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Not loving the up and up of the markets
02-21-2017, 10:31 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
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Not loving the up and up of the markets
OK unlike the other thread it's hard for me to see the market going up like nuts while I sit on the sidelines. Unfortunately I cashed out 70% of most of my assets late last year. I did so to consolidate all of my old 401ks, IRAs etc into vanguard. The plan was to DCA it all back in but I was waiting for a 'break' which I was hoping would come in Feb
I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
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02-21-2017, 10:56 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dvalley
OK unlike the other thread it's hard for me to see the market going up like nuts while I sit on the sidelines. Unfortunately I cashed out 70% of most of my assets late last year. I did so to consolidate all of my old 401ks, IRAs etc into vanguard. The plan was to DCA it all back in but I was waiting for a 'break' which I was hoping would come in Feb
I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
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Been there, done that, got the T-shirt. Built a home in early 2008 for big bucks so I had to cash out a lot of investment income. Then when I sold the old home for big bucks in 2009 I kept it all in cash, missing most of the Recession losses. I must be a genius! Then the market started going up and up and up, while I sat there waiting for the inevitable drop so I could buy back in. It took me over 4 years to realize I could only time the market through luck and started DCA'ing back in. I missed a lot of growth, but not all of it. Just learn your lesson, take your lumps, and do it. I wouldn't pay down the mortgage, but that's me.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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02-21-2017, 11:02 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: The Shire
Posts: 1,504
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Don't worry. Stocks should be imploding in about a week. I recently came into a wad of cash which I am fixing to plow into the market. That usually does the trick.
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Paying it forward is the best investment.
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02-21-2017, 11:27 AM
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#4
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Charleston, SC
Posts: 524
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Yes, I figure I'll invest the surplus cash in two stages. The first 20% will trigger a Market Sell-off like it always does -- HA !!
Then I'll invest the other 80% buying more of the cheapened shares.
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Semiquincentennial -- A Republic, if we can keep it.
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02-21-2017, 11:55 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
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Haha, yeah that's what I think will happen with me too (this is based on past personal experience) as soon as I dump my money in it'll lose 20-30% right away.
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02-21-2017, 12:36 PM
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#6
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Moderator
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: San Diego
Posts: 14,140
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If you pay of the mortgage you'll get 3.75% return immediately... that should lessen the pain.
Personally I'd DCA even though the market is rather high right now. By doing it in chunks over time for sure *some* of the chunks will be a better deal than *other* chunks... If the market continues up - your early chunks will be in the money... if the market crashes - your later chunks will be bargains. Figure out your period (monthly?) and your allotments (10 months, 20 months?) and start the DCA process.
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Retired June 2014. No longer an enginerd - now I'm just a nerd.
micro pensions 6%, rental income 20%
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02-21-2017, 12:53 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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I am down to 68% equities and holding. In fact my target 60/40 split has just got screwed up by doing nothing! I promise I will rebalance anytime now, just a little longer...
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For the fun of it...Keith
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02-21-2017, 01:13 PM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2015
Location: Atlanta suburbs
Posts: 633
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To OP: Just be patient. The market is due for a turn. In the financial arena, people (especially small investors piling in now) are expecting everything to be just perfect going forward, exports will boom, imports will drop, GDP will grow 4%, all the lost jobs will come back, companies will send back all the money stored abroad, corporate taxes will drop to 15%, regulation will be rolled back, job-killing Obamacare will be repealed and replaced by something cheaper and better ... But reality will soon intrude, probably later this year.
Not that I am unhappy with the market going up, but I am realistic and the markets won't go up in a straight line forever.
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02-21-2017, 01:46 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 1,844
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I need a limit order to buy NUMV and my instinct is to set it low but I want it in reasonable time and the market keeps going up. Someone just give me a number! Right now it's "$25.67 (Good 'til Canceled)" but I don't see that happening.
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02-21-2017, 02:11 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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NUMV is such a thinly traded ETF that one could pay too much or too little for it. You wanted a socially-conscious ETF, else could have gone with an ETF that has more volume and liquidity, such as IJJ which is also a mid-cap value ETF.
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"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-21-2017, 02:37 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,797
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan
I am down to 68% equities and holding. In fact my target 60/40 split has just got screwed up by doing nothing! I promise I will rebalance anytime now, just a little longer...
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I too have a 60/40. When it gets to 61/39 I rebalance back to 60/40. Might miss some upside in an extended bull market but it helps me to feel in control. Some don't need that but I do.
On Friday our stocks were at 60.6% of the portfolio, and another good day today. Might have to pull the trigger very soon.
Oh, and I do market time but the last signal to do so was back in December 2007. I didn't have my system in place back then. The system says to stay invested right now so you can all sleep well tonight.
For the OP: nobody knows what is next. Timing might work but only at the extremes and in my opinion we are not there yet.
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02-21-2017, 03:05 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,939
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dvalley
I think I'm going to be patient and in the mean time possibly pay down my 3.75% mortgage to lessen the hurt.
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In early 2003 I got tired of the market going down seemingly every year (it had been 3) and refinanced from a 30 to a 15. That was nearly the bottom for the next 4 years.
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"The mountains are calling, and I must go." John Muir
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02-21-2017, 03:23 PM
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#13
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,760
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I'm still new to figuring out and understanding all the moving money in and out of 401k's and IRA's. Are you sitting on this money or is it at Vanguard? You couldn't rollover "in Kind"? Don't you have to pay taxes if you use the rollover money to pay off/down your mortgage?
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02-21-2017, 03:38 PM
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#14
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Of course you would pay taxes if you cash out your retirement funds to pay your mortgage. Bigly, er, big league.
I think these posters talked about using after-tax money in their brokerage account.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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02-21-2017, 05:17 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 1,214
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Every time I start wondering if I should avoid putting money into the market while we're at "highs", I look at the long term chart and remind myself that for most of the time the market has existed it has been at or around "all time highs" for the market at the time. Then I dutifully put my money in the market so I can look back 5 or 10 years later and smile at my wise decision.
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02-21-2017, 05:34 PM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 139
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Be fearful when others are greedy (extended bull markets) and greedy when others are fearful (inevitable bear markets) - Warren Buffet
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02-21-2017, 05:40 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 8,797
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Quote:
Originally Posted by exnavynuke
Every time I start wondering if I should avoid putting money into the market while we're at "highs", I look at the long term chart and remind myself that for most of the time the market has existed it has been at or around "all time highs" for the market at the time. Then I dutifully put my money in the market so I can look back 5 or 10 years later and smile at my wise decision.
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Right. Catching those little blips down (red arrows below) is not easy and distinguishing them from the recessionary declines is harder.
Here is a long term semilog chart of VFINX (SP500 with dividends):
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02-21-2017, 06:42 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,046
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Quote:
Originally Posted by splitwdw
I'm still new to figuring out and understanding all the moving money in and out of 401k's and IRA's. Are you sitting on this money or is it at Vanguard? You couldn't rollover "in Kind"? Don't you have to pay taxes if you use the rollover money to pay off/down your mortgage?
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I have all the transferred funds sitting in a VG Rollover-IRA account. The transfers were done in-kind from one company to another without taking any distributions so no tax or penalties. However, I sold the assets when I felt was the right time and then move them over to VG. Sometimes the processing took about 2 weeks since they insisted sending the in-kind transfer check to my home address and I had to forward it to VG. For this reason I sold off the funds rather than letting them do it at their choosing.
Regarding the mortgage question, I wouldn't use the rollover-IRA funds to pay down/off the mortgage but instead the cash reserves in my cash/brokerage accounts. However, most likely I'll leave the mortgage alone.
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02-21-2017, 07:31 PM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Augusta
Posts: 348
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Haha! Lets pool our money and it's a guaranteed thing!
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02-21-2017, 07:41 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oscar1
Be fearful when others are greedy (extended bull markets) and greedy when others are fearful (inevitable bear markets) - Warren Buffet
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Since the election, Warren has thrown $12 billion into the market. So, he was still greedy recently.
See: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/31/warre...n-victory.html
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky (1879-1940)
"Those Who Can Make You Believe Absurdities Can Make You Commit Atrocities" - Voltaire (1694-1778)
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