October 10th Market Plunge

[steady saver]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HadEnuff When we had the bump in late January-early February 2018 I did some soul searching and decided I was not comfortable with my AA. It wasn't predicated on a belief that the market was about to crash, but after assessing my needs, and what would happen if the market continued to climb, or stay put, or fall back, I found an AA that seemed to better suit my situation, and my personal risk tolerance. i guess I hit the sweet spot, because this isn't bothering me.

Do you mind sharing what your AA was and how you have it invested now?

[DeborahB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by calmloki Either you all have nerves of steel or there is some whistling in the graveyard going on. I don't like it when $40k vanishes in a week. My morning mood is not improved when I go to Discover online bank to check on a fund transfer and see this message: Account service is limited at this time. Some of our website features are currently unavailable. Any previously scheduled transactions, bill payments, and loan payments will process as normal Your balance and account history has been updated as of 10/11/2018 You can view 45 days of account history New funds transfers and loan payments cannot be scheduled We appreciate your patience and regret any inconvenience. Makes a big ol' chicken man want to start stuffing the mattress rather than counting on digital cash representations.

I have nerves of steel. If it moves toward 18,000 on the Dow I’ll think differently. But why sell at a low?

[TwoByFour]

This is how I look at it - I retired Feb 1, 2014. At that time the S&P 500 was about 1800, now it is about 2700 for a 50% increase. Our total assets (liquid, not house) have gone up 25% in that period (we paid off our mortgage since then). So I am very happy with the market and have no complaints.

[38Chevy454]

Quote:

Originally Posted by samclem I'm about 75% stocks and haven't lost anything in the last two days. I've still got every share I had on Tuesday, I have exactly the same ownership % in thousands of US and foreign companies.

This is also my conclusion. Sure psychologically it feels better when the market is less volatile and on a steady upward path, but until I sell and have the value that day is when my profit/loss is realized.

[audreyh1]

I'm a total return investor, and my income is based on my end of year retirement value.

So I look at my total retirement portfolio and see it in terms of gains or losses compared to the beginning of the year, and also how much next year's income is rising or falling. Of course the magic number is whatever the portfolio is on Dec 31, it can be going haywire in the interim without having an impact.

But it doesn't particularly bother me. I've already been through the spectacular rollercoasters, I have a relatively conservative AA in anticipation of future drops - when being completely unknown. I just rebalance each year, and live with the variable income.

[DeborahB]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Breedlove All indicators are good , so why did the market drop . People working company profits up , interest rates jumped.

More sellers than buyers. It’s simplistic but true.

[RobbieB]

If this stuff scares you too much you shouldn't be in the market.

[NW-Bound]

Well, accurately speaking, there are as many sellers as buyers. But the price they agree on is now lower.

Or the sellers are more motivated (to borrow from real estate parlance), and the buyers are more reluctant and need more encouragement.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RobbieB If this stuff scares you too much you shouldn't be in the market.

I am not scared. I am excited. I ask myself how I can profit.

"Wherever there is danger, there lurks opportunity; whenever there is opportunity, there lurks danger. The two are inseparable. They go together." -- Earl Nightingale

[Hamlet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I am not scared. I am excited. I ask myself how I can profit. "Wherever there is danger, there lurks opportunity; whenever there is opportunity, there lurks danger. The two are inseparable. They go together." -- Earl Nightingale

I’m not excited yet. I’m vaguely interested.

If the S&P500 gets back to 2000, I’ll be excited ( and nauseous ). My best investments always seem to be when the market makes me want to throw up. 😀

[Archman]

As of 10-19, I lost over $10000 in two weeks. But, only a paper loss. On Monday, 10-22, I bought more equities. Darn, I should have waited till today, 10-24.

[Free bird]

How could anyone not know a real correction was coming? I mean really? This fruit is mushy ripe. 10 years of up. Without so much as a hiccup. Punch bowl is getting watered down.

[Free bird]

Playing the bounce now.

[COcheesehead]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archman As of 10-19, I lost over $10000 in two weeks. But, only a paper loss. On Monday, 10-22, I bought more equities. Darn, I should have waited till today, 10-24.

Don't feel too bad, I am down over 6 figures. Now comes the time to think long term and not to panic.

[HadEnuff]

Quote:

Originally Posted by HadEnuff When we had the bump in late January-early February 2018 I did some soul searching and decided I was not comfortable with my AA. It wasn't predicated on a belief that the market was about to crash, but after assessing my needs, and what would happen if the market continued to climb, or stay put, or fall back, I found an AA that seemed to better suit my situation, and my personal risk tolerance. i guess I hit the sweet spot, because this isn't bothering me.

Quote:

Originally Posted by steady saver Do you mind sharing what your AA was and how you have it invested now?

Sorry to take so long to reply, I wasn't paying attention..
Sure.
My AA had been 40-50-10 (stocks-bonds-cash), and I re-allocated something like 20-55-25.. after February there was a good run-up, so my allocation had moved a bit, and I didn't re-allocate, so what I gained in the stock portion has pretty much gone back to where it was when I re-allocated. The S&P is almost exactly where it was when I changed it.

I'm 65, and my budget allows me to live my life nicely at about 3% WR, so I just don't feel I need to be more exposed than I am. However, if there is a significant pull back, I will likely bump that stock back up to 40% or so.

[easysurfer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Archman As of 10-19, I lost over $10000 in two weeks. But, only a paper loss. On Monday, 10-22, I bought more equities. Darn, I should have waited till today, 10-24.

Yes. Just a paper loss until you sell.

I'm waiting for the big one. A nice, good correction to separate the true buy and hold investors vs the ones that call themselves buy and hold investors until the times get tough .

[tominboise]

I am down $130k (on paper) on our portfolio, but still up nicely if you look back at the 2 year or longer returns. I am about even for the year, actually, with respect to value. I have sold almost nothing this year and continue to buy as programmed.

If I had future vision and would have used it to move all my equities into bonds or cash a month ago, my tax bill this year would have eaten a big bunch of the value I would have locked in, so riding it out and making a few strategic moves is my plan at this point. I am about 60/30/10 allocated (stocks/bonds/cash & short term).

Oh, and i am still working.....My plan was to get out when I hit 60 or $3mil, whichever came first. I am at 58 and $2.6mil, so it's getting close.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Free bird How could anyone not know a real correction was coming? I mean really? This fruit is mushy ripe. 10 years of up. Without so much as a hiccup. Punch bowl is getting watered down.

What ya mean 10 years of up?

On 5/18/2015, the S&P was at 2126. On 2/8/2016, the S&P was at 1865, a drop of 12% after 9 months of bouncing around.

I remember that in early 2016, the global economy slowed down such that the demand for oil dropped. Gasoline in the US was down to a bit more than $1/gal. It was so wrong when gasoline cost just a bit more than bottled water, and I am not talking about Perrier or Evian either.

[Free bird]

Your right we have along way to go on this correction. One 12% correction in 10 years is easily forgotten.

[NW-Bound]

No, not just one correction in 10 years. There were more than the one above.

On 4/19/2010, the S&P was at 1217. On 6/28/2010, it was at 1023, or 16% lower.

On 4/25/2011, the S&P was at 1364. On 8/15/2011, it was at 1124, or 17.6% lower.

On 3/26/2012, the S&P was 1408. On 5/29/2012, it was at 1278, or almost 10% lower.

And just earlier this year, the S&P was at 2873 on 1/26/2018. It was at 2581 on 2/8/2018, or 10% lower.

So, I counted at least 5 during this long bull run.