. If the prototype works, they will use it to predict how well they will do buying funds that only go up, that they will not want to let you in on the deal!

-ERD50

[pb4uski]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 .....That 'brilliant' hedge fund manager is losing his bet to Warren Buffet, who just stuck his money in the S&P 500. ....

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho His bet is against a fund of hedge funds. That's how most of these studies were conducted - an index against the average whoever/whatever. The best few of the bunch will beat the index. In the case of funds, for example, about 8% beat the index. I'd like to see him challenge a single fund with a good track record.

Proetge could have picked a single fund, but chose to pick five fund of funds but even a single fund with good record would likely be losing given hedge funds intrinsic disadvantage (high fees) and the fact that VFIAX (the fund Buffett picked) has been on a tear since 2008.

Also see: Why Warren Buffett Is Winning His $1 Million Bet Against Hedge Funds | Fortune.com

FWIW, VFIAX has also outperformed BRK.A since 1/1/2008 too (but not by a lot).

[Boho]

I may look into this:

Flame Retardant Market worth 12.81 Billion USD by 2021

Quote:

...The global flame retardants market is projected to reach USD 12.81 Billion by 2021 at a CAGR of 6.4% between 2016 and 2021. The market is majorly driven by growth of the end-use industries and increasing fire safety regulations...Aluminum Trihydrate to dominate the flame retardants market...Asia-Pacific is projected to register the highest growth

That website has lots more, but it's made for investors so it's not like I'd be the only one reading it.

http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/new-reports.html

[cooch96]

Tort law, desalinization plants, custom knitted hosiery, rare earth mining, metallurgy (especially titanium refining and smelting), lost energy capture turbines, generation IV fission plants, fusion plants, 3D printing, Atkinson and Miller cycle ICE, preferred stock and baby bond investing...

These are some of the industries that fascinate me and all I get are blank looks when I try to bring them up in conversation. But there are threads on this very site about a couple of them.

And I'd like to emphasize the ICE. It looks like we're still twenty+ years of steady improvements. I just saw articles this month about a new (non wankel) rotary engine and Mazda thinks it can make a gas engine that doesn't need spark plugs.

Good luck figuring out which technology will prove superior and smother the others.

[Lakewood90712]

Cold Fusion...(Bubbles in a Mason Jar)

" I swear, it's creating energy, I saw it on the meters. We just need a few million more $ to make it practical "

[Boho]

On a recent episode of Jay Leno's Garage he had a guy with a 3D printer that made things out of different metals. Each part made costs thousands of dollars and Jay said he'll be referring a lot of people to him. If the company seemed to have decent prospects without that I'd buy based on that but I looked it up and something bothered me. It could have been a lucky find though.

I should probably go to a big library and look at obscure trade journals.

Here's an interesting critical article about one $5,216 report from that marketsandmarkets website that I linked to above. I'm glad I'm willing to do my own research.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boho His bet is against a fund of hedge funds. That's how most of these studies were conducted - an index against the average whoever/whatever. The best few of the bunch will beat the index. In the case of funds, for example, about 8% beat the index. I'd like to see him challenge a single fund with a good track record.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pb4uski Proetge could have picked a single fund, but chose to pick five fund of funds but even a single fund with good record would likely be losing given hedge funds intrinsic disadvantage (high fees) and the fact that VFIAX (the fund Buffett picked) has been on a tear since 2008. Also see: Why Warren Buffett Is Winning His $1 Million Bet Against Hedge Funds | Fortune.com FWIW, VFIAX has also outperformed BRK.A since 1/1/2008 too (but not by a lot).

An update just came out, and this time they break out the best and worst funds within those funds (and it ain't pretty, if you are a hedge fund manager!):

Warren Buffett Says He's Winning Hedge Fund Bet | Fortune.com

Quote:

And the envelope, please? After nine years, the index fund has registered a compounded annual increase of 7.1%. And the average for the five funds (whose names have never been made public) is 2.2%. In total gains, the index fund is up 85.4%. The average gain of the five funds is 22%. (The best performer of the five is up 62.8%. The worst performer—over nine years, remember—has been mind-bendingly bad: up only 2.9%.)

Yeah, he should have just picked one fund, that's the ticket!

-ERD50

[pb4uski]

Boho's batting average is pretty poor... I'm starting to think he really is a troll.

[Amethyst]

People who produce specialty items for the arts and crafts markets. For example, there are quite a few people who hand-dye fibers (silk thread and ribbon, mostly) for embroidery. There are people who buy stamping and scrapbooking supplies, then pretty-package them for resale to the 40-70 female market. I didn't realize what a big deal scrapbooking was, till I visited a lady who had an entire room converted to cubbies-on-the-wall for her immense collection of supplies.

Thing is, these businesses all sell on Etsy and I don't think there are likely to be any IPO's in this industry.

[MRG]

Typewriter repair is under appreciated.