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Not loving the up and up of the markets
Old 02-21-2017, 10:31 AM   #1
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Not loving the up and up of the markets

OK unlike the other thread it's hard for me to see the market going up like nuts while I sit on the sidelines. Unfortunately I cashed out 70% of most of my assets late last year. I did so to consolidate all of my old 401ks, IRAs etc into vanguard. The plan was to DCA it all back in but I was waiting for a 'break' which I was hoping would come in Feb

I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
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Old 02-21-2017, 10:56 AM   #2
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OK unlike the other thread it's hard for me to see the market going up like nuts while I sit on the sidelines. Unfortunately I cashed out 70% of most of my assets late last year. I did so to consolidate all of my old 401ks, IRAs etc into vanguard. The plan was to DCA it all back in but I was waiting for a 'break' which I was hoping would come in Feb

I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. Built a home in early 2008 for big bucks so I had to cash out a lot of investment income. Then when I sold the old home for big bucks in 2009 I kept it all in cash, missing most of the Recession losses. I must be a genius! Then the market started going up and up and up, while I sat there waiting for the inevitable drop so I could buy back in. It took me over 4 years to realize I could only time the market through luck and started DCA'ing back in. I missed a lot of growth, but not all of it. Just learn your lesson, take your lumps, and do it. I wouldn't pay down the mortgage, but that's me.
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Old 02-21-2017, 11:02 AM   #3
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Don't worry. Stocks should be imploding in about a week. I recently came into a wad of cash which I am fixing to plow into the market. That usually does the trick.
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Old 02-21-2017, 11:27 AM   #4
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Yes, I figure I'll invest the surplus cash in two stages. The first 20% will trigger a Market Sell-off like it always does -- HA !!

Then I'll invest the other 80% buying more of the cheapened shares.
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Old 02-21-2017, 11:55 AM   #5
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Haha, yeah that's what I think will happen with me too (this is based on past personal experience) as soon as I dump my money in it'll lose 20-30% right away.
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:36 PM   #6
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If you pay of the mortgage you'll get 3.75% return immediately... that should lessen the pain.

Personally I'd DCA even though the market is rather high right now. By doing it in chunks over time for sure *some* of the chunks will be a better deal than *other* chunks... If the market continues up - your early chunks will be in the money... if the market crashes - your later chunks will be bargains. Figure out your period (monthly?) and your allotments (10 months, 20 months?) and start the DCA process.
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Old 02-21-2017, 12:53 PM   #7
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I am down to 68% equities and holding. In fact my target 60/40 split has just got screwed up by doing nothing! I promise I will rebalance anytime now, just a little longer...
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:13 PM   #8
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To OP: Just be patient. The market is due for a turn. In the financial arena, people (especially small investors piling in now) are expecting everything to be just perfect going forward, exports will boom, imports will drop, GDP will grow 4%, all the lost jobs will come back, companies will send back all the money stored abroad, corporate taxes will drop to 15%, regulation will be rolled back, job-killing Obamacare will be repealed and replaced by something cheaper and better ... But reality will soon intrude, probably later this year.

Not that I am unhappy with the market going up, but I am realistic and the markets won't go up in a straight line forever.
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Old 02-21-2017, 01:46 PM   #9
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I need a limit order to buy NUMV and my instinct is to set it low but I want it in reasonable time and the market keeps going up. Someone just give me a number! Right now it's "$25.67 (Good 'til Canceled)" but I don't see that happening.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:11 PM   #10
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NUMV is such a thinly traded ETF that one could pay too much or too little for it. You wanted a socially-conscious ETF, else could have gone with an ETF that has more volume and liquidity, such as IJJ which is also a mid-cap value ETF.
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Old 02-21-2017, 02:37 PM   #11
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I am down to 68% equities and holding. In fact my target 60/40 split has just got screwed up by doing nothing! I promise I will rebalance anytime now, just a little longer...
I too have a 60/40. When it gets to 61/39 I rebalance back to 60/40. Might miss some upside in an extended bull market but it helps me to feel in control. Some don't need that but I do.

On Friday our stocks were at 60.6% of the portfolio, and another good day today. Might have to pull the trigger very soon.

Oh, and I do market time but the last signal to do so was back in December 2007. I didn't have my system in place back then. The system says to stay invested right now so you can all sleep well tonight.

For the OP: nobody knows what is next. Timing might work but only at the extremes and in my opinion we are not there yet.
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Old 02-21-2017, 03:05 PM   #12
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I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
In early 2003 I got tired of the market going down seemingly every year (it had been 3) and refinanced from a 30 to a 15. That was nearly the bottom for the next 4 years.
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Old 02-21-2017, 03:23 PM   #13
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I'm still new to figuring out and understanding all the moving money in and out of 401k's and IRA's. Are you sitting on this money or is it at Vanguard? You couldn't rollover "in Kind"? Don't you have to pay taxes if you use the rollover money to pay off/down your mortgage?
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Old 02-21-2017, 03:38 PM   #14
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Of course you would pay taxes if you cash out your retirement funds to pay your mortgage. Bigly, er, big league.

I think these posters talked about using after-tax money in their brokerage account.
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Old 02-21-2017, 05:17 PM   #15
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Every time I start wondering if I should avoid putting money into the market while we're at "highs", I look at the long term chart and remind myself that for most of the time the market has existed it has been at or around "all time highs" for the market at the time. Then I dutifully put my money in the market so I can look back 5 or 10 years later and smile at my wise decision.
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Old 02-21-2017, 05:34 PM   #16
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Old 02-21-2017, 05:40 PM   #17
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Every time I start wondering if I should avoid putting money into the market while we're at "highs", I look at the long term chart and remind myself that for most of the time the market has existed it has been at or around "all time highs" for the market at the time. Then I dutifully put my money in the market so I can look back 5 or 10 years later and smile at my wise decision.
Right. Catching those little blips down (red arrows below) is not easy and distinguishing them from the recessionary declines is harder.

Here is a long term semilog chart of VFINX (SP500 with dividends):

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Old 02-21-2017, 06:42 PM   #18
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I'm still new to figuring out and understanding all the moving money in and out of 401k's and IRA's. Are you sitting on this money or is it at Vanguard? You couldn't rollover "in Kind"? Don't you have to pay taxes if you use the rollover money to pay off/down your mortgage?
I have all the transferred funds sitting in a VG Rollover-IRA account. The transfers were done in-kind from one company to another without taking any distributions so no tax or penalties. However, I sold the assets when I felt was the right time and then move them over to VG. Sometimes the processing took about 2 weeks since they insisted sending the in-kind transfer check to my home address and I had to forward it to VG. For this reason I sold off the funds rather than letting them do it at their choosing.

Regarding the mortgage question, I wouldn't use the rollover-IRA funds to pay down/off the mortgage but instead the cash reserves in my cash/brokerage accounts. However, most likely I'll leave the mortgage alone.
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Old 02-21-2017, 07:31 PM   #19
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Don't worry. Stocks should be imploding in about a week. I recently came into a wad of cash which I am fixing to plow into the market. That usually does the trick.


Haha! Lets pool our money and it's a guaranteed thing!
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Old 02-21-2017, 07:41 PM   #20
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Be fearful when others are greedy (extended bull markets) and greedy when others are fearful (inevitable bear markets) - Warren Buffet
Since the election, Warren has thrown $12 billion into the market. So, he was still greedy recently.

See: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/31/warre...n-victory.html
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