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Old 06-10-2016, 07:40 PM   #81
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Cars are easy to repo and resell, just tow 'em away.
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Old 06-10-2016, 07:54 PM   #82
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Houses are easily shuttered & bulldozed or placed on the feds mythical balance sheet. Pretty soon no one will feel they have to pay for anything. I guess were gonna find out if business can exist & prosper in an environment where accountability is not as high a priority as it should be. I'm just not as optimistic as some people.
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Old 06-10-2016, 08:26 PM   #83
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I guess not.

I lived right next to it. Next door neighbor sold pretty near the peak, he and his wife broke up. House was bought by a "flipper", lived there for 6 months, painted and remodeled and sold to some people that didn't appear to have jobs.

They were gone in 4 months and the "bank owned" sign went up. It was empty for a year and a half and sold for less than half the "peak price"

Yup, right next door. Not worried -
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Old 06-10-2016, 09:24 PM   #84
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I really want to see the Dow go above 20,000.

Not that I'd pull the trigger, but I want to see it. We've been waiting so long and it just never gets very far above 18,000 before it heads back down. Time for a strong, unidirectional SURGE upwards! C'mon, Dow, I want to see those numbers soar.




Well, saying that about guaranteed that they won't....
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Old 06-10-2016, 09:26 PM   #85
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Looks like there's strong resistance at 18000. It just touched it and then two straight days down and now about 200 points below it.

Oil must have gotten ahead of itself. It finished above $50 earlier in the week. Then dropped and today the alert I got on my iPhone said increased rig count. So the oil companies are increasing production or something?
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Old 06-10-2016, 10:27 PM   #86
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Oil must have gotten ahead of itself. It finished above $50 earlier in the week. Then dropped and today the alert I got on my iPhone said increased rig count. So the oil companies are increasing production or something?
The oil companies are selling all the oil they can just like they always have done.
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Old 06-11-2016, 06:16 AM   #87
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My equity allocation is a bit below target, so let it ride.
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Old 06-11-2016, 06:47 AM   #88
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The oil companies are selling all the oil they can just like they always have done.
Is shale ramping up again? I thought they had marginal production costs of ~$35, so if oil is $50 they would restart?
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Old 06-11-2016, 07:29 AM   #89
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Charts like this make you think we're due for at least another 7 years of ~flatness in the cumulative return.

On wait - the chart ends at 2009, we're half way through 2016. So that's the 7 more years. So we could take off any year now, or not for another 9!
Oh yeah, I'm totally going to make big decisions based on exactly 4 times we had surges and 3 times of extended flatness. That really isn't a lot of data. Staying the course....
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Old 06-11-2016, 01:06 PM   #90
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I really want to see the Dow go above 20,000.

Not that I'd pull the
trigger, but I want to see it.
Well it got pretty close a few days ago but pulled back.

You must not be in a buying mode.
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Old 06-11-2016, 02:18 PM   #91
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Well it got pretty close a few days ago but pulled back.

You must not be in a buying mode.
You're right. I'm in the mode of wanting to look at my portfolio size and cheer!


Edited to add: When I did that in my 2007 "Wheee!!" thread, those in buying mode seemed pretty glad that I did, though. So, I guess it's all good...
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Old 06-11-2016, 04:55 PM   #92
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Oh yeah, I'm totally going to make big decisions based on exactly 4 times we had surges and 3 times of extended flatness. That really isn't a lot of data. Staying the course....
Mine was tongue in cheek in case you didn't get that.....
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Old 06-11-2016, 05:35 PM   #93
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Is shale ramping up again? I thought they had marginal production costs of ~$35, so if oil is $50 they would restart?
There are 3,500 drilled but not yet completed wells in the U.S. at the moment. To complete these wells, most will need topside equipment such as storage tanks, heaters, separators, etc. installed. Then they will need to be fracced. Produced gas will need pipeline equipment and sales points; water will need to find appropriate disposal facilities. It's not like turning on your home sprinkler system.

My gut feeling is some of these wells will come back online to replace wells that have tapered off production. Many of these crude oil wells are in the shale plays but a good number are in West Texas (Permian) and Colorado (Niobrara).

Lifting costs vary by producer and I have seen as low as $15/bbl in West Texas this year on a project I had worked on. North Dakota wells are the most expensive due primarily to transportation costs of up to $11/bbl to Philadelphia refineries where some contracts were given.

I suspect that producers will bring on wells as needed to replace existing production and that will be it for the foreseeable future. Increasing production is not cost effective when crude can be imported for less than drilling/completing in the U.S. One good thing is that well service costs are dropping like a rock due to this pullback. It cost a lot less to frac a well than it did two years ago.

When our U.S. based producers will enter into large scale drilling programs to increase production significantly is something only seen in a working crystal ball right now.
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Old 06-11-2016, 07:07 PM   #94
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Mine was tongue in cheek in case you didn't get that.....
I did. Had intended to put a smiley after the first sentence, but it looks like I didn't.....
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Old 06-11-2016, 07:11 PM   #95
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Tongue in cheek or not, we are going to suffer...
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Old 06-11-2016, 07:37 PM   #96
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I did. Had intended to put a smiley after the first sentence, but it looks like I didn't.....
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Old 06-11-2016, 08:00 PM   #97
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I really want to see the Dow go above 20,000.

Not that I'd pull the trigger, but I want to see it. We've been waiting so long and it just never gets very far above 18,000 before it heads back down. Time for a strong, unidirectional SURGE upwards! C'mon, Dow, I want to see those numbers soar.




Well, saying that about guaranteed that they won't....
If you don't mind, could you please do some research on the proper term to use for the right Dow up effect? After all, your calls with the W.... term have been nothing short of spectacular in the opposite direction so, as Audrey suggested elsewhere, could you please work on the proper anti-W...
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Old 06-11-2016, 08:06 PM   #98
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If you don't mind, could you please do some research on the proper term to use for the right Dow up effect? After all, your calls with the W.... term have been nothing short of spectacular in the opposite direction so, as Audrey suggested elsewhere, could you please work on the proper anti-W...
I'll get right on it!

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Old 06-12-2016, 11:40 AM   #99
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I looked again & even with dividends reinvested the s&p 500 returned 3.2% inflation adjusted annual return. Not 5.4%. From May 2001 to May 2016. So a 30 year treasury destroyed the stock market on risk adjusted basis for that 15 year period. Not to good.
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Old 06-12-2016, 06:02 PM   #100
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30 year treasury bond yield May 2001 was 5.78%. With 15 years remaining. Seems like a better choice.
Hindsight is 20/20. OK, I'll bite.... what percentage of YOUR portfolio is 30 year treasury bonds?
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