Please help with experiment.

Grizz · 10-24-2007, 09:46 PM

I read a book a while ago called "The Wisdom of Crowds". The author pointed out several examples where the averaged opinions of a large group of people (regardless of experience with the topic) is nearly always more accurate than that of an expert.

I haven't got an expert to compare our group's prediction with, but I think that it will be interesting to see how accurate we are, and perhaps if we prove to be proficient at this, then maybe we collectively look at a stock or two.

With that in mind, I ask that you assist in an experiment where everyone predicts what the price of gold will close at in 6 months from today, Apr.24, 2008. I'll average any predictions up to Nov.24 and post them then. On Apr. 24, 2008 I'll post how we did.

Please don't post anything but your price prediction (no reasons or opinions), just a price.

The official price at posting time today according to Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold Sell Gold, Silver, Platinum - Charts, Graphs, Prices, Quotes, Gold Stocks, Mining Stocks, bullion dealers was $763.40.

My crystal ball says $804.10

Lakedog · 10-24-2007, 09:53 PM

$774.85

CybrMike · 10-25-2007, 12:05 AM

655.25

ladelfina · 10-25-2007, 12:07 AM

$827.39

haha · 10-25-2007, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grizz

I read a book a while ago called "The Wisdom of Crowds". The author pointed out several examples where the averaged opinions of a large group of people (regardless of experience with the topic) is nearly always more accurate than that of an expert.

I believe this is only said to be true if the guessers are blind to the others' opinions.

Peaceful_Warrior · 10-25-2007, 02:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha

I believe this is only said to be true if the guessers are blind to the others' opinions.

I bid $4.53 - do I win the prize

hogtied · 10-25-2007, 02:48 AM

$792.

clifp · 10-25-2007, 04:16 AM

VaCollector · 10-25-2007, 04:54 AM

$858.60

Robert the Red · 10-25-2007, 07:10 AM

$666.66

kcowan · 10-25-2007, 07:29 AM

Grizz · 10-25-2007, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by haha

I believe this is only said to be true if the guessers are blind to the others' opinions.

You're right, that is the ideal situation. I've asked that reasons and opinions not be included in order to keep the experiment as "true" as possible. Seeing others #'s may skew the outcome, but hey, maybe it won't.

If we are way off the mark then if nothing else, we can consider it to be all in fun and forever bow down, salute, or curtsy when we see a post from the member with the closest prediction.

Achiever51 · 10-25-2007, 08:40 AM

$816.84

Coach · 10-25-2007, 08:42 AM

680.24

MasterBlaster · 10-25-2007, 09:27 AM

Gold will be worthless 6 months from now. It really has no intrinsic value other than perhaps for some specialized electronic applications.

A process to make it out of discarded Starbucks cups will be found. Since Starbucks cups are so plentiful there will be an excess supply of gold and you will have to pay "that guy" to haul it away.

So my prediction is negative $10.00 an once

bpp3 · 10-25-2007, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grizz

The official price at posting time today according to Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold Sell Gold, Silver, Platinum - Charts, Graphs, Prices, Quotes, Gold Stocks, Mining Stocks, bullion dealers was $763.40.

$763.40

Bigritchie · 10-25-2007, 09:45 AM

$1,000+

CuppaJoe · 10-25-2007, 10:00 AM

Abstain

Texas Proud · 10-25-2007, 10:06 AM

cute fuzzy bunny · 10-25-2007, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bpp3

$763.40

Beat me to it. Persistence is still the best predictor.

10-24-2007, 09:46 PM	#1
Grizz Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 255	Please help with experiment. I read a book a while ago called "The Wisdom of Crowds". The author pointed out several examples where the averaged opinions of a large group of people (regardless of experience with the topic) is nearly always more accurate than that of an expert. I haven't got an expert to compare our group's prediction with, but I think that it will be interesting to see how accurate we are, and perhaps if we prove to be proficient at this, then maybe we collectively look at a stock or two. With that in mind, I ask that you assist in an experiment where everyone predicts what the price of gold will close at in 6 months from today, Apr.24, 2008. I'll average any predictions up to Nov.24 and post them then. On Apr. 24, 2008 I'll post how we did. Please don't post anything but your price prediction (no reasons or opinions), just a price. The official price at posting time today according to Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold Sell Gold, Silver, Platinum - Charts, Graphs, Prices, Quotes, Gold Stocks, Mining Stocks, bullion dealers was $763.40. My crystal ball says $804.10

10-25-2007, 04:16 AM	#8
clifp Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,616	748

10-25-2007, 07:29 AM	#11
kcowan Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Pacific latitude 20/49 Posts: 1,482	816 __________________ For the fun of it...Keith - My profile - Mi casa es su casa

10-25-2007, 08:40 AM	#13
Achiever51 Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Southeastern Michigan Posts: 700	$816.84 __________________ The best things in life....are not things.

10-25-2007, 09:45 AM	#17
Bigritchie Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 367	$1,000+ __________________ No Soup for you! Come back 1 year!

10-24-2007, 09:53 PM	#2
Lakedog Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: May 2007 Location: Lake Martin, AL Posts: 65	$774.85

10-25-2007, 12:05 AM	#3
CybrMike Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 268	655.25

10-25-2007, 12:07 AM	#4
ladelfina Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,961	$827.39

10-25-2007, 02:48 AM	#7
hogtied Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 71	$792.

10-25-2007, 04:54 AM	#9
VaCollector Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 220	$858.60

10-25-2007, 07:10 AM	#10
Robert the Red Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 280	$666.66

10-25-2007, 08:42 AM	#14
Coach Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Colorado, USA Posts: 592	680.24

10-25-2007, 09:27 AM	#15
MasterBlaster Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,668	Gold will be worthless 6 months from now. It really has no intrinsic value other than perhaps for some specialized electronic applications. A process to make it out of discarded Starbucks cups will be found. Since Starbucks cups are so plentiful there will be an excess supply of gold and you will have to pay "that guy" to haul it away. So my prediction is negative $10.00 an once

10-25-2007, 10:00 AM	#18
CuppaJoe Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Halfway to the Stars Posts: 917	Abstain __________________ "I cook with wine, sometimes I even add it to my food." -W. C. Fields

10-25-2007, 10:06 AM	#19
Texas Proud Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 2,923	850

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