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Old 06-09-2016, 08:53 PM   #61
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Better get your skin out of the game then before it hits the grinder.
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Old 06-10-2016, 06:20 AM   #62
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Thick skin. Grinder resistant.
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Old 06-10-2016, 09:10 AM   #63
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Old 06-10-2016, 12:08 PM   #64
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Or, we could rely on a rhyme, if only I could recall which one is always correct.

sell in May - then go away
sell in June - before the swoon
sell in July - don't ask why
sell in August - before it go bust
LOL .... all I'm sure of is that it'll be higher in 10+ years when I think about drawing on it
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Old 06-10-2016, 12:30 PM   #65
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Your BIL is due to be right. Stall st could be Fall st. Ive got skin in the game but I dont trust these banker b*sturds not to steer us into the rocks again.
Why are you still in the game if you don't trust the players?
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Old 06-10-2016, 12:55 PM   #66
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But I will pay no taxes on dividends up to 92k of income and if I mix in Small Caps and Mid Caps I will earn more than 6%.
That is 6.25% with low taxes

https://dqydj.com/wilshire-5000-return-calculator/

And hold those bonds for 15 more years and let us see what happens in environment of rising rates.
Huh, explain the no taxes on dividends.


I saw a brief scrawl on CNBC that small investors are making withdrawals from equity funds and buying bond funds?
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Old 06-10-2016, 12:57 PM   #67
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Qualified dividends get special tax treatment.
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Old 06-10-2016, 01:46 PM   #68
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Huh, explain the no taxes on dividends.


I saw a brief scrawl on CNBC that small investors are making withdrawals from equity funds and buying bond funds?
Well compute taxes on 92k of income coming from qualified dividends.

Assuming this is all your income you (Married Couple) will pay 0 in Federal Taxes. Now if you feed into calculator 92k of Bond Interest you will pay 10k in Taxes .
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/tax_calculator.htm

And this kind of income is pretty much what you get from buy and hold of Equity Index ETFs. There will be maybe 10% in non qualified dividends and there will be Foreign Tax Credit on International ETFs. So you may end up with some negligible tax.
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Old 06-10-2016, 01:52 PM   #69
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Hmm, I don't have any ETFs but individual equities and index funds.

Had more than this in dividends and cap gains distributions, mostly from equity index funds as a single filer.

I certainly paid taxes, though a lot of this dividend and cap gains distributions included no tax bond funds.
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Old 06-10-2016, 02:01 PM   #70
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I saw a brief scrawl on CNBC that small investors are making withdrawals from equity funds and buying bond funds?
95% of small investors will make maybe half of what ETFs that they buy make .

You know that is called Investor return versus Fund Return. That is because they always move money around following each other as a flock of sheep.
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Old 06-10-2016, 02:56 PM   #71
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My IRA is invested in Realty Income Corporation whose share value has gone far beyond what I would pay for it. I sold just enough to meet my MRD today.

My practice is to re-invest dividends but am beginning to consider dividends to cash and await retrenchment of stock price when interest rates go up. Hummm.....
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Old 06-10-2016, 03:32 PM   #72
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95% of small investors will make maybe half of what ETFs that they buy make .

You know that is called Investor return versus Fund Return. That is because they always move money around following each other as a flock of sheep.
But hasn't some market experts been saying market can't sustain upwards until the small or retail investors return?

And that they haven't really returned since the 2008 crash?
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Old 06-10-2016, 03:37 PM   #73
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Part of my monthly buy kicked in today. 25 shares of DVY at 84. Typically, I buy ~$12k a month, so I have a few more shares to go. I have a few more triggers/limit orders to go next week.

I was buying IVV, but since I am closer to FIRE, I am doing DVY. It should be less volatile, and produce a few ore dividends. I do not have much in terms of bonds, so I concentrate on DVY.

In a few years, I will concentrate on Bonds. All my dividends can go to them.
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Old 06-10-2016, 04:03 PM   #74
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But hasn't some market experts been saying market can't sustain upwards until the small or retail investors return?

And that they haven't really returned since the 2008 crash?
I heard something along the lines that retail investors are still scared and it will take long time before they return.

They will probably return at euphoric peek of secular bull market. Contrarian sign to get out or at least not put new money into the market. Right now we do not see euphoric peek. So maybe we will have cyclical bear but hopefully within secular bull market.

But on long enough run all bear market are cyclical within one 200 year secular bull market.
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Old 06-10-2016, 05:42 PM   #75
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Just because I dont trust the players doesnt mean I wont play the game. It just means I play more carefully. Like playing football against a dirty player. Theres certain things you wont do. Certain risks you wont take that you would normally take. The banking system abandoned normal conduct & the spirit of fair play. Of course some people think there are no rules.
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Old 06-10-2016, 06:28 PM   #76
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I think the banking system learned it's lesson. I don't worry about that anymore.
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Old 06-10-2016, 06:32 PM   #77
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"The best investors in the world all have one thing in common they have a well defined plan that they stick with through thick and thin. This plan serves as a north star regardless of where they are along the investment journey."

= Cullen Roche
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:23 PM   #78
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I think everyone learned the same lesson. If your big enough & have friends in high places you can get away with anything.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:30 PM   #79
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But "zero down home loans no credit check needed" is a thing of the past.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:34 PM   #80
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Car loans & credit card debt is on the same path as sub prime house loans. Public debt has no limit.
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