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Old 06-08-2016, 02:00 AM   #41
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I would like to liquidate a small percentage of the portfolio this year, ( maybe 1-2%) Watching the markets closely and if they rise another 3-4% will pull the trigger.
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Old 06-08-2016, 06:37 AM   #42
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Continue the ride by all means.

Though it's always moved in fits and starts, isn't the market supposed to hit new highs ongoing? Hasn't it always hit new highs, in the USA at least? There have been hundreds of new highs in the past 10 years, do you wish you'd gotten out - and when would you have "rejoined" with confidence?

Charts like this make you think we're due for at least another 7 years of ~flatness in the cumulative return.

On wait - the chart ends at 2009, we're half way through 2016. So that's the 7 more years. So we could take off any year now, or not for another 9!
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Old 06-08-2016, 06:40 AM   #43
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I would like to liquidate a small percentage of the portfolio this year, ( maybe 1-2%) Watching the markets closely and if they rise another 3-4% will pull the trigger.
Can't you do this automatically by letting all dividends/distributions go to cash?
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Old 06-08-2016, 08:37 AM   #44
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Lots of cocky investors? Why not? Election year to elect a new queen or king. A timid Fed. Low low rates Walmart style.
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Old 06-08-2016, 09:34 AM   #45
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Election year. Brexit. Fed hikes.
What could go wrong?

Riding it out though.
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Old 06-08-2016, 10:03 AM   #46
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Same as it ever was
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Old 06-08-2016, 12:11 PM   #47
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Lots of cocky investors? Why not? Election year to elect a new queen or king. A timid Fed. Low low rates Walmart style.
I'd consider someone who thinks they can consistently time the market "cocky." Hopefully there will always be new highs...
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Old 06-08-2016, 11:58 PM   #48
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I'd consider someone who thinks they can consistently time the market "cocky." Hopefully there will always be new highs...
George Soros is now short the S&P500, and has taken the reins over again at his hedge fund. The last time he personally took over trading in the hedge fund was in 2007 when he believed the housing market would cause financial chaos and his fund made a billion dollars. Cocky certainly defines him.

I am getting close to returning to a 25% level of stocks from the 35% that I increased to in February, VTI being up about 11.5% since I moved into that ETF in Feb. There are increasing number of very smart people I follow who are getting more and more worried about the financial markets.
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Old 06-09-2016, 08:48 AM   #49
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I would like to liquidate a small percentage of the portfolio this year, ( maybe 1-2%) Watching the markets closely and if they rise another 3-4% will pull the trigger.
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Can't you do this automatically by letting all dividends/distributions go to cash?
I think Danmar's investments are individual stocks and not MFs.
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Old 06-09-2016, 09:40 AM   #50
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I'd consider someone who thinks they can consistently time the market "cocky." Hopefully there will always be new highs...
I don't think anyone here advocates market timing. I surely don't!

But the problem with market timing is that once in a while...it works. When it does, it just fuels the idea that it can be done consistently.
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Old 06-09-2016, 12:19 PM   #51
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S&P has returned 1.3% annualized the last 15 years. So when someone says sell & buy what you could say bonds cash real estate or whatever. What will the next 15 years bring? Who knows but wall st & the fraudulent financial system seems anything but a sure bet. Reward free risk for the next 15 years would surprise the majority of investors I'm sure.
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Old 06-09-2016, 04:49 PM   #52
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S&P has returned 1.3% annualized the last 15 years. So when someone says sell & buy what you could say bonds cash real estate or whatever. What will the next 15 years bring? Who knows but wall st & the fraudulent financial system seems anything but a sure bet. Reward free risk for the next 15 years would surprise the majority of investors I'm sure.
You fail to say that 1.32 is return Adjusted for Inflation and not counting dividends.

I will recompute with Dividends reinvested, not adjust for inflation and I will get 5.4% annual return in same 15 year period. You would had done much better if you had Mid Caps, Small Caps and a bit of International exposure during those 15 years.

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
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Old 06-09-2016, 05:12 PM   #53
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30 year treasury bond yield May 2001 was 5.78%. With 15 years remaining. Seems like a better choice.
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Old 06-09-2016, 05:16 PM   #54
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30 year treasury bond yield May 2001 was 5.78%. With 15 years remaining. Seems like a better choice.
But I will pay no taxes on dividends up to 92k of income and if I mix in Small Caps and Mid Caps I will earn more than 6%.
That is 6.25% with low taxes

https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/

And hold those bonds for 15 more years and let us see what happens in environment of rising rates.
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Old 06-09-2016, 05:31 PM   #55
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I've reallocated about 7% over to bond funds for the summer...
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Old 06-09-2016, 05:56 PM   #56
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Folks, I don't mean to sound like a downer, but we've been here before. We are hitting the same DJIA 18,000 ceiling we have been hitting which was set at the end of 2014. The question is, will we break the ceiling finally to create a new resistance line?
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Old 06-09-2016, 06:46 PM   #57
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Sticking with my asset allocation. I'm not good at market timing.

And since my BIL (who makes a lot of bad market timing moves) just told me that "a guy" told him to sell because the market was going to crash this fall.... I have more reason to stay the course. He's definitely a contrarian signal.
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Old 06-09-2016, 07:28 PM   #58
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Continue the ride by all means...
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Charts like this make you think we're due for at least another 7 years of ~flatness in the cumulative return.

On wait - the chart ends at 2009, we're half way through 2016. So that's the 7 more years. So we could take off any year now, or not for another 9!
I was just thinking the same thing when looking at this chart, except that I wonder if we are not due for more than 17 years of lousy returns since 2000.

See, in the past the bear periods were always longer than the bull periods. So, as we had 17 years of exceptional performance in 1982-2000, perhaps we need to suffer 25 years of lousy performance to pay for this sin (1000% cumulative return!). Fundamentally, this multi-decade bear period could be the result of P/E contraction as many pundits fear.

Aye, aye, aye... Could be another 10 years of up/down but getting nowhere.

Early SS, here I come.

PS. Oh, and then when the 25-year period of famine ends, an asteroid may just hit earth and put us all out of our misery.
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Old 06-09-2016, 07:59 PM   #59
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I was just thinking the same thing when looking at this chart, except that I wonder if we are not due for more than 17 years of lousy returns since 2000.

See, in the past the bear periods were always longer than the bull periods. So, as we had 17 years of exceptional performance in 1982-2000, perhaps we need to suffer 25 years of lousy performance to pay for this sin (1000% cumulative return!). Fundamentally, this multi-decade bear period could be the result of P/E contraction as many pundits fear.

Aye, aye, aye... Could be another 10 years of up/down but getting nowhere.

Early SS, here I come.

PS. Oh, and then when the 25-year period of famine ends, an asteroid may just hit earth and put us all out of our misery.
Dunno, such unbounded optimism is hard to resist...
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Old 06-09-2016, 08:15 PM   #60
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Your BIL is due to be right. Stall st could be Fall st. Ive got skin in the game but I dont trust these banker b*sturds not to steer us into the rocks again.
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