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Opinion on future of equities?
02-10-2012, 09:11 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: aberdeen
Posts: 161
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Opinion on future of equities?
I know the future is uncertain in anything.
Are you bullish on individual stocks?
Index stocks funds?
Foreign stocks?
Balance funds?
What's your opinion?
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02-10-2012, 09:17 PM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: LaLa Land
Posts: 4,378
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I'm Swiss!
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Work is something you do to get enough $ so you don't have to....Me.
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02-10-2012, 09:58 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,192
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IMHO, equities have a future and, like JP Morgan, I am confident that their future will involve fluctuations. Beyond that, who knows? I hope it's a good one though because we'll all have some pretty serious problems if equity markets don't provide reasonable returns to investors over the longer term.
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"Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly."
Max Gunther - The Zurich Axioms
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02-11-2012, 03:14 AM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Cville
Posts: 207
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IMHO Long term, equities follow earnings. In the short term, they follow expectations of future earnings which can be affected by any number of fears and or greed.
If this is true, then you would have to expect corporate earnings to increase over the long term. Some will and some won't, but as a whole I expect they will increase, and stock prices will increase as a result.
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02-11-2012, 05:11 AM
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#5
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Land of stinky onions
Posts: 10,858
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As long as businesses find a way to create and add value they will prosper and equities will follow.
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It's not the cards you're dealt in life but what you do with them that matters
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02-11-2012, 06:09 AM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Mississippi
Posts: 6,174
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I own some individual stocks for the dividend and growth. But can't say I'm bullish.
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Full time wuss............
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02-11-2012, 06:41 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 7,326
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I expect positive returns on all asset classes long term. I also know that almost anything can happen short term, but I'm not a market timer so I don't worry about it. That said, I plan to reduce risk from my asset allocation in the decades ahead. I am not shooting for the moon, just some financial security. The Portfolio Solutions 30-Year Market Forecast for 2012: Low cost investment manager, Portfolio Solutions
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It's a pity to waste your life living the same tiny day over and over again. James Taylor
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 55% equity funds / 40% bond funds / 5% cash
approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Target WR: approx 2.5%
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02-26-2012, 12:35 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Leeward Oahu
Posts: 1,581
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Advising my kids, I would suggest that, long term, equities offer the best hope of building a comfortable and early retirement. Having said that, I don't think of myself at 65 as having a "long-term" any more. There have been a few 30 year near-sideways markets (looks to me like we just might be in one). Still, equities are just about the only game in town for the CHANCE of long term growth.
My "solution" to the problem was to over-prepare for ER and have backups (to my backups) e.g., delay SS to 70 and "invest" in LTC insurance, etc., etc.. YMMV
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Ko'olau's Law -
Anything which can be used can be misused. Anything which can be misused will be.
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I'm bullish on select stocks
03-30-2012, 10:26 AM
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#9
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 33
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I'm bullish on select stocks
There are great companies (USA and abroad) that will do well. Their earnings (free cash flow) will reflect that and, as someone said, long term the price of their stock will follow earnings (free cash flow)
I am less bullish on stock market in general.
I don't generally follow ETFs or Mutual funds because their mandates restrict them (we are a large cap value fund, etc.)yet if I don't know the manager (and I don't) I wouldn't give them my money without mandates/restrictions so its a self-fulfilling failure. and that's BEFORE you get into premiums/discounts to NAV.
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...way down here, you need a reason to move
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03-30-2012, 11:31 AM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Ashburn
Posts: 419
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My best guess is that stocks will trend slowly higher for the next 8-10 years at a snails pace maybe 3-5% a year. Around 2020-2025 we'll see another bubble like the late 90's with huge growth (20% a year returns in the markets) followed by another collapse around 2030. I don't anticipate another huge recession coming anytime soon... low likelihood we'll see a significant drop in the market anytime in the next 15 years (which is definitely against popular opinion). We've seen the worst of it... for this quarter century
If history is any indication... this cycle continues indefinitely.
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