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Old 07-14-2017, 07:01 PM   #21
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I don't get this obsession with new highs. Just about everyone who invests in equities expects prices to be higher in the future, and the greater the time horizon, the higher the price. That means continuous new highs. Seems to me that the lack of new highs is more notable and newsworthy.
+1

I recall, years ago, my co-workers were going on and on about a streak of new market highs. I was ho-hum, we expect the market to go up on average, if it were not for volatility, we would have a new high every single day.

I got a reply that reminded me of the scene from "This is Spinal Tap"... "but, these go to eleven!".

"But, the market hit a new high!"

-ERD50
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Old 07-14-2017, 07:16 PM   #22
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But there are still places where real estate is cheap Detroit, Flint, Eureka,NV and Austin NV (places that still have some population) let alone in ghost towns.
Even the dumb money reads the newspapers.
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Old 07-14-2017, 10:13 PM   #23
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I don't get this obsession with new highs. Just about everyone who invests in equities expects prices to be higher in the future, and the greater the time horizon, the higher the price. That means continuous new highs. Seems to me that the lack of new highs is more notable and newsworthy.
But they are such fun!
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Old 07-14-2017, 11:13 PM   #24
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I understand the excitement for new highs, I don't want complacency. I just read from WSJ that if you invest in VWO, emerging markets for $1000 in 2007, you basically just got your $1000 back, that's assume you re-invest your dividends.
Yes, that's 10 year in dead space. I'm sure you can find similar perio for US stocks.
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Old 07-15-2017, 02:06 PM   #25
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Per Dan Wiener, the S&P 500 has hit over 50 all-time highs in the past two years, and including dividends over 208 record highs since the '09 market bottom. Generally, the market is up 2/3 of the time, so there are always new highs.

Seems to be a non-event to me.

That doesn't mean I don't think stock and bond valuations are high (I do), it is just that the financial press's fixation on new highs is just noise.
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Old 07-15-2017, 02:17 PM   #26
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Record highs just make more room for new record fall(s).
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Old 07-15-2017, 03:41 PM   #27
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Record highs just make more room for new record fall(s).
No negative thoughts , Im enjoying the week end. Feel free to depress me Monday morning.
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Old 07-15-2017, 04:02 PM   #28
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Should we ban people posting negative thoughts? Of course I'm just kidding at you BCG.
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Old 07-15-2017, 04:35 PM   #29
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Winter is coming ................keep your powder dry......
Winter is coming is a Game of Thrones reference......which the new season starts tomorrow....
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Old 07-15-2017, 04:55 PM   #30
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Winter is coming is a Game of Thrones reference......which the new season starts tomorrow....
Oh, in that case, Bring on the Winter, Let is snow!
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Old 07-16-2017, 08:48 AM   #31
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I understand the excitement for new highs, I don't want complacency. I just read from WSJ that if you invest in VWO, emerging markets for $1000 in 2007, you basically just got your $1000 back, that's assume you re-invest your dividends.
Yes, that's 10 year in dead space. I'm sure you can find similar perio for US stocks.
I'm so glad the last 10 years my non-us allocation was about 0.5% or less...
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Old 07-16-2017, 09:29 AM   #32
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Two things I remember from pre 2008

Cab drivers (and others) were flipping houses

House wives where day trading stocks

So those are my indicators to watch for.
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Old 07-16-2017, 10:06 AM   #33
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Oh, another record?

Confess that I've been busy lately and haven't followed the record climbs. My strategy is to talk no action regardless based on record or not.

Just for kicks, probably should follow the ups and downs a bit closer.
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Old 07-20-2017, 06:44 AM   #34
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I think the dow and sp500 to some extent are like beauty contests, except the beauty is measured in how much mass the participants have. (mass = profits/potential in this reality and every oz of fat is converted to cold cash in my whimsical story).

When one of the contestants gets sick or even terminal and has a significant mass loss, they just replace that contestant with a new comer with even greater mass and potential.

No wonder the average mass of the group goes up! : )

It would be more transparent if the changes occurred say when any stock went below $40 a share, it was replaced with a stock that cost $60 a share. Oh wow the index average went up," Who woulda thunk that?" : )

Now the changes just seem to happen. I presume the market specialists know and unload some or go short way before it happens and that if it happens would be a drag on all index type fund holders since your fund has to sell the ousted company and buy the new darling fresh off the casting couch. (oooh la la)

The other reason I expect stock prices to go up is money is just worth less and less over time because everyone has so much. I now pay in taxes annually about what I paid for my first house. Movies in my small home town were like fifteen cents, now like $15.

Finally the index amounts are now so high that a 0.5 to 1.5% hiccup in the market seems huge. 1% of 200 = 2 1% of 22000 = 220

The moral of my story is when evaluating a company, first determine if they are "solid" lol.
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